The Trump/Putin summit predictions thread

[Sabrina]

James Gunn offered up a pretty good summation of the summit with this meme:

 

[webfusion]

...Putin added, “But no, it would never occur to anyone that he would think of running for president. He never mentioned his political ambitions.”

Hold on there just a New York minute ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign,_2000

snippet -- "He named media proprietor Oprah Winfrey as his ideal running mate and said he would instantly marry his girlfriend, Melania Knauss, to make her First Lady."

Also, 2012.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/may/16/donald-trump-us-presidential-race

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Trump supporters are still 100% behind him. Because they voted for him. They can’t admit that their abortion/tax/immigrant/etc stance put a dangerous man in the White House.

Not true. He is losing support. For example:

Or:

I can find more, if you're interested. And that's just the general public. Some of those who hold sway over them have also been critical. For example, Abby Huntsman is the daughter of the US ambassador to Russia and is a Fox News host:

No negotiation is worth throwing your own people and country under the bus.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1018893795696545792?s=09

Neil Cavuto of Fox Business calls Trump's press conference "disgusting", "That sets us back a lot."

Or, how about the fact that the Southeast Ohio Republican Party Chairman has resigned over the press conference?

There's also people who are finding their support wavering, even as they desperately try to cling on to it

Going to try and make a more articulate version of what I said on one of the previous posts.

First of all, this was a major gaffe (blunder, intentional or otherwise) on Trump's part, and in my opinion with out a doubt his biggest one. While it is survivable, he will need to act quickly and decisively to repair the damage.

Why do I care now? Formal indictments of Russian officals were made, with the Dutch backing the claims. This isn't Tony Blair pushing us off the cliff with Cheney, this is credible, double-verified intelligence.

I previously compared the scale of the situation to somewhere between the Campaign Finance Scandal of '96, in which the Chinese illegally threw money at the Democratic party, and Watergate. I'd say it's worse than the former because of the involvement of some of Trump's ex-advisors, but Trump himself is not to our knowledge colluding ala Watergate.

Now though, it actually is a possibility the later could be closer to the truth. There are several reasons why Trump could have said what he said. In order of severity:

1. Trump is too proud or stubborn to admit something happened.

2. Trump likes Putin too much.

3.Kushner is in trouble.

4.Trump himself is in trouble.

1. Some combination of the above.

Now 1&2 are survivable if he makes a turnaround. 3 would be tricky, Kushner is more or less his golden boy. 4/5 is obviously impeachment material right there.

So what would alleviate some of my fears? Extradition of the twelve. We did it in '96, and we should do it now. No Russian supervision, if they were innocent they should just go with it, but otherwise then it's time to pay the bills.

This should be as soon as possible.

Additionally I would like to see a retraction even more apparent than the one after his gaffe when he said to 'grab the guns without due process'. I know his machismo and experience with the press makes him unwilling to actually apologize, but this would be the case where actually apologizing to our intelligence officers would be in order.

How does this affect my support right now? I honestly don't know, I got really blindsided by this (haha should have seen it coming from a mile away given what y'all been saying). I'm definitely very unhappy with what happened. If something isn't done soon, then honestly it's all up in the air.

At least I had an amazing date with my gf today.

Also, thanks to all the people who replied before. You were very kind and supportive.

 

[eeyore1954]

Trump supporters are still 100% behind him. Because they voted for him. They can’t admit that their abortion/tax/immigrant/etc stance put a dangerous man in the White House.

I am not 100% behind him but I don't believe President Trump is anymore dangerous than a President Clinton would have been. And I don't believe either of them are particularly dangerous.

President Trump says things I think are stupid from time to time but I agree with most of his actual policies.

 

[kookbreaker]

Not true. He is losing support. For example:
url]

Not sure if I’m buying that. I’d need to see more examples or something more tangible, like a severe drop in the subscription level of r/TheDonald or some complete turnaround by Donald fans, not just the “oopsie” reactions that I’ve seen thus far.

 

[timhau]

He has actual policies?

 

[The Don]

He has actual policies?

Several, on any one subject

 

[JoeMorgue]

He has actual policies?

Several, on any one subject

One of the only good moments in the X-Files reboot was the revelation that the shadowy forces that Mulder is opposing have changed their tactics, no longer are they trying to silence the truth and keep secrets. It's the 2010s that's stupid it's not going to work. The truth, to borrow a phrase, is out there and that's not a genie they can either keep in or put back in the bottle.

In a post truth world traditional lying is pointless. It's a waste of time and energy. Just say everything with no consistency or logic or purpose and pick and choose what the truth is at any given time based on what you need it to be.

 

[3point14]

President Trump says things I think are stupid from time to time but I agree with most of his actual policies.

Which ones?

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Not sure if I’m buying that. I’d need to see more examples or something more tangible, like a severe drop in the subscription level of r/TheDonald or some complete turnaround by Donald fans, not just the “oopsie” reactions that I’ve seen thus far.

Well, firstly bear in mind that I'm not arguing that his support has waned significantly. I was arguing against the notion that all Trump supporters are still 100% behind him because they can't face the thought that they voted incorrectly.

Secondly, I'm not sure that the number of people who have subscribed to The_Donald is a good metric, as you can't say how many are subscribed because they support Trump and how many are subscribed because they want to keep up with whatever the latest ******* crazy nonsense is, or whatever other reason there might be.

 

[LSSBB]

I am not 100% behind him but I don't believe President Trump is anymore dangerous than a President Clinton would have been. And I don't believe either of them are particularly dangerous.

President Trump says things I think are stupid from time to time but I agree with most of his actual policies.

