Trump runs for POTUS/ Trumped Up! Part VII

[Cl1mh4224rd]

And she actually makes a somewhat believable case. Though Donald can obviously read (although perhaps not well). We've seen him give speeches from teleprompters.

This is a man who needs people to fast-forward through the boring parts of action movies. He almost certainly finds the act of reading to be maddeningly tedious and incredibly boring.

He can read; he just doesn't.

 

[PhantomWolf]

It's clear that Hillary has been badly damaged by the emails and the mere suggestion that there *may* be something on Weiner's PC is enough to narrow the polling gap - on what should be a poisonous candidate significantly.

It's not that clear at all, though there has been a change in her polling, about 0.5%.

The main issue is that Trump is getting the support of Republicans who had gone to Johnson or had decided not to vote. In the last week Johnson has dropped from 6.5% to 4.7% while Trump has gained that and some from the undecideds in going from 38.9% to 41.5%.

It was predicted that the third party candidates would fade, and they have, unfortunately it seems that they are going to Trump, probably because a lot of them that supported Johnson previously are Republicans, and there seems to be some form of party loyalty that over-rides their brains.

Has the U.S. public forgotten about:

- Trump University
- The "Mexican" judge
- Attacking a Gold Star family
- Fatshaming Miss Universe
- Trump using charity money to pay fines, build fountains and bu picture for himself
- Trump admitting sexually assaulting women

Are the U.S. electorate so blind that they will ignore many, many reasons not to vote for one candidate because of one possible, but not proven, reason not to vote for another ?

I'm not sure that Republicans really care about any of it, he's not a democrat and that is good enough for them.

 

[newyorkguy]

The New York Times did not say the FBI found the accusations against the Trump-Russia involvement to be baseless. And the FBI investigation apparently continues. This is what the Times reported today:

Law enforcement officials say that none of the investigations so far have found any conclusive or direct link between Mr. Trump and the Russian government. And even the hacking into Democratic emails, F.B.I. and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump. article link

But the Times article also makes clear that the question of a possible tie between the Trump campaign and the Russian government or Russian citizens is no conspiracy fantasy.

In classified sessions in August and September, intelligence officials also briefed congressional leaders on the possibility of financial ties between Russians and people connected to Mr. Trump. They focused particular attention on what cyberexperts said appeared to be a mysterious computer back channel between the Trump Organization and the Alfa Bank, which is one of Russia’s biggest banks and whose owners have longstanding ties to Mr. Putin.

The Times report then goes on to say, that FBI agents found an "odd stream of activity to a Trump Organization server and Alfa Bank." The report then states:

The F.B.I. ultimately concluded that there could be an innocuous explanation, like a marketing email or spam, for the computer contacts.

That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. "There could be...."

 

[Ambrosia]

Right now they have him at an almost 30% (28.9%) chance of winning. I'm curious as to why a lot of you seem certain that Hillary is going to win. To me it seems impossible to be so confident, for either side. Of course Hillary might win. But Trump might, too. Why the certainty?

If it gets to 60/40 then I'd start getting nervous.

but I think that Trump is so far behind and America is traditionally so partisan that he's only now picking up votes that a Republican candidate should already have had locked down, that it's far too little too late.

He needs to sway a lot more minority voters. Fat chance of that happening.

He needs to sway a lot more female voters. Even less chance of that.

Plus it's in the interest of the media for the to be a close race, so they are generally overplaying polls that show Trumps numbers improving.

I try to avoid the "Your're Another " routine, but I can't help mention the Britex vote...............

Brexit was a whole different thing (and I voted to leave)

While you had the nationalists and the anti establishment voters on the Brexit side, and while Brexit voters were underrepresented in polls, and the same may be true of the US election. there wasn't one party in the Brexit vote that did *really* badly with women voters or minority voters like Trump. People were split roughly 50/50 over Brexit, from all walks of life and from nearly all demographics. The same is not true of the US election.

Trump is rallying, but he's picking up votes from 3rd party candidates and Republicans who seem to be voting for him despite everything. He's not winning enough Democrats or undecideds to make enough of a difference imo.

