Today in Gaza...

webfusion said:
So, using this as a baseline, from 1999 to 2006 the support for Hamas has gone from 12% to 33%.
That's a net increase in support, right?
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Over that timeline yes. However at the present time it appears that support is falling.

Not to mention they are now in control of the Legislature! And no new elections are planned.
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No elections are currently planned in the UK. Again the referendum comes in handy. Palistians are getting used to being able to vote.


So the poll question about "willingness to vote for HAMAS" is bogus.[/QUOTE]
 
"So support has fallen 13%"

No, geni. It hasn't fallen.

I edited my post #96 which shows that the support for HAMAS is up 12% to 33% over the past few years. That is the proper statistic, not the "QUICK POLL" of Bir Zeit.

As I indicated -- right now, there are no elections planned. And HAMAS is not about to back down and concede anything, especially after their Gaza security chief Jamal Abu Samhadana just was given a dirt nap by the IAF.

Screw their 'referendum' -- it has the same effect as a declaration that they feel the sun should rise in the west tomorrow.
 
Running Jerusalem would be a major headache.
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Israel is doing a good enough job, thank you. No return to the 1949 Lines is contemplated, AFAIK, and the Hadarim Document calling for that to happen is a joke.
 
webfusion said:
No, geni. It hasn't fallen.

I edited my post #96 which shows that the support for HAMAS is up 12% to 33% over the past few years. That is the proper statistic, not the "QUICK POLL" of Bir Zeit.
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Again different timelines. It is currently falling.

As I indicated -- right now, there are no elections planned.
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Right now there are no elections planned in the UK.

And HAMAS is not about to back down and concede anything,
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That is why abbas is trying to appeal over their heads.

especially after their Gaza security chief Jamal Abu Samhadana just was given a dirt nap by the IAF.
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Bad move. In the short term it might just give Hammas enough of a rallying point to get out of the current situation. Should have waited a week.

In the medium and long term it will have no effect. Small scale killing in this kind of war never does (open to question how much effect it has on coventional war just look at trafalgar). Ultimately you either have to kill them all or mass detain them boer war style. If you chose the second you have to do it about once every generation. Gets expensive. Below that level you have to start doing hearts and minds stuff at some point or be ready to fight forever.

Screw their 'referendum' -- it has the same effect as a declaration that they feel the sun should rise in the west tomorrow.
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The same could have been said about the formation of Solidarity.
 
Israel is pretty good at conventional wars but not so good with dealing with the type of issues hammas presents.
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What issues?
Keep killing these SOB's until their followers surrender and disarm.
Israeli pilots have a complete list:

Khaled Mash'al (in Damascus)
PM Haniyeh (in Gaza)

and there are a few others who would make equally fine targets:

Here is the roster of Hamas cabinet members:

*
Ismail Haniyeh: prime minister and minister of youth and sports
*
Mahmoud al-Zahar: minister of foreign affairs
*
Nasser al-Shaer: deputy prime minister and minister of education and higher education
*
Said Siyam: minister of interior and civil affairs
*
Omar Abdel Razzaq: minister of finance
*
Alaa al-Araj: minister of economy
*
Bassem Naim: minister of health
*
Fakhri Turkman: minister of social affairs
*
Tareq Abu Arafa: minister of Jerusalem affairs
*
Tannas Abu Eita: minister of tourism
*
Ahmed al-Khalidi: minister of justice
*
Ziad al-Zaza: minister of public works and housing
*
Mohammed al-Agha: minister of agriculture
*
Nayef al-Rajoub: minister of Waqf and religious affairs
*
Samir Abu Eisha: minister of planning
*
Jamal al-Khudari: minister of communications, technology and IT
*
Abdelrahman Zeidan: minister of transportation
*
Mariam Saleh: minister of women's affairs
*
Attallah Abu al-Sibbah: minister of culture
*
Yussef Ruzqa: minister of information
*
Wasfi Kabaha: minister of prisoners
*
Issa al-Jaabari: minister of local government
*
Mohammed al-Barghouthi: minister of labor
*
Atef Udwan: minister of state
*
Mohammed Awad: cabinet secretary


And your kids?
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Already gearing up for it. My son was just drafted to the IDF.
Not a problem.
 
webfusion said:
No, geni. It hasn't fallen.

