The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Aridas]

Agreed. It's plausibly the same general location but I can't identify any features that match the buildings or indeed identify the vehicle. May well be a true story but the video is not proof so far as I can see. In the last few seconds as the view widens we can see it's a larger group of buildings, with fires in other places too, so it's a larger attack than a single strike on a specific vehicle target.

I'd agree with this not being proof, in and of itself, too. It did look like a similar vehicle to me, though. With that said, as the tale being told goes, it managed to get roughly 100 meters away in the end and the apparent drone footage here is split up into start and end, skipping much of the actual shelling that happened. To add to that, this isn't the only footage available of the attack there. For example, other footage is further down the thread that helps fill in more details, including some of the shelling that likely gave rise to a lot of that smoke, along with the claim that the footage has been geolocated and matches. Overall, I'd count this claim as... probably true, but plausibly false.

 

[theprestige]

Another way to look at the engagement: "A Russian 'Tulip' heavy mortar operated for some time, doing _____ damage to Ukrainian forces, before the Ukrainians were able to track it down with a drone and direct fire onto it."

 

[Jack by the hedge]

There's another video further down that shows the whole engagement. It did move from the original spot but it was in the same building complex when the Ukrainians took it out.

Ah. I didn't see that, thanks. (As a non-user of Twitter I can follow the link but scrolling past the original thread just gets me a log in or sign up banner.)

 

[SpitfireIX]

The Ukrainian government says it won't agree a ceasefire deal with Russia that involves giving up territory.
Kyiv would not follow calls in the West for an urgent ceasefire that involved Russian forces remaining in territory they occupy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...89e9ceb622de4ef9122198&pinned_post_type=share

Money quote:

[Presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak] said making concessions would result in Moscow starting an even larger, more bloody offensive in the longer term.
​

Giving Putin any part of Ukraine would work out about as well as giving Hitler the Sudetenland did. Every democracy in the world needs to recognize this, and resolve to support Ukraine as much as possible, for as long as is necessary. If Russia insists on continuing the war long enough, the country will eventually suffer economic and military collapse. In fact, the economic collapse may already be impossible to prevent, due to events Putin has set in motion.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

I am near certain it is the same area, although the vehicle had to run a few hundred meters before it was hit.

Comparing two still from two different vids:

1. https://twitter.com/i/status/1528286406665285633 (about 12 seconds in)
2. https://twitter.com/i/status/1527752480045551617 (39 seconds in)



I had to rotate, crop and scale this. Quality is beyond the pale, of course.

The building do match to some extent. But the outline of that dark patch of tarmac, or whatever it is? Very compelling to me.

 

[eerok]

Money quote:

[Presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak] said making concessions would result in Moscow starting an even larger, more bloody offensive in the longer term.
​

Giving Putin any part of Ukraine would work out about as well as giving Hitler the Sudetenland did. Every democracy in the world needs to recognize this, and resolve to support Ukraine as much as possible, for as long as is necessary. If Russia insists on continuing the war long enough, the country will eventually suffer economic and military collapse. In fact, the economic collapse may already be impossible to prevent, due to events Putin has set in motion.

Ukraine understands the situation perfectly, just as they did in 2014. Russia is entitled to nothing, but it intends to take everything. There's no common ground on which to negotiate.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I am near certain it is the same area, although the vehicle had to run a few hundred meters before it was hit.

Comparing two still from two different vids:

1. https://twitter.com/i/status/1528286406665285633 (about 12 seconds in)
2. https://twitter.com/i/status/1527752480045551617 (39 seconds in)

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_1063628a61018af30.png[/qimg]

I had to rotate, crop and scale this. Quality is beyond the pale, of course.

The building do match to some extent. But the outline of that dark patch of tarmac, or whatever it is? Very compelling to me.

Well spotted. And the low outbuildings match, as do the two gas cylinders and the trees. Yes, that's clearly the spot where the original Russian video was shot.

 

[Lord Emsworth]

Ah. I didn't see that, thanks. (As a non-user of Twitter I can follow the link but scrolling past the original thread just gets me a log in or sign up banner.)

Just click "Log in" and you'll be able to close the next banner that appears, which allows you to scroll further. (At some point that banner will reappear though)

 

[Andy_Ross]

The Polish president has thanked Ukraine for defending Europe against what he called “Russian imperialism”.

