The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[kevsta]

with regards gaps, not all of my platforms are even showing the GBP gap, but the ECN I primarily trade on is supposedly live into an Interbank provider so I trust that more than MT4 platforms with brokers as intermediaries, as they receive the Interbank feeds and then re-process them to us.

 

[kevsta]

I tried to do that in my prior post where I honestly could not discern why you had defined "pushes" in what seemed to be an arbitrary manner. IOW, some extended pushes could have been broken into two or more and I saw what looked like pushes as valid as any others glossed over and ignored.

but I replied with a very detailed drawing showing the pinpoint connection to the bars of the pushes, crossing both my lines,and over a one-two day timespan, and you never answered me on that? so I assumed you were satisfied with the answer? you probably didnt even read it did you?

thank you, finally. as I've said before, I can go into any point at any market (thus far I ever tried and its a lot) and draw out not only the main pushes but at every timescale too, and clearly from the top and bottom pins of the bars, over a specific duration of time.

inside it is extremely detailed and very clear why http://clip2net.com/s/5yJI5r but as you bring it out to larger views the lines move.

do you want me to go all the way down to 1 min again? I already did it for the Nikkei

this might also help, along with the drawing

a push is not considered a push if it subequently retraces to where it was, it only counts if it closes out trading at the new level, or with only a pullback, not a complete retrace.

you have to identify where the zone actually shifts and stays there.

we are interested in the move that crosses, or stopruns our lines. everything else, is indeed noise.
.

Which does not, of course, mean they're not there. But I still hold that as soon as the patterns are clearly seen, more people will start acting on them which will dilute the effect until its refined, and so on.

now here's where this breaks down to a theory / practical answer, because in theory you are correct. however in practice, this is excessively difficult, to achieve, and then sustain, and so not enough people are ever going to get it to that level of skill, to be able to make theory become practice.

BTW, have we chosen one real money account to track over time? If so, how is it doing right now? And remember how bad my memory is when responding!

ha, well, I can tell you that the 500x leverage tiny size (live) demo is off, because demo mode has served it's purpose very well in clearly identifying the limits of small size and high leverage, and because I cant scale into positions without going into 2, 4 and 6% risk per trade in my usual developed style we're just Yo-yo-ing back and forth past zero this week, down to 964 at lowest, and 1077 at highest, currently back around zero again.

and as I did tell you, I don't live trade unless I can give it undevoted attention (demo & testing is ok) there's not going to be very much of it going on for a while, a few weeks at least.

And as I did also tell you that I am not intending to keep posting my ongoing live results (more than once) but this is the situation.

2 live accounts now, one for Forex and another for Futures. all the stuff Ive posted in the last couple of weeks is real money trading. not attempting to make a living wholly on this yet as my other job won't seem to go away, but am hoping it will one day get there. just going to try and patiently grow the accounts part-time

and they are both up, but I am absolutely serious when I tell you that I will not be subjecting my live trading to the extra pressure of reporting to you lot in here about it all the time, because accounts go up, and they go down, it is called "drawdown" and when you start out it is terrifying, but when you are confident your system works, its just another day.

so really, until annual report time and for the last time, until I work out a workable small live system anyway, you may as well stop asking, because from this point on I am just going to stop answering. or even posting if it continues, to be honest, as none of this is helping me in any way at at all.

in fact stevea made me think more about what he wrote than the last 11 pages in total have.

 

[psionl0]

once again, you really need to be in trader mindset, to get it.

I don't know what a "trader mindset" is.

AFAIK If you have divined that prices have hit a peak or are otherwise going to fall then it is time to sell. If you have divined that prices have hit a trough or are otherwise about to rise then it is time to buy.

If you can't put words like "sell" or "buy" on your charts then you have lost everybody.

 

[kevsta]

other screenshots taken this week

Apple - smells like distribution to me

S&P update, from the top this was 70 (700) pts up before the bounce. (off a line I drew days / weeks ago once more, certainly on 17th August here)

Nikkei

 

[kevsta]

I don't know what a "trader mindset" is.

then d/l and TRY IT

you have to imagine, trying to make a directional bet, at a point, with a limit to how far it can run the other way (your stoploss)

where can you effectively take trades on the chart with no running back against you and lots of movement in front?

AFAIK If you have divined that prices have hit a peak or are otherwise going to fall then it is time to sell. If you have divined that prices have hit a trough or are otherwise about to rise then it is time to buy.

If you can't put words like "sell" or "buy" on your charts then you have lost everybody.

long / short? same thing.

