Cont: The Trump Presidency, Part II

[The Don]

They have at least two other options: vote third party or don't vote at all. There will be some of each among GOP voters, more than usual, I suspect. Will it be enough? We'll see, but I hope so.

I hope so too but I think it would be foolish of the Democratic Party to rely upon it for electoral success. Instead they need to find a candidate who is positively enticing, a Bill Clinton or an Obama. Perhaps someone who has learned from Trump to "own" past indiscretions rather than continually apologise for them and allow the media to bully them.

 

[Belz...]

The "oh, Trump made everyone crazy, but it's just a dumb tweet" defenses have begun.

Few people make nothing but dumb tweets, however.

 

[Firestone]

I hope so too but I think it would be foolish of the Democratic Party to rely upon it for electoral success. Instead they need to find a candidate who is positively enticing, a Bill Clinton or an Obama. Perhaps someone who has learned from Trump to "own" past indiscretions rather than continually apologise for them and allow the media to bully them.

(bolding mine)

That is a very good point, imo.
Macron did just that. "J'assume", he repeatedly said when confronted about his supposedly unpopular policies. He owned his pro-Europe stand, his labor reform program, etc
Compare that to Hillary Clinton, who, for example, changed her position on trade under pressure from Sanders. That made her look weak and unprincipled.

 

[The Don]

Few people make nothing but dumb tweets, however.

That's "modern presidential" for you

 

[Stacko]

Poll numbers right now are pretty meaningless. The next election is still over 3 years away.

But almost always a sitting president will be his party's nominee in the next election. Usually without a serious challenger either (since Carter).

I do suspect that Trump will have a serious challenger, but the incumbent president still has the advantage unless his approval ratings really get bad. I think it will depend on whether the economy gets worse between now and then, or some sort of major scandal (bigger than the current ones).

Kasich certainly appears to be positioning himself to run again in 2020. It also wouldn't surprise me to see the McMullin crowd push Ben Sasse to run.

 

[Belz...]

That's "modern presidential" for you

Alternative President.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Trump might think that his "sticking it to the media" gains him something, but in fact the news-shows and comedy programs are playing him the same way he played them during the primaries and elections;
after all, Trump isn't running for anything in the next for 3 years, but TV hosts run for ratings constantly. The more he engages with them, the more he assures that they will get viewers.
Luckily for them, Trump doesn't understand that his job as president isn't to get air-time: he truly is Zaphod Beeblebrox with his sense of style and humor amputated.

 

[The Don]

Trump might think that his "sticking it to the media" gains him something, but in fact the news-shows and comedy programs are playing him the same way he played them during the primaries and elections;
after all, Trump isn't running for anything in the next for 3 years, but TV hosts run for ratings constantly. The more he engages with them, the more he assures that they will get viewers.
Luckily for them, Trump doesn't understand that his job as president isn't to get air-time: he truly is Zaphod Beeblebrox with his sense of style and humor amputated.

All of this is true but his approval rating among Republicans is at 85% according to Gallup, and has been rising the last few weeks. President Trump seems to be doing the right thing - at least as far as GOP supporters are concerned. As I have mentioned elsewhere, I've had a bit of an epiphany and come to the conclusion that the issue isn't President Trump, or the GOP's unwillingness to take him to task but rather the fact that for a significant proportion of Americans, he is exactly the sort of President they want and his policies are exactly what they want.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Remember when Trump voters said that Trump would act more maturely once in office?

At least he brings the dignity of not being black, so many people felt horribly ashamed of having a black man as their leader, he makes them feel proud.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

All of this is true but his approval rating among Republicans is at 85% according to Gallup, and has been rising the last few weeks. President Trump seems to be doing the right thing - at least as far as GOP supporters are concerned. As I have mentioned elsewhere, I've had a bit of an epiphany and come to the conclusion that the issue isn't President Trump, or the GOP's unwillingness to take him to task but rather the fact that for a significant proportion of Americans, he is exactly the sort of President they want and his policies are exactly what they want.

The GOP pretended for 7 years that all the voters want is stopping Obama. Now that they are in charge, they can't get anything done.
Yes, Trump got elected as a giant middle finger to educated, progressive America, but also as someone "who can get things done": being nothing but a troll won't work forever.
Or to put it another way: from 85% approval there is only one way to go: down. This support has a lot of expectations priced in, expectations that can't be met since not even the core GOP can decide what it wants: as long as Trump does nothing, he can't do anything wrong. But as soon as anything serious gets passed, half of the Republicans base will get pissed off.

 

[The Don]

But as soon as anything serious gets passed, half of the Republicans base will get pissed off.

I'm not so sure of that.

For example, the current healthcare proposals will immediately deliver tax cuts and lower premiums (albeit for effectively useless insurance) which will be massively appealing.

The penalties, when the deficit once again spirals out of control, when people lose coverage, premiums for some groups start soaring or when people find that their cheap insurance delivers nothing in terms of benefits come much later, after the crucial elections.

 

[Stacko]

I'm not so sure of that.

For example, the current healthcare proposals will immediately deliver tax cuts and lower premiums (albeit for effectively useless insurance) which will be massively appealing.

The penalties, when the deficit once again spirals out of control, when people lose coverage, premiums for some groups start soaring or when people find that their cheap insurance delivers nothing in terms of benefits come much later, after the crucial elections.

Eventually. They don't start coming down until after 2020 until then they're increasing over what the ACA offered for better coverage. Aside from the under 25 making over $75,000 demographic, they make out like bandits immediately.

