Kaosium
That is very well argued. I am still unsure though whether you think they became suspicious of Amanda within the first few hours or retrospectively painted themselves as having been on her trail from the get go, thus keeping relatively open minds at the outset. I incline to the former view, based on my deep understanding of human nature

and, I am forced to say it again, Amanda's odd behaviour that morning.
You make all the excellent points which show that, in fact, all those things can be rationalised, as indeed they must be if our two are not to be guilty (and we are not allowing
that!) but those are not a good representation of how first impressions work and human brains work.
By the time Napoleoni shows up, with people milling about, the press hanging over the railings, a very complicated crime scene (burglary + corpse + locked door + unlocked door + faeces + nothing stolen + stolen phones + bomb threat hoax) the smaller number of oddities which presented themselves to Amanda cannot easily be reconstructed as a self-contained set. To them has been added a broken window, two stolen phones and a corpse and I am not sure how easy it will have been psychologically to deconstruct the scene so as to reconstruct how Amanda perceived it.
I'm not disagreeing that Napoleoni might well have been suspicious for these reasons, (alone) merely that by being so she displayed incompetence as a Head of Homicide. However, in her defense, soon into it they might well have had reason to believe that Raffaele had called the
Carabinieri after the Postal Police arrived. The Postal Police would estimate their time of arrival at 12:35, (which would be reflected in Matteini) the
CCTV camera, the time discrepancy polarity of which they have reversed the moment they announce it, ~November 11th, might also be in their possession, just because they didn't announce it to the press or submit it before Matteini doesn't mean they weren't already looking at it days before, and due to the dubious nature of the picture that they'd want to pretend was
'clear cut,' I don't think it unlikely they might have chosen not to present it before Matteini in order to preserve its potential for forcing a confession. Look at it this way, it was a camera pointing directly at the beginning of the driveway of the murder site, if there had been a
purse-snatching it would have been the first thing they checked. I don't think it unlikely they had it soon after the murder and before the arrests of Amanda, Raffaele and Patrick, but chose not to present it before Matteini in order to conceal how undefined the image was.
At any rate, with them possibly assuming the time discrepancy meant the time stamp on the camera was 12 minutes
fast instead of slow, perhaps because that correlated almost perfectly with the estimation of the Postal Police which was in fact 25 minutes off (for their arrival to the cottage, they putzed around for ~10 minutes before going in--they were returning phones having no idea about the murder at this point) they have reason to believe that Raffaele did in fact call the
Carabinieri after the Postal Police arrived, which would remove the (generally) exculpatory circumstances of calling the police to the scene, and in fact make it look like they were
lying about that. In fact what we know of Raffaele's statement of 10:40 on the Fifth, as reflected in Matteini, it leaves open the possibility he called the Carabinieri after the arrival of the Postal Police as well, by using a word for 'meanwhile' which can be interpreted to suggest the Postal Police arrived as he was about to call the Carabinieri.
So it's quite possible going into the night of the Fifth that they believe that there was no actual break-in, and that instead of calling the
Carabinieri to the scene and having the Postal Police show up minutes later, instead the Postal Police surprised them at the scene and they called the
Carabinieri afterward and lied about it.
That's when someone like Napoleoni might well have started considering Amanda and Raffaele's behavior suspicious the morning/afternoon of November 2nd, when the murder was discovered. They look at the window and they see this:
Those fat boys Mignini, Profazio and Chiacchiera aren't about to try to climb up there, so they might well dismiss the possibility of someone climbing in out of hand, which if they (or a more athletic subordinate!) had tried they'd found out it was actually
pretty damned easy to get one's hands on that sill, and any athletic burglar could certainly get in once that was accomplished:
However without that image impressed upon them, they may well think (and at an appearance before Michaeli they tried to present the entrance to the window as being impossible but Michaeli refused to accept that if I recall correctly and thus it was never presented before the Massei Court) that window is an almost impossible climb, that Raffaele and Amanda were surprised about the arrival of the Postal Police and then tried to 'cover that up' by calling the
Carabinieri and then them 'lying' about it, and now they might go over Amanda's 'behavior' the days after the murder and in the throes of confirmation bias see all these 'suspicious' things--and having their phones tapped might well have found something
even more suspicious: Amanda had forgotten to tell them about Patrick's call at ~8:30 PM the night of the murder!
If you go back to the beginning of this thread a number of posters went looking through Italian and other newspapers which suggested the police were (before the arrests of Amanda, Patrick and Raffaele) looking for an 'African' man in connection to the murder. There's also reports from some about the legendary (and never produced in evidence as far as I can tell) 'black man's hair' that might have been found at the murder scene, and if you look at the whole CCTV video you'll see that there's a man
also captured by that camera, though in that 'X-Files-like' Youtube they show the man coming after the figure (presumably Meredith but at this time they thought it Amanda) in the beginning, on the CCTV camera itself that man actually is caught on that camera a little bit before the figure in the light top they thought was Amanda at the time but which was probably Meredith. At any rate some think that male figure more likely to be of African decent, which may well be what ILE thought at the time.