 

[oifvetforreason]

You talk about emotions and "trader mindset" a lot. My question is, if these charts and 1,2,3...1 pushes aren't being picked arbitrarily, why not take emotion out and let a computer do your trading for you? I still think that your charts are examples of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, which would, of course, prevent you from writing code to do your trading for you.
Could you, in simple mathematic terms, and without posting a picture of a chart, explain how you decide where to put those impressive circles?
To make it easier to understand, please use phrases like the following;
"If the price goes down more than Xpercent after a recent upward move (and, here, please define recent), that is push 1."
Or, just answer this question: if the system is not arbitrary, why not use a computer to trade?

 

[kevsta]

You talk about emotions and "trader mindset" a lot.

because unbeknownst to most people not involved, it is THE most important part of trading. THE PRIMARY FACTOR. as I have continually stated, just knowing which way next roughly is not nearly enough, if you are a human trader, you have to deal first with yourself, and then with real life getting in the way of trading.

all week, on and off I have been waiting for and early, trying to catch moves that finally all went today, while I was on the phone for an hour.

..taking small hits and out again with small (still 2:1) wins, but really not moving forwards, just stationary, because none of the big moves ran, until I wasnt ready.

My question is, if these charts and 1,2,3...1 pushes aren't being picked arbitrarily, why not take emotion out and let a computer do your trading for you? I still think that your charts are examples of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, which would, of course, prevent you from writing code to do your trading for you.

I don't know what that is, but I have stated before I do think this would be difficult to program, because there is a lot of waiting and patience and discipline required, and then act at a specific time.

The point is, that even if price is going to turn at a level, it may well run past it a bit, and loiter around there a day or two and perform the stoprun 20 pips higher. so if you're working with a 10-15pip stoploss you might take incorrectly timed 5 hits before the big one comes. (and then miss it lol)

Could you, in simple mathematic terms, and without posting a picture of a chart, explain how you decide where to put those impressive circles?

lol, without charts? I'll try. I draw in the horizontal lines, because I am confident from past price action that they are significant levels, for whatever reason.

In a perfect world, I then wait until price comes up and penetrates a line, in line with (opposite to) the cycle I am expecting and sells down hard again, closing the other side of it. If they do it again, so much the better, and basically try to take the trade at or a better price than the pre-drawn line.

If it is an area I can see as significant, then retail world can too, and they will be basing their trading decisions (and their stoplosses = money waiting to be collected) around support / resistance, etc. I want to see that money properly collected, then act.

To make it easier to understand, please use phrases like the following;
"If the price goes down more than Xpercent after a recent upward move (and, here, please define recent), that is push 1."

ok then, if you want to get specific, please define your timescales? a push on a 5 min chart is of a different proportions to on an hourly chart.

Forex is actually VERY specific with daily ranges, daily Forex pushes are 3 x 70-90 pips, spread across 3 days (not necessarily one after the other) but this will vary with every market and every timescale.

Once again please pick one and I will go into the greatest detail for you. If you were to attempt your own research you would probably be very surprised at the regularity of Forex pushes and ranges.

Or, just answer this question: if the system is not arbitrary, why not use a computer to trade?

is arbitrary and subjective the same thing?

and with regards using computers, there is one way it could work, if you didnt have to use stoplosses and could ultimately ensure that you can sell enough until the market rolls your way, even if it ran a bit past where you thought, then it could work. very well indeed.

If you have to define your risk, at a specific line, and the marketmaker can see the lines the same as we can, IMO you can not beat them.

only attempt to track and join in occasionally.

 

[kevsta]

and a chart anyway, to illustrate the collection of all the early buyers stop money

there is only one safe entry there for a long, and that is AFTER the stoprun. how do i program a computer to watch and react to that? any ideas, I'll be all over it like a rash, I promise.

the other thing here, is that not only do these prices close on lines to the pip, but they do it regularly, every 15 mins.

or 10mins, or 5, or 3, or 1 hour, or 4 hours.. like Ive said before, it is SO ****** clever.

edit, and this one, 2 false starts on this and late on this too, I should have taken it at th top of the grey box, not the bottom but its a super-extended 3rd push and only on demo so I risked it, because its potentially 3 more back down from here.

but once again, look where its stopped and bounced? http://fxpro.ctrader.com/c/B45nn

all I do is extend boxes across, and price plays around them. coincidence? I dont think so.

 

[kevsta]

first pop at coffee this week, could have gone horribly wrong

hence demo first, if youre sensible, eh.

in the military this is called negligent discharge, here its called accidental overleverage x10

 

[kevsta]

and in the interests of full disclosure, I was in PMs with someone about a stock which I had never heard of, but my red and blue game says is probably going up, in time.

I made 2 predictions, one of which was a potential system fail, I actually traded it and didnt lose, but was stopped at zero. however this is probably the closest you'll ever get to a stock tip from me, but I think this is going up immininently.

anybody own this? Im bullish on your stocks never thought I'd say that lol. please dont buy it based on my red and blue game, (haha as if) but I really do think its due one bounce on the weekly chart.

whats the news, has it been all awful for ages? that's what its like when a stock is in accumulation.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

On your coffee chart, I see a fourth push up. And a four push downs and maybe a fifth. They don't have lines on them.