Trump cannot win without putting a huge dent in Clinton, and repeating the same old schtick isn't going to be enough.

 

[newyorkguy]

Does Wall Street love Trump's comeback? Doubtful, especially if you believe this New York Times analysis:

Wall Street fears a Trump presidency. Stocks may lose 10 to 12 percent of their value if he wins the November election, and there may be a broader economic downturn. link

I definitely fear a recession if Trump was to somehow win, a bad one if he pursues some of the economic policies he's talked about. Markets love stability. Trump is the anti-stability candidate. The one with no track record or experience, the one it is very hard to get a sense for what he will do.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Right now they have him at an almost 30% (28.9%) chance of winning. I'm curious as to why a lot of you seem certain that Hillary is going to win. To me it seems impossible to be so confident, for either side. Of course Hillary might win. But Trump might, too. Why the certainty?

Because he hasn't made any gains in turning over blue states. If he can't turn MI, WI, PA, CO, NH - he cannot win. If you check the Times index of states, all the aggregators have her at a solid 272. And that doesn't include her taking OH or FL or NC or NV, two or more of which she's likely to take.

 

[Minoosh]

Just one more bloody week, and no doubt a November Surprise.

God I hope so. An indictment would be nice. Not federal; any state would do.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Because he hasn't made any gains in turning over blue states. If he can't turn MI, WI, PA, CO, NH - he cannot win. If you check the Times index of states, all the aggregators have her at a solid 272. And that doesn't include her taking OH or FL or NC or NV, two or more she's likely to take.

A reasonable answer. Developments this week are very unpredictable, though. The word on the street is that someone is going to release her 30,000 deleted emails. That could be a bunch of nonsense, or it could be true. And if it were true, it could help her or hurt her.

So far, the black voter turnout is low for her, according to the Huffington Post:

https://www.google.com/amp/m.huffpo...e4b0990edc33acfc/amp?client=ms-android-att-us

Apparently it's down significantly in several key states.

 

[marplots]

The real lurking problem with Hillary's emails is that when she gets one from a Nigerian prince who wants to sneak money out of the country, it's real.

 

[NoahFence]

Does Wall Street love Trump's comeback? Doubtful, especially if you believe this New York Times analysis:


I definitely fear a recession if Trump was to somehow win, a bad one if he pursues some of the economic policies he's talked about. Markets love stability. Trump is the anti-stability candidate. The one with no track record or experience, the one it is very hard to get a sense for what he will do.

If all we get from that menace is a recession, I'll be pleasantly surprised

 

[acbytesla]

A reasonable answer. Developments this week are very unpredictable, though. The word on the street is that someone is going to release her 30,000 deleted emails. That could be a bunch of nonsense, or it could be true. And if it were true, it could help her or hurt her.

So far, the black voter turnout is low for her, according to the Huffington Post:

https://www.google.com/amp/m.huffpo...e4b0990edc33acfc/amp?client=ms-android-att-us

Apparently it's down significantly in several key states.

What "word" on the street? LMAO. As if anyone knows what is going to happen tomorrow by people they don't know.

 

[Cain]

Because he hasn't made any gains in turning over blue states. If he can't turn MI, WI, PA, CO, NH - he cannot win. If you check the Times index of states, all the aggregators have her at a solid 272. And that doesn't include her taking OH or FL or NC or NV, two or more she's likely to take.

As of now FiveThirtyEight has FL and NC within one and three percentage points, respectively. Last week the differences were 20% and 30%. That's not the good kind of momentum, and it doesn't look like the damage has stopped. A betting market that I browse has Trump winning Florida. He's also well ahead in OH and IA.

You're right that he has a difficult path to 270, but scandal fueled momentum can raise votes everywhere. This isn't about, say, a ground game in Ohio versus North Carolina. Clinton's still likely to win, but there's a week to go...

 

[steve s]

Trump's math skills are as bad as his reading skills.