Then you have Raffaele giving his
'interview' to Kate Mansey, in which this is printed:
Kate Mansey 11/4/07 said:
Raffaele had spent the night at his own house on the other side of town with his girlfriend, Meredith's American flatmate Amanda Knox, 22.
He said: "Meredith had gone out with one of her English friends and Amanda and I went to party.
Not
quite Raffaele, the night of the murder was not the night you'd gone out and parted at the square, it was the next night where you both stayed in. This is what can happen 'taking the edge' off with the fragrant 'pharmaceuticals!' However to the police, whom there's every reason to believe were watching the papers closely the days after the murder, (after all that's where they'd get their three 'Super-witnesses' from, and of course Mignini would be filing charges on many of them!) if they were to see this, printed on the Forth and available on the website the same day, they might well wonder why Raffaele's 'story' is that they went out that night, when Amanda (and Raffaele before with the Postal Police) has been telling them that night they stayed in all night, which is of course what they did.
So those things might well have provoked suspicion, and there's something else that I was reminded of looking for that Kate Mansey article, Amanda had of course been telling them about the mop to clean up the spill due to the 'suspicious' pipe breaking the night of the murder. You can see that reflected
here in a later Mansey article:
Kate Mansey Sunday Mirror 11/11/07 said:
The suspects used a mop and bucket to clean up the murder scene which Knox, an American, hid at her Sollecito's house after the killing.
Of course there wasn't actually a 'clean-up,' but at this point when their 'hypothesis' are being printed as facts, the pure coincidence that Amanda and Raffaele had need of a mop at Raffaele's becomes 'evidence' of a clean-up as the
Polizia di Stato are just now getting reports from the
Polizia Scientifica and as you can see they're finding evidence of someone else entirely, someone they know isn't Patrick Lumumba:
Kate Mansey Sunday Mirror 11/11/07 said:
A FOURTH suspect in the gruesome Meredith Kercher murder was last night being tracked across Europe - after he was caught on CCTV leaving the scene of the crime.
Italian police have seized footage from a camera in a car park overlooking the British student's home.
Detectives know the identity of the man - a North African North Africa
musician believed to have fled to France - and are desperately hunting him down.
They believe his bloody fingerprint is on a cushion in the bedroom where the 21-year-old was stabbed in the neck three times when a horrifying sex game went wrong.
A judge has already ruled that the three other suspects - flatmate Amanda Knox, 20, her lover Raffaele Sollecito, 23, and bar owner Patrick Diya Lumumba, 37 - will held in prison for up to a year before formal charges are brought.
A police source told the Sunday Mirror last night: "We now have evidence a fourth suspect was involved and we're on his tail."
This is when they actually released their information about the CCTV camera, and at this point they're on Rudy Guede's trail. It's also becoming apparent that Patrick Lumumba probably had nothing to do with it:
Kate Mansey Daily Mirror 11/11/07 said:
Meanwhile Lumumba - Amanda's boss and a Congolese immigrant - claims he is completely innocent.
He says 16 people including a university professor support his alibi that he was in his bar Le Chic that night.
So if they did have this camera footage before this, when they released knowledge of it they were in fact starting to become aware of the possibility that Patrick had nothing to do with the murder. Of course Amanda's note on the sixth telling them how confused she was (thanks to their lies/mistakes) and that she couldn't be used as 'testimone' against him, and of course her note of the seventh where she completely withdraws it saying she now realizes she never left Raffaele's and couldn't know ought to have been a big hint as well.
If they had the CCTV camera footage and as this suggests an anonymous police source...
Kate Mansey Sunday Mirror 11/11/07 said:
'A police source told the Sunday Mirror last night: "We now have evidence a fourth suspect was involved and we're on his tail."
...my guess is that's Marco Chiacchiera, whom Kate Mansey had quoted in the previous week, who's actually solving the murder behind the scenes as Napoleoni, Mignini and others are chasing ghosts like 'Foxy Knoxy' and telling reporters nonsense like this:
Kate Mansey Sunday Mirror 11/11/07 said:
Traces of Meredith's blood was found on Sollecito's underwear after police searched his home.
The suspects used a mop and bucket to clean up the murder scene which Knox, an American, hid at her Sollecito's house after the killing
Meredith was still alive when her attackers fled the home, leaving her to bleed to death
Knox lived for sex and drugs, was "up for anything" - and had bedded a string of men since arriving in Perugia three months ago.
COPS believe lovers Knox and Sollecito plotted the sex attack together and even went shopping for sexy underwear the day before Meredith's death.
THE man being hunted was seen in a launderette soon after the murder and is believed to have helped in the clean-up.
