Umm, Matt. What part of thoroughly discredited did you miss?
I believe he always knew he couldn't pass a test. He might have thought he could dodge agreeing to particular rules that would have made any noise on the tape ambiguous if rules were not part of the test. The JREF insists on rules and that made his efforts impossible. He complained and answered posts that had nothing to do with the posts that were related to questions that he couldn't answer truthfully without stating he was full of poop. He always knew he had no special abilities.
Personally, I don't think the professor falls in the first category. I do believe a woman currently posting in the "General Skepticism..." category is sincere. I doubt she will stick around much longer now that she is being asked questions that challenge assumptions she believes are true and wishes were never challenged. She will quit this site blaming insensitivity or something similar. She falls in the first category as truly believing in her power (but not enough to realize it isn't a power when unable to prove that power by passing a test). I believe she believes she has powers. I also believe she will fail any tests she s willing to take but she will continue to believe she has powers even after she fails testing. (It is very possible she will refuse to be tested -- if that happens I will say she might fall in the second camp and just wanted publicity.)
However, the professor always realized his impotency.