The VFF Test is On!

Akhenaten said:
What are the odds against a success here if the applicant relies on chance alone?
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We calculated the odds to be 1:1728. This is lower than we would normally prefer, but given the logistical issues this demonstration is already going to take longer than the Connie Sonne TAM7 preliminary. We needed to find some way to keep decent odds without it becoming a 6+ hour ordeal that would be very difficult to find volunteers to participate in as test subjects. This was the best compromise.

If Anita happens to be successful in the Preliminary then the Final Test will be set up to our normal 1:1,000,000 odds and we will find some way to manage the time requirements necessary to do it.

Talk to you later.

-Derek
 
Thanks for posting up the protocol, derekcbart.
Looking forward to seeing this.
The IIG's hard work is deeply appreciated, indeed.
 
derekcbart said:
We calculated the odds to be 1:1728. This is lower than we would normally prefer, but given the logistical issues this demonstration is already going to take longer than the Connie Sonne TAM7 preliminary. We needed to find some way to keep decent odds without it becoming a 6+ hour ordeal that would be very difficult to find volunteers to participate in as test subjects. This was the best compromise.

If Anita happens to be successful in the Preliminary then the Final Test will be set up to our normal 1:1,000,000 odds and we will find some way to manage the time requirements necessary to do it.

Talk to you later.

-Derek
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I understand the odds/logistics trade-off completely, Derek, and thanks. It was discussed at length in another thread here prior to the announcement of the IIG Preliminary.

Have a very good day. I believe it may get busy.


:)
 
Regarding the odds... well, when I was a kid, I rolled 3 sixes a lot when making my characters. Of course, I wasn't being entirely truthful about how many times I rolled... *wink*

In all seriousness, I hope this goes well for everyone involved.

Squid
 
Squid its 1:6 to guess the person but she has to identify left or right kidney missing so 1:12 for each trial.

Doing this 3 times is 12*12*12 1:1728

*NB my stats knowledge is pretty bad all I have learnt is from Jref forums :)
 
UncaYimmy and his pals over at www.stopvisionfromfeeling.com are setting up their own separate chatroom at his website. I hope they somehow preserve that chat log so those of us who can't be there live can still read it. I hope IIG is also preserving their chat log. It'll probably be hard to keep track of them both at the same time.

Ward
 
wardenclyffe said:
UncaYimmy and his pals over at www.stopvisionfromfeeling.com are setting up their own separate chatroom at his website. I hope they somehow preserve that chat log so those of us who can't be there live can still read it. I hope IIG is also preserving their chat log. It'll probably be hard to keep track of them both at the same time.

Ward
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There are a number of scribes assigned to this task. Transcripts will duly appear in this forum, as if in a vision.

- Eye, Fan Bearer on the Right of Pharaoh
 
I can foresee where this is going.

With this many trials/subjects and given the way the test is set up, a chance of failure is almost guaranteed (since Anita doesn't really have any powers, and would have to rely on cold reading techniques to get a hit).

However, if she happens to get a hit on just one of the groups she will claim that something blocked her powers from working the rest of the time. Guaranteed.

Nonetheless, kudos to IIG for setting this up and and formulating what - given the circumstances - is a pretty strong protocol.
 
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I sometimes think that the whole kidney test is something of a smokescreen.

I don't believe Vision from Feeling ever really thought that she could pass this test, and is simply using it to demonstrate her apparent willingness to submit her claims to public scrutiny, just like the True Sceptic that she wishes to portray.

All of her other claims will remain unchanged, and she can afford to write the kidney detection nonsense off as collateral damage.

Prolly.
 
Akhenaten said:
I sometimes think that the whole kidney test is something of a smokescreen.

I don't believe Vision from Feeling ever really thought that she could pass this test, and is simply using it to demonstrate her apparent willingness to submit her claims to public scrutiny, just like the True Sceptic that she wishes to portray.

All of her other claims will remain unchanged, and she can afford to write the kidney detection nonsense off as collateral damage.

Prolly.
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I predict:

That after Anita fails the IIG demonstration, in any future discussions, and on her website, she will insist that the demonstration 'falsified' her paranormal claim, so she can now attribute her ability to see Dr. Carlson's missing kidney to her sooper dooper, one of a kind brand of synesthesia. She'll repeat that a trillion times, while carefully avoiding any discrepancies or debunkings. She's already begun setting that up with her 'light pixels' story.

True to form, her failure will become a non failure.
 
Oh yeah. That too.

:)


As promised, higlights from the Testonstration™ downlink chatroom:


Akhenaten:
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What does this do?
Dibs on Green writing


catbasket:
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Pink?
Better?​


Are we on the edge of our seats yet?
 
Pharaoh may find the excitement of mere mortals amusing, who can gainsay him?
Still, even a loyal slave takes note Pharaoh was the first to call dibs on chat colours. :)
 
VisionFromWheeling says:

1 left

5 left

3 left
 
I've just read through the preliminary protocol. I think maybe I need to read it again because I don't get how the 6 subjects are chosen. (Is there a larger pool of people with and without missing kidneys to randomly choose from?)

Or does everyone in the room except Anita know which person has which kidney(s)?

I also don't see anything in the protocol that required keeping it secret before now.

(Other than the fact that many of us would criticize it. Since there are still huge gaps for information leakage, a success would be meaningless. As I've said before, a failure would be similarly meaningless. In the case of a failure, it's entirely up to VFF if she chooses to admit it's a failure or not. A test/demonstration that is inconclusive is not better than none at all, IMO.)

I predict she will fail, though, simply because I don't think she even uses unconscious cold reading techniques or any such thing to delude herself into thinking she has this power. I don't think she's a conscious fraud. (Though the protocol shouldn't depend on that.)

ETA: "Each Subject may wear a hood or wide-brimmed hat designed to prevent any possible eye contact between the Subject and the Applicant and to prevent the Applicant from seeing the faces of the Subjects." So it's up to the subject to choose whether or not to wear something to prevent eye contact or to prevent Anita from seeing their faces? So. . .what if all the people who are missing a kidney were more likely to wear such things than those who aren't? Wouldn't that be a clue that could skew the odds in her favor a bit?

ETA: "No communication of any kind is allowed before or during the test between the Applicant and any Subject(s). This would include any general vocalizing by the Applicant that might cause a Subject to react."
But she can talk as long as she (or someone) thinks it won't cause a subject to react?
 
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And there's the CYA catch-all (since the set up makes information leakage possible):

The IIG reserves the right to make adjustments in the Protocol after each trial in response to any logistic or procedural problem that may be causing sensory leakage or other breach of basic scientific protocol. Should this occur the Applicant will be credited back any loss of time to her break or trial time limit.

If there is any conscious attempt by the Applicant to cheat or thwart, circumvent or deliberately confuse any aspect of the protocol or final verification process the entire test will be suspended and possibly cancelled altogether.
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Again, this tells me that the results are inconclusive. Either or both sides may choose to consider the results conclusive, but they certainly don't have to.

Who decides whether there is a procedural problem during the test that has to be addressed? Can it be solved by putting the subjects behind a sheet (a protocol element that Anita has specifically rejected)? Who decides whether she made a conscious attempt to cheat?

Again, this is not bad if it were just a test the claimant was doing on her own to verify her own suspected powers to herself. But it's not that, is it?

And what if she does pass? There is nothing agreed upon for a final protocol (other than the fact that this one isn't it).
 
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