The sick details of the night before Meredith's death became clear yesterday after Judge Claudia Matteini gave her reasons for holding the prime suspects for up to a year. Meredith's attackers, high on drugs and drink, apparently demanded sex and tried to force her into an orgy.
Police say forensic evidence revealed Knox's fingerprints on Meredith's face when she pinned her down while others violated her.
A leaked police report reveals: "Meredith went into her room with Lumumba, after which something went wrong ... in all probability, Sollecito came in and the two tried a swap, which Meredith refused."
None of that is true, outside Amanda did need to get some underwear as she was locked out of her house due to it being a crime scene, but that happened
after the murder, I think Mansey might just have gotten mixed up there as that 'story' should have been making the round right about then. The 'string of men' they were telling people about was entirely untrue, she'd been with Daniel Deluca and then Raffaele, two whole boys in two or so months. Obviously there were no fingerprints on Meredith's face, nor Meredith's blood on Raffaele's underwear, and that mop and bucket was never used on blood and the crime scene was never cleaned with a mop almost certainly.
At any rate, at this point it appears Chiacchiera is in the process of tracking down Rudy and the rest of the police and prosecutor are chasing ghosts of 'Foxy Knoxy'--a narrative they've
completely invented as at this point Lalli cannot even determine if there was an actual sexual assault:
Neil Syson The Sun 11/7/07 said:
Last night an autopsy revealed Meredith had sex in the hours before she died, but was NOT raped.
I bring that article into it for this:
Neil Syson The Sun 11/7/07 said:
COPS have found fingerprints on two phones belonging to murdered language student Meredith Kercher, which they believe will lead to her killer.
The English and Italian mobiles were in undergrowth near the cottage in Italy where the 21-year-old was discovered with her throat slashed.
I wonder whatever happened to those fingerprints on the phones?
To bring this all to a conclusion, I think there were coincidental circumstances along with a healthy dollup of incompetence which led to them becoming 'suspicious' of Amanda and Raffaele, and quite possibly Patrick Lumumba instead. I don't know exactly what they all were, especially in Patrick's case as their story eventually changed to insist that was all Amanda's doing, which worked out well for them even though it didn't match the facts. The CCTV camera is a guess, if they had it and initially thought it might be Patrick (due to him swapping out the SIM card) but had changed their minds by the time they released it by which time Rudy's bloody print would have told them someone else had to be involved, I don't know for sure. What I do know is the less they actually had the stupider they look in retrospect so I'm actually trying to give them the benefit of the doubt here!
They had three days from the discovery of the murder to the fateful interrogation night and we know they'd already tapped Raffaele and Amanda's phones. The camera pointing towards the entry of the drive way is an
obvious place to look, so my guess is they'd recovered it already but thought it (initially) as Patrick and Amanda meeting up the night of the murder, as opposed to (probably) being Meredith and Rudy. By the time they got around to revealing it they knew that Rudy was involved, and all of Patrick's witnesses coming forth ought to have suggested to them Patrick probably wasn't, which is also what they were getting from Amanda who was recovering from the mind-pucking they gave her. I wonder if they didn't choose to reveal that CCTV camera footage in hopes it would force Amanda to 'confess' who she really 'saw' or somesuch?
I agree with you about the English bitches virgins and believe they may have done quite a bit of nodding and winking, tutting and clucking and 'do you remember that time she broke out singing at such and such a place and didn't I tell you she was strange' to build a conducive background noise.
In fairness to them, they were back in England getting all sorts of bizarre reports like the ones above, and naturally they like everyone else would assume the police must be telling the truth and have it right. They were also being elicited by tabloid reporters who
know how to get the kinds of quotes they need, and take things out of context to make them sound more tawdry and salacious. Despite that when they got to court they did admit to the truth, that Meredith and Amanda got along fine, although I think Robyn Butterworth 'imagined there was some tension' between them but that was just her 'perception' after the fact.
That the cops spent 50 hours or whatever it was with Amanda and had info on her eating pizza and tapped phone calls and buying underwear and running into Patrick on 05 Nov suggests a high degree of interest and also not solving these things probably hurts your head quite a bit.
Who else did they spend 50 hours with? What other suspects were there on whom any serious time was spent at all?
I don't disagree! I just think it was more complicated than what they tried to pretend later. Their problem was all the things that
seemed so damning against Raffaele, Amanda and Patrick at the time were just coincidences or mistakes on their part, and they can't say that part later or people will realize they might have made a mistake! So instead they had to focus on Amanda's 'bizarre behavior' which wasn't
really that unusual, but it
did fit with the 'Foxy Knoxy' mythology, and they really didn't want people remembering they eliminated the possibility of a break-in at the start due to a hasty judgment, that they had the CCTV camera footage wrong, that Amanda forgetting about Patrick texting was meaningless, that basically
everything they'd produce against them before Matteini and to the press the weeks after the murder was
wrong. But they sure as hell did want people to think Amanda was a grade-A whack-a-mole!