Do you agree with his policy of throwing America under the bus? Is capitulation something you're jiggy with?

 

[kookbreaker]

Well, firstly bear in mind that I'm not arguing that his support has waned significantly. I was arguing against the notion that all Trump supporters are still 100% behind him because they can't face the thought that they voted incorrectly.

Secondly, I'm not sure that the number of people who have subscribed to The_Donald is a good metric, as you can't say how many are subscribed because they support Trump and how many are subscribed because they want to keep up with whatever the latest ******* crazy nonsense is, or whatever other reason there might be.

Fair enough.

I note that the Rasmussen polls, which tilt heavily conservative and usually have Donald at 48-49% approval (occasionally hitting 50% whereupon Trump declares himself the most popular President evar) has dropped to 45% even before the Putin conference.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Well, firstly bear in mind that I'm not arguing that his support has waned significantly. I was arguing against the notion that all Trump supporters are still 100% behind him because they can't face the thought that they voted incorrectly.

Mainly because nobody is going to let them forget it.

Look at it this way if (g) you voted for Trump in 16... what's the point of changing your mind if the sin of voting for Trump is going to held over you for ever?

No elected official has 100% of their voting base's support about everything. That's not reality works. People vote for the lesser of two evils, with reservations, for stupid and valid reasons all the time. This ain't new.

As long as liberals see "Trump Voters" as a demographic to be punished and humbled they aren't giving them a reason to switch sides.

 

[Hungry81]

I am not 100% behind him but I don't believe President Trump is anymore dangerous than a President Clinton would have been. And I don't believe either of them are particularly dangerous.

President Trump says things I think are stupid from time to time but I agree with most of his actual policies.

You think Clinton would have let Putin put her on a leash and take her for a walk, the way he did with puppy boy Trump?

I want to put $50 down that his Russian code name is Agent Orange.

 

[ponderingturtle]

What has Putin got on Trump? Pee-tape? So what if he has a pee-tape, that's nothing. What he DOES have is loan markers to Trump for just about all the businesses Trump has bungled since the US banks turned their collective backs on him...in the 90's? It gave the Russian mafia a gateway to launder their money into the USA using Trump's hotels and golf courses - all nice and expensive property worth hundreds of millions. Trump,the narcissist, got the rake-off for being the conduit, although he thought they were just being kind to him when the US banks were not. That he went bankrupt a few times didn't worry his Russian handlers at all. As long as he picked up and moved on, they had their pipeline.

And guess which former KGB chief and now high-flying politician has been famously working at the top of the Russian mafias for decades...

Putin has Trump's balls in a jar in his desk. And he likes to give them a squeeze every now and then to remind the owner who is boss.

You think the few hundred million the maffia is laudering is the big thing for Trump? Try the billions that Putin and his inner circle are laundering. Hell Putin's daughter an academic and a dancer is unlike trump a real billionaire.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/russia-capitalism-daughters/

Or Putin's modest retirement home

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-17730959

 

[Sabrina]

Fair enough.

I note that the Rasmussen polls, which tilt heavily conservative and usually have Donald at 48-49% approval (occasionally hitting 50% whereupon Trump declares himself the most popular President evar) has dropped to 45% even before the Putin conference.

Fivethirtyeight's aggregate puts Trump at a current approval rating of 42.2% and a 52.8% disapproval rating. Granted, that is the aggregate of the polls, but I've noticed it slowly dropping as more and more comes out. Now, he's nowhere near the worst approval rating offered in the comparison charts (which would be George H.W. Bush having a whopping 27.6% approval rating, albeit much later in his time in office than Trump currently has under his belt), but he's definitely not doing well.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Fivethirtyeight's aggregate puts Trump at a current approval rating of 42.2% and a 52.8% disapproval rating. Granted, that is the aggregate of the polls, but I've noticed it slowly dropping as more and more comes out. Now, he's nowhere near the worst approval rating offered in the comparison charts (which would be George H.W. Bush having a whopping 27.6% approval rating, albeit much later in his time in office than Trump currently has under his belt), but he's definitely not doing well.

I'm not sure in the long term how much stock can really be put in that.

Truman had 22% at one point. Nixon had 24. Carter had 28. Bush had 27.

Truman, Nixon, Carter and Bush are... a pretty widely varied group of Presidents that history remembers as good (Truman), bad (Nixon), sorta ineffective (Carter) and... Bush.

I'm not sure if an approval rating now is a good indicator of anything.

 

[timhau]

Fivethirtyeight's aggregate puts Trump at a current approval rating of 42.2% and a 52.8% disapproval rating. Granted, that is the aggregate of the polls, but I've noticed it slowly dropping as more and more comes out.

His approval rating has been in the 41 - 42 neighborhood for quite a while. It'll take a week or two before we see what effect, if any, kissing Putin's ass on live TV has on it.

 

[Sabrina]

I'm not sure in the long term how much stock can really be put in that.

Truman had 22% at one point. Nixon had 24. Carter had 28. Bush had 27.

Truman, Nixon, Carter and Bush are... a pretty widely varied group of Presidents that history remembers as good (Truman), bad (Nixon), sorta ineffective (Carter) and... Bush.

I'm not sure if an approval rating now is a good indicator of anything.

Not really sure of what it's good for myself, except a metric of how well the President is perceived to be doing, so if it drops over the next several weeks, I guess we'll see what the country actually thinks of Trump's actions in Russia.

 

[JoeMorgue]

“Now, here are some results from our phone-in poll. Ninety-five percent of the people believe Homer Simpson is guilty. Now, of course, this is just a television poll, which is not legally binding, unless Proposition 304 passes, and we all pray it will.” – Kent Brockman