The Markets, Trading & Charts Thread

[kevsta]

My memory is not what it was.

But you commonly use terms that I don't recognize. I did not know what "forex" was, nor "pips", etc.

And I did not equate "live account" with "real money account".

So...

...how many live accounts to you have? This is important to avoid cherry picking and the file drawer effect.

When were they opened and with what amounts?

And how is each doing, both in actual and percentage gains.

Please be concise and clear - this is the "proof of the pudding" that many of us have felt your posts were lacking.

And, for clarity, from this point on maybe only post the results of live accounts - the rest is to east to post hoc rationalize to be very convincing.

lulz. cant you read either? or maybe once you've posted all your personal financial stuff all over the internet I might re-think.

I AM GOING TO OPEN A NEW ACCOUNT AND MAKE IT PERFORM AT 10x THE OUTPUT OF MY CURRENT LIVE ONES, SIZE FOR SIZE, LIVE, HERE.

IN THE MEANTIME THEY ARE ON HOLD ANYWAY, BECAUSE I DO NOT TRADE LIVE WHEN MY OTHER JOB IS PRESSING ME.

If that is not good enough for you, then I think nothing ever will be and I might be taking a while out from JREF I think.

Because Im not being funny, but this is like dealing with my senile old uncle.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

Headed out for errands...will reply later...

...if I can remember!

 

[kevsta]

That sounds pretty much exactly like my simplistic "sell down 5%, hold on upside and bracket up waiting for a future 5% pullback to sell". That has the advantage of not limiting upside to 4%.

the straight 2:1 in and out is the basic method, the trick is to be taking them in multiple parts at the bottom or top of a 3 push cycle, that way the 60% comes out at end of push 1, 30% at end push 2, and 10% at end push 3.

way way way more than 4%, if you can catch all 3 cycles. like the CAD trade I have live on the 2 day old 500x demo now, it's currently at +3% account size (€33), but if it runs 3 cycles up now it will be more like €280-300, and +28-30% account size.

exactly the same size wins from a €10k account at 1% risk. and 10:1 wins like this, bring the overall risk reward right up.

here was when I caught all 3 on the Aussie last week, the final 10% of the trade on it's own cashed out at €220. (actually it wasn't the final here it was the only, but theoretically)

But that's 2.2% on 10k and 22% on a 1k account, isnt it?

Schemes like that have been around for the 40 years of so I've been investing, and probably for centuries. They sound good, but I don't think any has been shown to be profitable over time.

this is not a scheme like any you have considered before. it is a trading system based around the facts I have observed and continually asserted with no real challenges of any sort, and the way the market moves

1. Price always breaks highs / lows before reversing (stoprun)
2. markets move in a deceptive, hypnotic, but somewhat predictable 3 push wave, at every timescale.
3. Bid Ask spread behavior can give clues as to timing at turns
4. There IS an effective way to trade this.

as far Im concerned, these first 3 observations are fact, and No. 4's case is gaining strength every single day

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

1. Price always breaks highs / lows before reversing (stoprun)

Translation: Prices go up before they go down. Or, conversely, prices go down before they go up.

It looks like your months of intense study have paid off. Well done!!!!

 

[kevsta]

Translation: Prices go up before they go down. Or, conversely, prices go down before they go up.

It looks like your months of intense study have paid off. Well done!!!!

if you had the first idea what you were talking about, you would probably understand how many traders are laughing their lolz off at you right now

 

[kevsta]

Headed out for errands...will reply later...

...if I can remember!

with all due respect, you don't need to, if it's just more of the same. I think we've said all there is to say about my fighter pilot's licence for the moment.

If nobody wants to discuss the observations, then I am most definitely wasting my time.

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

with all due respect, you don't need to, if it's just more of the same. I think we've said all there is to say about my fighter pilot's licence for the moment.

If nobody wants to discuss the observations, then I am most definitely wasting my time.

Well, your "observations" are providing amusement, but if you think anyone here is going to believe your charting nonsense, then yeah, you're probably wasting your time.

 

[kevsta]

Well, your "observations" are providing amusement, but if you think anyone here is going to believe your charting nonsense, then yeah, you're probably wasting your time.