Reason?

 

[kevsta]

On your coffee chart, I see a fourth push up. And a four push downs and maybe a fifth. They don't have lines on them.

Reason?

yes, the reason is because once you hit level 3, that is the reversal pivot point, even though the third push then often, but not always extends one further level, to give the setup, but as I said once before, if that then retraces back to the level 3 (first box) it was an extended third push, not a fourth.

and they almost always do retrace, I have never yet seen one not retrace, put it that way.

If it had just kept on going down, then yes, that would have been a fourth push, ie when it made the fifth, the fourth would have been confirmed.

remember, a push is not a push, if it subsequently retraces, we are looking for when levels shift and stay there, to confirm a push.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

other screenshots taken this week

Apple - smells like distribution to me

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1377122572-clip-57kb.png

S&P update, from the top this was 70 (700) pts up before the bounce. (off a line I drew days / weeks ago once more, certainly on 17th August here)

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1377269123-clip-36kb.png

Nikkei

http://clip2net.com/clip/m0/1377269601-clip-40kb.png

Wow, all quite impressive. How much pretend money did you make?

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

yes, the reason is because once you hit level 3, that is the reversal pivot point, even though the third push then often, but not always extends one further level, to give the setup, but as I said once before, if that then retraces back to the level 3 (first box) it was an extended third push, not a fourth.

and they almost always do retrace, I have never yet seen one not retrace, put it that way.

If it had just kept on going down, then yes, that would have been a fourth push, ie when it made the fifth, the fourth would have been confirmed.

remember, a push is not a push, if it subsequently retraces, we are looking for when levels shift and stay there, to confirm a push.

I doubt anyone here would disagree with your assessment.

 

[kevsta]

I spend a lot of time looking back. and whilst I may have a longer term view on precious metals, next time I see this, it will be very different.

 

[kevsta]

Wow, all quite impressive. How much pretend money did you make?

more than you. and your mum.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

yes, the reason is because once you hit level 3, that is the reversal pivot point, even though the third push then often, but not always extends one further level, to give the setup, but as I said once before, if that then retraces back to the level 3 (first box) it was an extended third push, not a fourth.

and they almost always do retrace, I have never yet seen one not retrace, put it that way.

If it had just kept on going down, then yes, that would have been a fourth push, ie when it made the fifth, the fourth would have been confirmed.

remember, a push is not a push, if it subsequently retraces, we are looking for when levels shift and stay there, to confirm a push.

Sorry. Cannot make sense of that for whatever reason.

I just do not have the eyes to see what you see.

 

[kevsta]

Sorry. Cannot make sense of that for whatever reason.

I just do not have the eyes to see what you see.

I dont understand why you cant see the pushes crossing the lines, and ultimately rotating around the 3rd level, even if it extends further, but hey, no worries, because I've had several PM s from people who can and (I think) are now possibly wondering a little, so I know it's not only me.

(apart from the leagues of marketmaker system based traders too, obviously, lol)

 

[Fast Eddie B]

ha, well, I can tell you that the 500x leverage tiny size (live) demo is off, because demo mode has served it's purpose very well in clearly identifying the limits of small size and high leverage, and because I cant scale into positions without going into 2, 4 and 6% risk per trade in my usual developed style we're just Yo-yo-ing back and forth past zero this week, down to 964 at lowest, and 1077 at highest, currently back around zero again.

Translate, please? What does "off" mean? And how did the account do overall? Does "back around zero" mean it broke even? Simple terms, please.

And as I did also tell you that I am not intending to keep posting my ongoing live results (more than once) but this is the situation....but I am absolutely serious when I tell you that I will not be subjecting my live trading to the extra pressure of reporting to you lot in here about it all the time, because accounts go up, and they go down, it is called "drawdown" and when you start out it is terrifying, but when you are confident your system works, its just another day.

Is it just me, or is that really weasel-y? It's not like you haven't taken the time to crow about every little up or down pip you've called.

Maybe do choose an account, pin it down for us, then report back in a year. If we don't hear from you, our suspicions will be confirmed. If you're a big winner, maybe you can throw us a party?

 

[Fast Eddie B]

I dont understand why you cant see the pushes crossing the lines, and ultimately rotating around the 3rd level, even if it extends further...

Nope. Can't see them.

It's possibly like the way I can't see red and green like normal people. I just can't see the numbers the colored dots make, but people with normal color vision swear they're there.

Maybe we should coin a term: Chart Pattern Recognition Blindness.

CPRB for short.