The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Childlike Empress]

Your own link says these children are conscripts - is that correct or not?

Dude. Rest for a second. You relayed obviously false propaganda here and I pointed it out. If you didn't intend to do so a "thank you Empress for pointing it out, I won't rely on "EuromaidanPress" or "Ukrainska Pravda" etc again" would be warranted instead of weasling out. This picture has nothing to do with the currrent conflict, no matter if the boys are conscripts or not. You have been duped.

 

[Manger Douse]

Dude. Rest for a second. You relayed obviously false propaganda here and I pointed it out. If you didn't intend to do so a "thank you Empress for pointing it out, I won't rely on "EuromaidanPress" or "Ukrainska Pravda" etc again" would be warranted instead of weasling out. This picture has nothing to do with the currrent conflict, no matter if the boys are conscripts or not. You have been duped.

Are those children in the photo Russian conscripts or not?

 

[Manger Douse]

They look like 18 year olds to me. Or at least the way I look in photos from when I was 18. And the way I remember a lot of my basic training cohort looked, after we arrived at reception and before we got our uniforms and haircuts.

Is it a problem if I don't think this photo is anything to be outraged over, regardless of its provenance?

Four eyes on the right doesn't look old enough to drive

 

[theprestige]

Four eyes on the right doesn't look old enough to drive

That's just rude. Hating on Russian (child) conscripts doesn't seem very productive.

 

[Manger Douse]

That's just rude. Hating on Russian (child) conscripts doesn't seem very productive.

Banter - I'm also 4-eyed and I'm sure a 4 year veteran of Russian conscription has a lot more to worry about.

I wonder if this is an American/British thing - just compare our Dennis the Meance to yours

 

[Pixel42]

You relayed obviously false propaganda here and I pointed it out. If you didn't intend to do so a "thank you Empress for pointing it out, I won't rely on "EuromaidanPress" or "Ukrainska Pravda" etc again" would be warranted instead of weasling out.

There goes another irony meter.

 

[Jimbo07]

I'm intrigued by the 2018 date. On Twitter, TikTok, etc. old photos and videos have popped up, throughout this conflict. I haven't found any corroborating evidence beside CE's link (I haven't looked that hard), but if someone did provide some, I wouldn't be 100% surprised if it was old.

Also, recruiting in the West can sometimes include minors, with parental consent.

So, either way, this is probably not the saddest picture of the war, neither through actual lineage, nor recruiting age.

That said, the concept that Putin is taking young, fresh recruits/conscripts and sending them into another country with so-far demonstrably poor training is sad. Putin has wasted blood and treasure on a miscalculated misadventure. The lack of training/enforcement on war crimes means that culpability goes right to the top. This whole thing is an utterly, absurdly tragic disaster for everyone involved.

I was reading a translation of a transcript of a debate on Russian TV. Apparently everyone, including international organizations are out to get them. Everyone's wrong, but Russia! Time to get their heads out of their...

 

[Oystein]

Dude. Rest for a second. You relayed obviously false propaganda here and I pointed it out. If you didn't intend to do so a "thank you Empress for pointing it out, I won't rely on "EuromaidanPress" or "Ukrainska Pravda" etc again" would be warranted instead of weasling out. This picture has nothing to do with the currrent conflict, no matter if the boys are conscripts or not. You have been duped.

I totally hate when that happens, but I have to agree with CE here. (and with theprestige, but I don't hate that)

 

[Oystein]

...
That said, the concept that Putin is taking young, fresh recruits/conscripts and sending them into another country...

Is the highlighted in evidence for the alleged young conscripts in that photo?

Russia raises conscripts every quarter (or half year? whatever) for the purpose of national defense. This has always been the case, and continues to be the case, war or no war. Many other countries have conscript armies, or used to have them until not long ago (looking at Germany), or are considering a return of conscription. Is that all equally sad? If not, why not? Many conscripts all over the world are not happy about being conscripted but accept it grudgingly.

That young adults - 18 or up - are conscripted is in itself not a sad thing, if you are not a strict pacifist.

So far, on paper at least, Russia does not send significant numbers of conscripts into battle in Ukraine as long as they remain conscripts. There may be exceptions, and it is not nice that they try to talk or bribe conscripts into signing contracts. Still, the mere fact that 18-year olds get conscripted is not a particularly sad fact. But the majority of new conscripts in Russia probably is sent to replace outgoing conscripts in bases and perhaps near the borders all over the huge country.

 

[SpitfireIX]

From the UK MoD this morning:

INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

• Ukrainian armoured forces have continued to assault Russia’s Southern Grouping of Forces on several axes across the south of the country since Monday. Ukrainian formations have pushed the front line back some distance in places, exploiting relatively thinly held Russian defences.
  
• In line with its doctrine, Russia will likely now attempt to plug the gaps in its line using pre-designated mobile reserve units. These will likely include some of those from the Eastern Grouping of Forces.
  