"believe" no. I would not have done that. be curious enough to go off and look themselves like I did? yea I might have hoped for a bit of that.

what a joke, eh though. as if.

so what did we say at the beginning? 1 in 10000 might have a hope of getting here eventually? I think it would be a lot less than 1 in 10,000 of the commenters here thus far.

we have people saying "youre using terms I havent heard of, like Forex" on page 10, when page one has about 5 long and detailed posts describing every aspect of it, with links to all sources. its the biggest daily volume traded market in the world. The Forex market pushes your investments around every single day. But you havent head of it and yet feel qualified to question me about what goes on there? I mean, seriously?

we have indisputable facts, that almost everybody loses in a zero sum market but nobody makes any..

nobody seems to read anything at all, judging by the fact they trot the same old nonsense out every two pages having been thoroughly silenced with facts last time.

and the level of critical thought here is an utter joke. everybody has their own little preconceptions which are always correct.

well guess what. yes, I think time is most definitely being wasted.

 

[psionl0]

how can you not understand that if I set my stoploss to say €20 (a 2% loss) and my take profit to €40 (4%) and walk away, and then win 50/50, that I'll be up?

Reducto ad absurdum thought exercise...

kevsta has found a way to profit from a 50/50 outcome by structuring his bets.

I think that Kevsta is saying that he gets 2:1 odds on his 50/50 bets. That's a lot better than even money.

It's fine to be skeptical here but let's keep out of strawman territory.

 

[kevsta]

I think that Kevsta is saying that he gets 2:1 odds on his 50/50 bets. That's a lot better than even money.

2;1 overall operational minimum, many of the trade tranches are targeting 5 or 10 to 1.

on say a 10/30/60 split, the 60% will be cashing out at the overall 2:1 level, if the other 2 hit zero again, its still 2:1 over all.

if they run on..

 

[oifvetforreason]

At this point, it seems like the only thing you want to hear is, "yes, your system is flawless and sure to make you very very rich."
I still don't understand many of your claims, though. Since you said that my earlier scenario (charts revealed one increment at a time, you say when the set-up is ready) is what you are every day during live trading, would you feel comfortable making predictions from charts that other people post?
Also, since you claim to bill your SEO services at 150 per hour, it seems like it would pretty easy to get a 15000 real account pumping out profits.
Last thing, you keep saying that doubters should try an account on demo and see how hard it is. I would be willing to bet any amount of money that I could create a demo account, make the same number of trades that you have, and crush your returns. (Of course there would be about 50 other demo accounts that would range from horrible losers to mediocre to some just barely better than your returns.)

 

[psionl0]

on say a 10/30/60 split, the 60% will be cashing out at the overall 2:1 level, if the other 2 hit zero again, its still 2:1 over all.

1.6:1 according to my maths.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

with all due respect, you don't need to, if it's just more of the same. I think we've said all there is to say about my fighter pilot's licence for the moment.

If nobody wants to discuss the observations, then I am most definitely wasting my time.

No need to get testy.

With all due respect...

...you are the one that chose a skeptical forum to make your case. For whatever motive.

You should not be surprised that many here are skeptical of your claims. It's kind of our job.

You could make the same claims on www.forexguru.com or www.speculatorsRUs.com or www.chartsnostradamus.com (all fictional, I think) and find a more credulous group to discuss your strategy with.

But here, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and I, for one, have yet to see that evidence.

But you have slipped into a common mindset, it would appear. Someone comes to this site with their latest theory, about astrology or flaws in evolution or homeopathy or astronomy or physics, and when skeptics on a skeptical site remain skeptical, they resort to calling those who don't agree as closed-minded or worse.

I still don't claim to know exactly what FOREX is about, or what a pip is, or what a stopgap is, or how a high or low is tested, or what sort of 3-wave theory you go on about. That part of it does not interest me.

In much the same way that you probably dismiss astrology, without having to learn the language and rationale behind it. You understand enough basic concepts to know that astrology, as presented, cannot work in the way it is claimed.

But, if you posted here to see what skeptics might have to say that might inform you as to the reasonableness of your claims, then please listen with an open mind, as some here have attempted to do with your claims.

But if YOUR mind is made up, as it appears to be, then at least for you this is probably a waste of time, made inevitable by the forum in which you chose to present it.

 

[kevsta]

1.6:1 according to my maths.

well no, because it depends on where you take the profit doesn't it?

if I'm risking (say) €100 total, when the 0.6 part gets to €200, cash it out and move the stoplosses on the other parts to zero?

at that point the whole trade is 2:1 locked in, with the possibility of further wins from the last 40% and no further losses? and because the 60% will be at the lowest (buy) price (so the trade starts earlier) it will also hit this point first

kapiche?