"When you're working for Hillary, she wants to let people just pour in. You could have 650 million people pour in and we do nothing about it," Trump said. "Think of it. That's what could happen. You triple the size of our country in a week."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...d-come-to-the-u-s-in-a-week-lets-do-the-math/

The entire population of the world could be here within a few months.

Steve S

 

[Stacko]

Trump's math skills are as bad as his reading skills.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...d-come-to-the-u-s-in-a-week-lets-do-the-math/

The entire population of the world could be here within a few months.

Steve S

The math checks out roughly. The logistics on the other hand are impossible.

 

[Tony Stark]

Trump's math skills are as bad as his reading skills.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...d-come-to-the-u-s-in-a-week-lets-do-the-math/

The entire population of the world could be here within a few months.

Steve S

He is such a moron.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Right now they have him at an almost 30% (28.9%) chance of winning. I'm curious as to why a lot of you seem certain that Hillary is going to win. To me it seems impossible to be so confident, for either side. Of course Hillary might win. But Trump might, too. Why the certainty?

*Shrugs* Really just a matter of the numbers. And I nver said or acted as if it where certain.

Even if we give Trump every swing state that's still reasonably on the fence and every state in which Clinton's lead is close enough to make an upset even reasonably possible he would still fall short of the magical 270.

Sure there's a possibility, that's why it's 30/70 and not 0/100 but it's would take something bordering on a political miracle at this point, something along the lines of Trump somehow managing to take Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and scoring a major upset in say Colorado or New Hempshire which is just simply statistically and politically highly unlikely.

I mean hell the Cubs are in the World Series anything is possible I just find it highly unlikely from a purely political perspective.

Now from a purely non-emotional, ammoral polysci perspective this is an amazingly odd election that isn't playing by traditional rules (say what you want but this election cycle is probably the best thing to happen to polysci talking heads for a long time) but I don't see anything that's suggests the polls numbers are going to be radically different enough from the final results at this point.

There are a few, not likely but not totally off the table, possibilities. None of these I consider likely (ranging from highly unlikely to functionally impossible) but possible.

- Some factor is making the poll numbers highly nonrepresentative of voters.
- There really is some huge pool of undecided voters.
- Some factor will make a large number of people vote who otherwise wouldn't.
- One of the two campaigns will drop some bombshell that actually makes a difference.
- One of the third party candidates somehow manages to win a state.

Anything beyond that and you'd almost have to invoke magic or full scale conspiracy theory or a total rewrite of politics.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Washington Post quote:

Urban areas, where 80 percent of Americans live, are grossly misrepresented in a traditional election map. In fact, only 160 of the 3,000 counties nationwide were responsible for half of the votes cast in 2012.

That's one reason I really dislike both the "Red State / Blue State" nonsense and most election maps, they are pointless to the point of being misleading.

People get votes, not acres and non-poulation adjusted maps that just show election results against the raw size of the US perpetrate this politically dangerous illusion that we have to protect a bunch of sparsely populated areas from the big urban areas to keep the election "fair."

 

[varwoche]

As of now FiveThirtyEight has FL and NC within one and three percentage points, respectively. Last week the differences were 20% and 30%. That's not the good kind of momentum, and it doesn't look like the damage has stopped. A betting market that I browse has Trump winning Florida. He's also well ahead in OH and IA.

You're right that he has a difficult path to 270, but scandal fueled momentum can raise votes everywhere. This isn't about, say, a ground game in Ohio versus North Carolina. Clinton's still likely to win, but there's a week to go...

Yup. It's the trend line that's most concerning*.



* "Concerning"? I'm positively freaked out.

 

[Noztradamus]

Man hangs black mannequins in tree next to his Trump yard sign. Says just "Halloween". This is why I don't give a **** about those emails.​

[IMGw=640]http://i1070.photobucket.com/albums/u492/rfstack/000000_88.jpg[/IMGw]​

Or: for some reason, man hangs black effigies next to his neighbour's TRump sign.

 

[Trebuchet]

Or: for some reason, man hangs black effigies next to his neighbour's TRump sign.

Damn. We JUST got this derail split off into its own thread and you start it up again.