Why would a supernatural being's existence be contingent on natural causes? I can't derive that it's not, but I don't see it as a live possibility, sorry.
Why not? Isn't it a tad bit arbitrary to just
pound the property of "just so" into the being? And if you do that, what then would be wrong of pounding the property of "just so" into the FT parameters? What does such a god actually give you from an explanatory framework?
If there is no evidence for or against the existence of such a being, agnosticism would be the default position.
Remind people who haven't been exposed to your line of thinking that by "agnostic" you mean 50:50 odds, please.
Given this, let's carry this out to its logical conclusion. This would imply that 50% of all beings you can imagine for which you have no evidence for, or against, would
actually exist. First off, it's nowhere near obvious that this is true. Second, if it were, then what a crowded universe we must live in.
Agnositicm would not be the default position regarding the odds of the physical constants having the values they do. Those odds can be calculed, and physcists have done so.
Nobody knows the odds, because nobody knows what the distribution of possibilities are. Nevertheless, whatever those odds are, they could be interpreted as the odds that the universe is such that
we would be here. But they can only be interpreted that way if you take the laws of nature as a fixed given, in which case, to get God, you should go through the odds that the universe is such that God would be here.
Causally, no. Epistemically, yes.
This "agnostic" position you're proposing is poor epistemology. If the FT argument for God works, this implies that the process by which it works is a sound process. And if that's the case, then
anything with long odds could be explained by dreaming up
any entity that causes it--after all, entities for which I have no evidence one way or the other are 50% likely, right?
That would require argument or evidence.
The absurdity of the alternative is the suggestion that 50% of all entities we can dream up, for which we have no evidence for one way or the other, should exist.
I could say it's just as likely God's existence is not contingent on anythying physical. Back to agnosticism.
...
You only have to establish God as a live possibility for the FT argument to work (ignoring the multiverse issue).
Why should the multiverse issue be an issue at all? Would it be an issue if you simply hadn't thought about it?
If not, why would
thinking up the possibility of a multiverse change the odds? If so, then how are you sure there aren't a number of other things you haven't thought about?
Even if you think the odds of God existing are 1 in a thousand, you'll get confirmation, because the existence of life is "crushingly improbable".
Unless, of course, we're talking about this God, in which case we're supposed to apply special pleading and say that this probability should be 50% because we don't know either way.
So, what is your evidence that God likely does not exist?
Silly Malerin. You need evidence that things
do exist. And the more extraordinary the thing, the more extraordinary evidence you need.
Essentially, you don't have this evidence. You're trying to get God to be viable via this
other, unrelated argument--this notion that the default assumption should be 50% probability. And
that argument doesn't fly.