 

[kevsta]

At this point, it seems like the only thing you want to hear is, "yes, your system is flawless and sure to make you very very rich."

no, its really not what I wanted to hear.

I still don't understand many of your claims, though. Since you said that my earlier scenario (charts revealed one increment at a time, you say when the set-up is ready) is what you are every day during live trading, would you feel comfortable making predictions from charts that other people post?

if you have been reading this thread though, are you not prepared to admit I have pre called the last 4 turns on the Nikkei? and now the rolling over of the S&P ?

under certain conditions, ie my trading conditions. you'll note my trading charts are in a specific format, I need to be able to see the hours the Asian / London / NY sessions run easily, and I need to be able to see far enough back to see where we are in the overall cycles. I need to be able to insert the HPM (level) lines in, and (back) track the pushes crossing them etc.

and you need to understand that trading predictions work on probability. ie

"We are in level 3, so we short the top, and long the bottom until it breaks out"

"we have seen push one, now looking for manipulation at this lower line, to go in long"

and that no trades are taken until we see that

because as I have said all along, cycle and direction means NOTHING if every time you try to get in, you get robbed.

Also, since you claim to bill your SEO services at 150 per hour, it seems like it would pretty easy to get a 15000 real account pumping out profits.

there is no claim about it, it has been €100 an hour consulting for the last 2 years now, call / mail the number and ask me, I can invoice you if you want.

Last thing, you keep saying that doubters should try an account on demo and see how hard it is. I would be willing to bet any amount of money that I could create a demo account, make the same number of trades that you have, and crush your returns. (Of course there would be about 50 other demo accounts that would range from horrible losers to mediocre to some just barely better than your returns.)

ok, see this is more the kind of thing I was hoping for. because I would be willing to bet a decent sum of money that you couldn't start out with ten accounts, make 10 trades on each of them, and still be in profit on any of them.

In theory, you could open a few, put one trade on each with no stoploss (and so genuine 50/50 odds) and come back to see if any were in profit, then work that one

but practical however is NOT the same as theory and I am willing to bet you any amount of money that you cannot methodically bash an account, any account, up 2-5% per day with multiple trades.

how about you open two demos, give me the logins to one and I'll do it on your other one while you go backwards?

edit. and on the "predict any chart thing" on about page 2 I asked people to suggest a random wierd currency pair I've never looked at (there are still lots) and I would predict it by trading it live here? ...........<tumbleweed>

edit. edit. how about this one? http://fxpro.ctrader.com/images/screens/TBf5n.png I give you my word I don't even know what the SEK part stands for, this is the first time I ever looked in here, but look at that pip range top right) 250 pips

from the bottom of that move to the top is 800+ pips in a couple of days, likin' the look of this one

ps. Eddie, there are 100 pips in a 1% move, ie 1.3000 to 1.31000 is a 100 pip move

 

[psionl0]

if I'm risking (say) €100 total, when the 0.6 part gets to €200, cash it out and move the stoplosses on the other parts to zero?
...
kapiche?

I think that Kevsta is saying that he gets an average of 2:1 odds on his 50/50 bets..

I think that puts us on the same wavelength.

 

[kevsta]

No need to get testy.

With all due respect...

...you are the one that chose a skeptical forum to make your case. For whatever motive.

You should not be surprised that many here are skeptical of your claims. It's kind of our job.

You could make the same claims on www.forexguru.com or www.speculatorsRUs.com or www.chartsnostradamus.com (all fictional, I think) and find a more credulous group to discuss your strategy with.

But here, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and I, for one, have yet to see that evidence.

But you have slipped into a common mindset, it would appear. Someone comes to this site with their latest theory, about astrology or flaws in evolution or homeopathy or astronomy or physics, and when skeptics on a skeptical site remain skeptical, they resort to calling those who don't agree as closed-minded or worse.

I still don't claim to know exactly what FOREX is about, or what a pip is, or what a stopgap is, or how a high or low is tested, or what sort of 3-wave theory you go on about. That part of it does not interest me.

well then with respect, as THAT is what I want to discuss, perhaps we can leave your well-known objections to be proven live here on my high leverage account?

because I have all the evidence I need in the form of a long journey from perpetual loser through to full belief that this is possible, backed up by figures, testing and evidence.