He said recent calls for Kyiv to negotiate with President Putin, and even give into some of his demands, were disturbing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...8a546eb622de4ef91222aa&pinned_post_type=share

 

[crescent]

Well spotted. And the low outbuildings match, as do the two gas cylinders and the trees. Yes, that's clearly the spot where the original Russian video was shot.

This shows an angle to the risk Russia faces in trying to show much of any video from inside Ukraine.

Ukraine doesn't always need satellite imagery or drones to find stuff (although it is very frequently useful and indispensable). Sometimes its just a Ukrainian person seeing the video and saying "Oh, that place! That's my neighbor's cousins farm! I used to work there from time to time."

Point it out on a map, and then drones and arty go get it.

 

[theprestige]

Money quote:

[Presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak] said making concessions would result in Moscow starting an even larger, more bloody offensive in the longer term.
​

Giving Putin any part of Ukraine would work out about as well as giving Hitler the Sudetenland did. Every democracy in the world needs to recognize this, and resolve to support Ukraine as much as possible, for as long as is necessary. If Russia insists on continuing the war long enough, the country will eventually suffer economic and military collapse. In fact, the economic collapse may already be impossible to prevent, due to events Putin has set in motion.

I disagree strongly with this argument.

At the time that Austria and the Sudetenland were conceded, Nazi Germany was at the beginning of a substantial military buildup. Their army was not yet ready to engage in open warfare. Those early concessions gave Hitler some easy wins early on, helped to validate his imperialist vision in the eyes of his generals, and bought time for him to substantially advance his rearmament program before properly going to war.

Conversely, Russia's militarization is in a downward spiral. There is no short-term economic surge to fund a rapid expansion and modernization. There is no morale boost from easy wins early on. There is no validation of Putin's imperialist vision, in the Ukrainian quagmire. He's not buying time to expand and modernize his army. He's just grinding down the rotten nub of the badly decayed Soviet war machine.

I think that, pragmatically, ceding territory to gain a cease fire only buys time for Russia's neighbors to complete their military modernization and expansion programs. Ten years, or even five, of peace will only widen the numerical, technological, and competency gap in Ukraine's favor. Making concessions to Hitler was a bad idea, because the German economy could actually take advantage the time gained. Buying time in this conflict confers no similar advantage on Russia. Quite the opposite!

 

[Andy_Ross]

I think that, pragmatically, ceding territory to gain a cease fire only buys time for Russia's neighbors to complete their military modernization and expansion programs. Ten years, or even five, of peace will only widen the numerical, technological, and competency gap in Ukraine's favor. Making concessions to Hitler was a bad idea, because the German economy could actually take advantage the time gained. Buying time in this conflict confers no similar advantage on Russia. Quite the opposite!

So Ukraine gives territory to Russia to 'buy time'.

Then what? how do they get it back again without being the aggressor and breaking the treaty they signed up to?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Lithuania is no longer importing energy from Russia as of today.

Its energy minister said purchases of gas, oil and electricity from Moscow were stopping to show "solidarity" with Ukraine - and to cut funding for the "Russian war machine".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

 

[Mike!]

What probably explains Putin's "special military operation" best is, he's a power mad dick.

 

[theprestige]

So Ukraine gives territory to Russia to 'buy time'.

Then what? how do they get it back again without being the aggressor and breaking the treaty they signed up to?

My point is that while there may be good reasons to continue the fight, "ceding Donbass to buy peace would benefit Putin the way ceding Sudetenland benefited Hitler" isn't one of them.

The parallel between the two only goes so far.

If you want to argue for some other reason why Ukraine should keep fighting, be my guest.

 

[theprestige]

I don't think this was just a money problem, I believe this cutting-off stemmed more from a desire to "punish" Crimeans because they had chosen to join Russia.

You're the only one who believes that Crimeans actually chose to join Russia.

Crimea hosts a major Russian naval base and staging area for Russian forces. Cutting off the water supply to that is totally reasonable.