• Russia continues to expedite attempts to generate new reinforcements for Ukraine. Volunteer battalions of the new 3rd Army Corps had departed their home base near Moscow by 24 August, highly likely for onward deployment to Ukraine. The operational effectiveness of these units is not known. The 3rd Army Corps is highly likely short of personnel and these troops have had limited training.

 

[Jimbo07]

Is the highlighted in evidence for the alleged young conscripts in that photo?

No. I addressed the photo. My statement is only peripherally related.

Russia raises conscripts every quarter (or half year? whatever) for the purpose of national defense... conscripted is in itself not a sad thing, if you are not a strict pacifist.

Note: you don't have to be a strict pacifist to find conscription, in general, distasteful.

So far, on paper at least, Russia does not send significant numbers of conscripts into battle in Ukraine as long as they remain conscripts.

Well, now. That's been a source of debate since the start, hasn't it? Putin "denies it?" Conscripts were "mistakenly" sent to Ukraine? Ok.

There may be exceptions,

There sure are! Even by Russia's own admission.

But the majority of new conscripts in Russia probably is sent to replace outgoing conscripts in bases and perhaps near the borders all over the huge country.

The "majority" may, but you only need 51% to make a majority. I'm not sure that Russian conscription should be given a free pass, here.

 

[dudalb]

From the UK MoD this morning:

INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

• Ukrainian armoured forces have continued to assault Russia’s Southern Grouping of Forces on several axes across the south of the country since Monday. Ukrainian formations have pushed the front line back some distance in places, exploiting relatively thinly held Russian defences.
  
• In line with its doctrine, Russia will likely now attempt to plug the gaps in its line using pre-designated mobile reserve units. These will likely include some of those from the Eastern Grouping of Forces.
  
• Russia continues to expedite attempts to generate new reinforcements for Ukraine. Volunteer battalions of the new 3rd Army Corps had departed their home base near Moscow by 24 August, highly likely for onward deployment to Ukraine. The operational effectiveness of these units is not known. The 3rd Army Corps is highly likely short of personnel and these troops have had limited training.

I believe the term is "Cannon Fodder".

 

[The Don]

Don't know whether this is directly related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but it seems to be related to internal struggles in Russia which are likely exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine:

The chairman of Russia's Lukoil oil giant, Ravil Maganov, has died after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, reports say.

Maganov, 67, was being treated at the city's Central Clinical Hospital and died from his injuries, sources told Russian media.

He is the latest of a number of high-profile business executives to die in mysterious circumstances.

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Lukoil called for the war to end.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

Take away from this is that if you're going to be critical of the Russian government, be careful where you stand

 

[jeremyp]

Your own link says these children are conscripts - is that correct or not?

If you click on the image from CE's original link (which is working now) you can see the caption of the photo is October 2018.

 

[Jimbo07]

Don't know whether this is directly related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but it seems to be related to internal struggles in Russia which are likely exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

Take away from this is that if you're going to be critical of the Russian government, be careful where you stand

Certainly not near closed 6th story hospital windows. Those can give at any time...

They did go on to say they suspected suicide.

 

[wobs]

With all the furore about energy prices caused (but not just by) the war in Ukraine, I wondered how much the drive to stop using Russian fossil fuels was affecting Russia. The following two links suggest not much, as their revenue seems pretty much in line with what they got last year, and Jan 2022:
https://www.statista.com/statistics...e from exports of,411.7 million euros per day.
- Chart showing Jan22 to Jul22

https://www.statista.com/chart/2761...n-may-2021-may-2022-and-components-of-change/

Despite the volume and value of Russian fossil fuel exports decreasing since the invasion of Ukraine in late February, Russia was still making around 40 percent more money off its exports of oil, gas and coal in May 2022 than it did one year earlier. This is due to the fossil fuel prices on the world market that inflated even before the start of the war on Ukraine.

As seen in data by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, reductions in exports and discounts the country is currently giving on its fossil fuels are costing the country some. Prices that are that much higher than one year ago, however, mean that Russia is still fetching a fair sum on its fossil fuel exports overall. Crude oil prices, for example, had already reached pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021.

India has increased its imports from Russia, at a discounted rate, but as the value has increased, this discount has been wiped out, meaning they profit quite well from India.

How much of a difference will this make? Surely if they are still raking it in, (even if they switch off to the EU occasionally), and they are selling to countries outside of Europe, they can afford to build more low grade weapons for a long time.

 

[Drewbot]

Russian corruption is causing many of the problems they are having.

The convoy to Kiev stalled because the gas had been sold on the black market during the build up.

Many unit's manpower are vastly over-reported

T-80 MBT Reactive armor never contained the most important part, the explosives.

etc...
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-r...-corruption-is-foiling-putins-army-in-ukraine

 

[theprestige]

How much of a difference will this make? Surely if they are still raking it in, (even if they switch off to the EU occasionally), and they are selling to countries outside of Europe, they can afford to build more low grade weapons for a long time.