In much the same way that you probably dismiss astrology, without having to learn the language and rationale behind it. You understand enough basic concepts to know that astrology, as presented, cannot work in the way it is claimed.

in this case, I would have to argue that you dont "understand enough basic concepts" given that you hadnt even heard of the largest daily traded volume market in the world, and which pushes all the other investment classes around like chips on backgammon board.

But, if you posted here to see what skeptics might have to say that might inform you as to the reasonableness of your claims, then please listen with an open mind, as some here have attempted to do with your claims.

But if YOUR mind is made up, as it appears to be, then at least for you this is probably a waste of time, made inevitable by the forum in which you chose to present it.

See, I could go onto a Forex board and get a lot more sense, but I was looking for a different kind of insight than that, but yes you are correct, this has not really produced anything other than standard cliche arguments.

and given the tendency to just not respond when the facts are overwhelming or continually tangentialize shown in other threads, this should have been somewhat predictable.

 

[kevsta]

I think that puts us on the same wavelength.

nearly, swap average for "minimum" and add "on his winning"

 

[kevsta]

edit. and on the "predict any chart thing" on about page 2 I asked people to suggest a random wierd currency pair I've never looked at (there are still lots) and I would predict it by trading it live here? ...........<tumbleweed>

edit. edit. how about this one? http://fxpro.ctrader.com/images/screens/TBf5n.png I give you my word I don't even know what the SEK part stands for, this is the first time I ever looked in here, but look at that pip range top right) 250 pips

from the bottom of that move to the top is 800+ pips in a couple of days, likin' the look of this one

and to the trained eye. nothing new here except that vast range available daily. "looking for", and taking only on seeing a suitable stoprun and BID ASK behaviour, at or above (top range) and below (bottom range) my lines.

I've said it before, the system intelligently FORCES us to buy low and sell high, from the very outside of the range, if possible.

Obviously, with wider ranges we have to widen stops, in this case to a ridiculous 80 or even 100 pips for safety, which means reducing position size by /4 (or 5) to keep overall trade risk constant.

but with a stop at 80pips aiming at target 1 of 600pips (7.5:1) or even at an average of say 6:1 risk reward PER PUSH, this could still pay out very nicely I think.

so does anyone want to play EURSEK marketmaker with me? and how about I do it on one of your own demo accounts too, so there's no doubt about multiple accounts? you just take theoretical ownership of the reverse of the results in there.

ie if its gone up, the amount its up by is your loss? if you don't think I'm pretty confident of this by now, that's not the question is it, its if you think my confidence is not warranted by the facts, please do try me.

 

[kevsta]

earlier in the thread, somebody mentioned gold as though my not mentioning it here was significant. if you know me, then you know most of my (relatively small amount of) money is in gold & silver (from 2009), so of course I'm aware what's happening. this, to be precise

now given that I may have actually (only time will tell) caught the very bottom of this, and also potentially caught the top of the S&P for a while, this is the gold/S&P pair trade I should have taken with Puppycow

on the 12 hour view its looking quite interesting, we are now in level 3 technically, although for the same reasons I said I wouldn't short silver last week (and was correct) I wouldnt dream of shorting it here, although the most likely probability is a rollover down to $1325-50 area and a run up from there, if its going to.

because given that the ultimate reaction to a violent move (down) tends to mirror the violence of the action, and the all time historical record short positions in place from the speculators, meanwhile the bullion banks have reversed out of their legacy shorts in the market and gone long, potentially leaving the spec herd with the bag.

Not a single one of these has an Oz of REAL gold to deliver, so they will have no choice but to cover their shorts, with BUY orders.

and the whole world is looking at (and shorting) the 200ma and fib lines here, thinking "this bubble is over", so it would not surprise me at all now to see it sag a little lower first and then violently burst out.

If instead it just gaps up at open and runs up higher, we can expect to see ignition to the short squeeze and once past $1425 will likely be at $1485 IN. AN. INSTANT.

"but, but, but, the bubble's burst..!! cover those ****** shorts!!!"

If they both (Gold & S&P) end up going back through their own respective 1500s with velocity, there's going to be a few broken hearts and a lot more silence to my mocking round here too, isnt there?

but still, this does look quite promising from here, mean reversion and all that

although this is my old style analysis creeping in here, have to be careful of that, as the cycles are far more reliable.