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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

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lobosrul5 said:
From my (almost certainly oversimplified) understanding is, the problem with the Russian economy is underdevelopment in manufacturing and research. Their oligarchs would rather just horde money from selling raw materials rather than that money going to investing in the countries future.
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As seen by the complete failure of window construction in Russian hospitals that keep failing whenever a critic of the regime gets near them.
 
lobosrul5 said:
From my (almost certainly oversimplified) understanding is, the problem with the Russian economy is underdevelopment in manufacturing and research. Their oligarchs would rather just horde money from selling raw materials rather than that money going to investing in the countries future.
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If that's true, then the profits from Russian oil sales won't really affect their ability to manufacture weapons the way wobs imagines, since money to pay the factories isn't the bottleneck. Rather, it's the number and quality of the factories themselves.

The actual obstacle on the road to peace would be the oligarch's growing hoards. As long as their profits aren't being painfully curtailed, they'll be willing to let the factories keep up their efforts.

But those factory efforts themselves may not be up to the task of keeping the war going much longer.
 
A prediction: As Vlad the Poisoner's war gets worse, his race scientists will discover that Ukrainians aren't white and delightsome at all, but rather are descendants of the Crim Tatars, Asiatic Turcic barbarians, undeserving of the splendid name of Slobs! I mean Slavs! Goddammit, arrest that traitor wrangling the prompt cards! Somebody open a window!

I don't care if we're in the basement! There's a window somewhere! I'm surrounded by fools, cowards, and worse!

Send for Doktor Morell. I need an injection.
 
lobosrul5 said:
From my (almost certainly oversimplified) understanding is, the problem with the Russian economy is underdevelopment in manufacturing and research. Their oligarchs would rather just horde money from selling raw materials rather than that money going to investing in the countries future.
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That dynamic isn't simply the result of greedy oligarchs, though. It's a dynamic referred to as "Dutch disease" where a natural resource boom almost guarantees a manufacturing contraction. Hard to avoid even without greed and corruption.

 
theprestige said:
If that's true, then the profits from Russian oil sales won't really affect their ability to manufacture weapons the way wobs imagines, since money to pay the factories isn't the bottleneck. Rather, it's the number and quality of the factories themselves.

The actual obstacle on the road to peace would be the oligarch's growing hoards. As long as their profits aren't being painfully curtailed, they'll be willing to let the factories keep up their efforts.

But those factory efforts themselves may not be up to the task of keeping the war going much longer.
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Certainly they have some military manufacturing capability. But they rely on outside sources for the higher tech components. I'm sure the same is for consumer goods. They, of course, have one advanced trading partner left that can supply at least some of those goods: PRC. But, I doubt the PRC is going to supply Russia for free. And, if the figures in Ziggurat's linked video are to believed, their war chest is dwindling.
 
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Ziggurat said:
That dynamic isn't simply the result of greedy oligarchs, though. It's a dynamic referred to as "Dutch disease" where a natural resource boom almost guarantees a manufacturing contraction. Hard to avoid even without greed and corruption.

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in this case, Dutch disease is not a side-effect, it's the whole point of the economic system of Kleptocracy.
 
Frankly if a Russian oligarch actually fell out a window I would expect them to just make up some other story given what a cliche that has become, unless Putin really is so far gone that he doesn't care that everyone will assume this was an assassination.
 
Garrison said:
Frankly if a Russian oligarch actually fell out a window I would expect them to just make up some other story given what a cliche that has become, unless Putin really is so far gone that he doesn't care that everyone will assume this was an assassination.
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It's useful for people to think Putin can and will assassinate oligarchs. Pour encourager les autres, as they say..
 
Garrison said:
Frankly if a Russian oligarch actually fell out a window I would expect them to just make up some other story given what a cliche that has become, unless Putin really is so far gone that he doesn't care that everyone will assume this was an assassination.
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Putin's got his own windows to worry about.
 
Garrison said:
Frankly if a Russian oligarch actually fell out a window I would expect them to just make up some other story given what a cliche that has become, unless Putin really is so far gone that he doesn't care that everyone will assume this was an assassination.
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He was just suffering from some of the unfortunate side effects of gravity.
 
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