I edited my post #96 which shows that the support for HAMAS is up 12% to 33% over the past few years. That is the proper statistic, not the "QUICK POLL" of Bir Zeit.
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I'm with Geni on this one. If his polls are correct, the support for Hamas has dropped dramatically since the election. I'm a little skeptical as Hamas's results in the exection were so far above what the polls were then, but overall this is a good sign and shouldn't be dismissed.

geni said:
Isreal is pretty good at conventional wars but not so good with dealing with the type of issues hammas presents.
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Except that they are. They've had a lot of practice.
 
webfusion said:
What issues?
Keep killing these SOB's until their followers surrender and disarm.
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History of the last 50 years suggests that doesn't work. How many Israelies would have to be killed for it to work (FWIW the figure I come up with is around 3.5 million)?



Already gearing up for it. My son was just drafted to the IDF.
Not a problem.
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And your other 3-4 kids? Palistinians have big families. 2.44 is a pretty good fertility rate for a western style civilisation. I've seen various figures for the Palistinian but somewhat greater than 3 seems to be the most popular. While in the short term isreal can deal with that one through imigration it causes problems in the long run.
 
Mycroft said:
Except that they are. They've had a lot of practice.
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Yes but they lost southen lebanon. Isael has shown that it is generaly not prepared to use the only tactics that have been shown to work.
 
Yes, but Israel lost southen lebanon.
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Not accurate.

Israel made a strategic decision to withdraw to the Sykes-Picot Lines (Blue Lines), and obtained UN agreements to keep UNIFIL in place to secure those boundries as an internationally-recognized "border", despite no peace treaty being entered into.

I don't know if you folllow the news closely, but UN Secretary Annan made public his stance regarding the Sheeba Farm Salient:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/725102.html
Beirut should honor Israeli presence in the disputed area called the Shebaa Farms as long as a border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Syria has not been signed.
The letter was sent on Tuesday and was published by the Lebanese press on Friday.

Israel did not 'lose' southern lebanon -- the mission there to prevent terrorism and eliminate the deadly threat posed by Palestinians was accomplished. The vaccuum was filled with the Iranian-backed proxy troops of Hezbollah, which was seen as an internal Lebanese matter (along with Syria, which was now really in charge).

By this same logic of yours, geni, Israel 'lost' gaza?
 
Every account I've read was that Israel was convinced by Sharon and other like minded thinkers it would be strategically worthwhile to move into Southern Lebanon. After a few years, it just didn't seem worth it any more, apparently.
 
Strategies change, tactics change, public opinion changes, military generals come and go, politicians coma and go (pun intended) -----

Geni's definition of "Israel lost lebanon" does not seem accurate.
I know that the Palestinians may think of it that way, but from a purely military viewpoint, Israel lost nothing. The area along the Blue Line border is secure, and Israeli Defense Forces have full capability there to prevent infiltrations and terrorism against Israeli territory.

Same regarding Gaza (Tan Line)

The same is being prepared (more or less) along the Green Line.

Israel is a garrison State. It will obviously remain that way for the next several generations (or as geni says: "ready to fight forever")

That's just the way it is. We live with it.
 
webfusion said:
Not accurate.

Israel made a strategic decision to withdraw to the Sykes-Picot Lines (Blue Lines), and obtained UN agreements to keep UNIFIL in place to secure those boundries as an internationally-recognized "border", despite no peace treaty being entered into.
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The constant loses and the cost of the SLA had nothing to do with this of course.


By this same logic of yours, geni, Israel 'lost' gaza?
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In pure miltiry terms (which is what you were originaly talking about with your cries of "Keep killing these SOB's until their followers surrender and disarm") you lost the settelments.
 
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