 

[Belz...]

All of this is true but his approval rating among Republicans is at 85% according to Gallup

Wow, that is a lot of stupid people.

Voting for him, I may understand. Aside from spite or ignorance there may be legitimate reasons for doing that. But continuing to support him after the -- I dare say, objectively -- terrible presidency he's had so far can't be called anything else but idiotic.

 

[ponderingturtle]

Wow, that is a lot of stupid people.

Voting for him, I may understand. Aside from spite or ignorance there may be legitimate reasons for doing that. But continuing to support him after the -- I dare say, objectively -- terrible presidency he's had so far can't be called anything else but idiotic.

You just have to find the right set of facts. I mean with out him how are we supposed to get a judiciary that knows that this is a christian nation? He nominated the only christian on the supreme court at this time after all. The rest are all papists and jews.

 

[Stacko]

Wow, that is a lot of stupid people.

Voting for him, I may understand. Aside from spite or ignorance there may be legitimate reasons for doing that. But continuing to support him after the -- I dare say, objectively -- terrible presidency he's had so far can't be called anything else but idiotic.

A significant number of Trump voters, ~40%, get their news exclusively from Fox News. If that was your only source of news, you'd have a warped view of reality too.

 

[The Don]

Wow, that is a lot of stupid people.

Voting for him, I may understand. Aside from spite or ignorance there may be legitimate reasons for doing that. But continuing to support him after the -- I dare say, objectively -- terrible presidency he's had so far can't be called anything else but idiotic.

That may be your opinion (and one that I share) but that fails to take into account the completely different ways other people judge their political leaders.

Some people will approve of Trump continuing to rail against the fake media, liberals, elitists and the like. Even if he gets nothing done they'll approve of him for at least speaking for them.

Others are so invested in having a right-wing Christian SCOTUS that even if Trump screws up every other single thing, from their perspective he is a huge success because he got Gorsuch onto the Supreme Court.

Some simply think he's a "genuine kind of guy" (IMO similar to those who found Dubya "folksy") and so they'll still approve of him.

 

[McHrozni]

Yes there was a swing towards the Democratic Party, but all four seats were retained by the GOP.

The swings were enough to make four safe Republican seats, held with 20-25% margins, competitive with margins of under 5%, in just six months of Trump. This isn't a minor swing, a swing like that in a presidential election makes Texas go to a Democrat with votes to spare and make Democrats competitive in places like Alabama and Kansas.

Granted, these were just special elections where no doubt anyone not a fan of Trump wanted to make their voice heard, more so than Trump voters, so we shouldn't expect a Democrat clean sweep in 2020. Neither should we think Trump is unassailable in that election.

My message to the Democratic Party would be that you cannot rely on "not Trump" to get you back in the game, you need a clear, enticing message well communicated.

Sure, this one is a no-starter. Come 2020 Nottrump could be enough to win anything, but Democrats shouldn't be complacent about it and field the best candidate they can. Had they done so in 2016 we wouldn't be living this nightmare right now.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

All of this is true but his approval rating among Republicans is at 85% according to Gallup, and has been rising the last few weeks. President Trump seems to be doing the right thing - at least as far as GOP supporters are concerned. As I have mentioned elsewhere, I've had a bit of an epiphany and come to the conclusion that the issue isn't President Trump, or the GOP's unwillingness to take him to task but rather the fact that for a significant proportion of Americans, he is exactly the sort of President they want and his policies are exactly what they want.

Yup.

He acts in a way 40% of the electorate or so wants the president to behave. Short of a major disaster he makes even worse with his ineptitude, they won't abandon him. Trump is a symptom of the problem, not the problem itself.

McHrozni

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

As I have mentioned elsewhere, I've had a bit of an epiphany and come to the conclusion that the issue isn't President Trump, or the GOP's unwillingness to take him to task but rather the fact that for a significant proportion of Americans, he is exactly the sort of President they want and his policies are exactly what they want.

Or at least his policies are exactly what they THINK they want.

IMHO, as long as Trump maintains a high approval rating from GOP members, no GOP senators or congresspeople will do more than make an occasional weak comment about his needing to act more presidential.

 

[McHrozni]

The GOP pretended for 7 years that all the voters want is stopping Obama. Now that they are in charge, they can't get anything done.
Yes, Trump got elected as a giant middle finger to educated, progressive America, but also as someone "who can get things done": being nothing but a troll won't work forever.
Or to put it another way: from 85% approval there is only one way to go: down. This support has a lot of expectations priced in, expectations that can't be met since not even the core GOP can decide what it wants: as long as Trump does nothing, he can't do anything wrong. But as soon as anything serious gets passed, half of the Republicans base will get pissed off.

Hopefully you're correct and we'll start seeing the Lame Duck Trump this time next year at latest.

That said, I have some experience with people who support him and people like him and it doesn't work that way. Supporting politicians like Trump was not a rational decision in the first place and cognitive dissonance makes them unwilling to drop support regardless of what he does or fails at. When he fails they'll double down on Democrat obstructionism or whatever other excuse Trump will throw their way and support him even more. It's as fascinating as it is dangerous.

I hope most of GOP base isn't like that and his hard floor is substantially lower than 40% he's been at for the past two months, but I wouldn't hold my breath. He's already done about six major missteps that should disqualify him for presidency and they still support him. Every time they double down on him like that makes it harder for them to abandon Trump at the polls or wherever. The upside is he won't rise from the floor either I guess, but 40% is enough to avoid impeachment, so he'll be around until 2021 at least.

McHrozni