 

[junkshop]

Russia has only 10 of them operational (well, now they have 9)

Credit where credit's due:

https://twitter.com/TheMuleFactor/status/1528357438705045504?t=1vl_tdZz85gkFDQ4R5J9Jw&s=19

...Russia has only 10 of them operational (well, now they have 9)...

 

[crescent]

Wagner Group: Russian semi-governmental military organization led by a guy with an SS uniform tattooed onto his body

Russian Wagner PMC merc going a racist tirade about the true objective of the war: preservation of the white race. And they call Ukrainians nazis… Translation below; be warned it’s very graphic

Translation:

This war, guys, just so you understand; this war is not for Ukraine. Not for gas, not for oil, not for <unaudiable>, not even for Crimea, not for any this ****. This war is for the future of the white nation, for the future of the white civilization, for the future of white Russia. If we **** this up, it's over! There will be no more of our civilization. It's the ******* end of the white civilization. Because we are all that've remained (of real white people). <unaudiable> What did others think before? We are the white nation, white Europe, white America. What the **** is going on there now? Arabs, ******* *******, and chin** crawled out of all the cracks, and all of us are faggots! ******* men in dresses, all suck *******' dicks. What is this? Where the **** is the white nation? Where is the pure white blood there? No, there's no one else left! Therefore, the whole world is against us. That is why it's happening now: we are the last ******* bastion of the white man. This war is for our blood. This war is for our genetics. This war is for our great (white) nation to continue to exist; for great white Russia to continue to live. To have a ******* white man's future! That is what we're fighting for. And only in this way. Only in this ******* way, only a white Russian man, a powerful warrior, can build the great Russian empire and preserve the future so that the white nation continues to exist on this planet. That is our ******* mission. That is why we are here. Neither Kyiv, **** it all. Russia for Russians, white Russia for Russians.

Meanwhile, half the world still seems utterly convinced that the nation led by the Jewish guy are the real Nazis. The nation with the elected Jewish leader, that accepts gay people and transgender people (and had a very gay, very campy and fun entry in Eurovision a few years back), the nation that had no problem with a black reporter wandering around and still allows full access for a transgender reporter is somehow the one that everybody thinks to be the more bigoted one. Sure.

 

[Michel H]

You didn't see what I did there.





"If they had capitulated to our demands, we wouldn't have put them in gas chambers. Ergo: their own fault."

M'kay!


1: yes, men with guns overseeing an election, representing a party interested in the outcome of the vote, gets you fairer results. How did I not know that...

2: your concept of what counts as violence makes the word lose all meaning. That aside, you might have a point if Russia's retaliation were retribution sanctions and thus at parity with the hostility directed at them. They instead chose to escalate to bloodshed.

3: "the big picture" would involve more than cherry-picking incidents, using hyperbolic rhetoric for one side and apologism for the other, and the amoral notion that not suplicating oneself to another justifies war crimes.

Deny your support for heinous acts all you like, it is naked for all to see.

ETA: Just so we're keeping score,

Seizure of property under threat of guns: "not particularly violent"

Sanctions: "attacking Russia and Crimea in a very violent way"

I don't know which "seizure of property" you are talking about.

Yes, when you cut off water, electricity and block trade, that's violent against the local population, and sanctions against Russia have been as violent as they have been absurd and unfair. I read recently in an article in French (https://www.lalibre.be/internationa...-vladimir-poutine-7BBD3NWVB5F4XJYPCKXEM6G45M/) that the 2014 sanctions have led to a 10% decrease of the purchasing power of Russians, and to a 10% decrease of the birth rate for the second and third children, because Russian citizens lost confidence in the future.

Ukraine said recently:

Ukraine peace deal: Kyiv rules out ceding land to Russia

(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61542090).

It is possible that one of the practical consequences of this will be that Ukraine will lose even more territory, and will suffer even more destruction and loss of human life.

This is why I believe that those who claim to be the friends of Ukraine, instead (perhaps) of having nice pictures taken with president Zelensky, should urge him to make the necessary concessions, which take into account the Ukrainian specificity, namely that this is a country which has a large Russian speaking population, a part of which (not all of which) want friendly ties with Russia, or to be part of Russia.

 

[dasmiller]

Yes, when you cut off water, electricity and block trade, that's violent against the local population, and sanctions against Russia have been as violent as they have been absurd and unfair.

"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."