Economics is weird to me.

Manufacturing involves, what? Buying raw materials. Buying fuel to move the materials around by the truckload and trainload. Buying energy and water for the manufacturing process. Paying workers in - ultimately - food and shelter to carry out the process.

I think we can safely say Russia has adequate sources of energy, water, and fuel internally, and doesn't need to pay for them. The state can seize what it needs directly. Or pay for them in rubles, or whatever internal, within-their-own-borders economic bookkeeping they end up doing.

Same with their workforce.

Where are the raw materials coming from, though?

If the whole economic envelope is inside their borders, they wouldn't need to sell anything to anyone else to keep manufacturing. Pay their own people rubles for the raw materials. Pay their own gas and electric and water companies in rubles for their services. Put their own fuel into their own trains and trucks. Etc.

I guess there must be some sort of leveraging involved. Russian factories are agreeing to do the work based not on an influx of ready cash, but on the basis of their customer's good credit, underwritten by phat deposits in international bank accounts, from buyers of Russian oil.

Maybe future war crimes tribunals will be less concerned with bringing individual conspirators to justice, and more concerned with ensuring punitive sanctions persist after the war is over, until the credit of the enabler is ruined and their speculative business collapses.

 

[Jimbo07]

Economics is weird to me.

Manufacturing involves, what? Buying raw materials. Buying fuel to move the materials around by the truckload and trainload. Buying energy and water for the manufacturing process. Paying workers in - ultimately - food and shelter to carry out the process.

I think we can safely say Russia has adequate sources of energy, water, and fuel internally, and doesn't need to pay for them. The state can seize what it needs directly. Or pay for them in rubles, or whatever internal, within-their-own-borders economic bookkeeping they end up doing.

Same with their workforce.

Where are the raw materials coming from, though?

If the whole economic envelope is inside their borders, they wouldn't need to sell anything to anyone else to keep manufacturing. Pay their own people rubles for the raw materials. Pay their own gas and electric and water companies in rubles for their services. Put their own fuel into their own trains and trucks. Etc.

I guess there must be some sort of leveraging involved. Russian factories are agreeing to do the work based not on an influx of ready cash, but on the basis of their customer's good credit, underwritten by phat deposits in international bank accounts, from buyers of Russian oil.

Maybe future war crimes tribunals will be less concerned with bringing individual conspirators to justice, and more concerned with ensuring punitive sanctions persist after the war is over, until the credit of the enabler is ruined and their speculative business collapses.

It can do the same with raw materials. Russia has abundant natural resources. That's what these analysts are going on about purchasing power parity. Yes, a certain country's currency may be garbage, but they can do what they want within their own borders.

It's trickier externally, obviously. Several articles have pointed to the trouble Russia is having obtaining the semiconductors needed for modern equipment.

The other thing is that, as far as I understand it, purchasing power parity is a bit of a shell game. There's still a real cost, and the lack of true prosperity starts to hurt. Isn't that what happened with the Soviets? Even with a vast, almost-empire, they couldn't afford to keep up the arms race against the US. You can look strong for a while, but eventually it might give.

Also, in some cases, the factories don't work on cash arrangements, rather, they do what they're told to do. That's just one of the many benefits of running a backwater dictatorship!

Economics is complicated (although, to me, it seems like in some cases, studying 'economics' should be reworded as 'psychology').

 

[lobosrul5]

Economics is weird to me.

Manufacturing involves, what? Buying raw materials. Buying fuel to move the materials around by the truckload and trainload. Buying energy and water for the manufacturing process. Paying workers in - ultimately - food and shelter to carry out the process.

I think we can safely say Russia has adequate sources of energy, water, and fuel internally, and doesn't need to pay for them. The state can seize what it needs directly. Or pay for them in rubles, or whatever internal, within-their-own-borders economic bookkeeping they end up doing.

Same with their workforce.

Where are the raw materials coming from, though?

If the whole economic envelope is inside their borders, they wouldn't need to sell anything to anyone else to keep manufacturing. Pay their own people rubles for the raw materials. Pay their own gas and electric and water companies in rubles for their services. Put their own fuel into their own trains and trucks. Etc.

I guess there must be some sort of leveraging involved. Russian factories are agreeing to do the work based not on an influx of ready cash, but on the basis of their customer's good credit, underwritten by phat deposits in international bank accounts, from buyers of Russian oil.

Maybe future war crimes tribunals will be less concerned with bringing individual conspirators to justice, and more concerned with ensuring punitive sanctions persist after the war is over, until the credit of the enabler is ruined and their speculative business collapses.

From my (almost certainly oversimplified) understanding is, the problem with the Russian economy is underdevelopment in manufacturing and research. Their oligarchs would rather just horde money from selling raw materials rather than that money going to investing in the countries future.