The "East Wind Rain" Message and FDR's Foreknowledge of Pearl Harbor

[Crossbow]

They didn't know the exact date, just that it would officially begin for the Japanese on Dec. 8th, Tokyo Time. (All Japanese forces operated on Tokyo Time, even when the Kido Butai was north of Hawaii.)

BTW, the code phrase "Niitaka Nobore 12-8" was intercepted before the war, but wasn't decoded until 1944, when a Japanese POW who had worked on the original orders informed us of the significance. "Climb Mt. Niitaka, December 8th" was the order to all Japanese units to execute their "D-Day" orders starting on that date.

Thanks much, but I was thinking of the 14th part of the decrypted diplomatic message which ordered the Japanese Ambassador to deliver a certain document to the US Secretary of State at 1:00 PM on 07 DEC 1941; and it was that specific date and time which tipped the USA into knowing that Japan would strike the USA at, or about, that time.

All of commanders of US forces were supposed to have been warned accordingly, but the Pearl Harbor commanders got the warning late.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Thanks much, but I was thinking of the 14th part of the decrypted diplomatic message which ordered the Japanese Ambassador to deliver a certain document to the US Secretary of State at 1:00 PM on 07 DEC 1941; and it was that specific date and time which tipped the USA into knowing that Japan would strike the USA at, or about, that time.

Teikoku Seifu no Taibei Tsucho Oboegaki was a strong indicator, but not definite. And nothing indicated that the US would be specifically attacked.

All of commanders of US forces were supposed to have been warned accordingly, but the Pearl Harbor commanders got the warning late.

They had received "war warning" messages days prior, they were supposed to be ready for anything. Gen. Short stood his fighter pilots down for the weekend.

 

[Rincewind]

I have a DVD entitled "Tora! Tora! Tora!"

On the face of it, it looks to be a reasonably accurate [obviously simplified] portrayal of the run up to the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Is it?

Thanks!

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I have a DVD entitled "Tora! Tora! Tora!"

On the face of it, it looks to be a reasonably accurate [obviously simplified] portrayal of the run up to the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Is it?

Thanks!

It's the most accurate video version available, I have no major complaints about it other than the egregious Yamamoto quote at the end.

If you want to get good coverage of the events, Gordon Prange's At Dawn We Slept is magisterial.

If you want to know way too much... (Vol. 40 is the place to start there.)

 

[Crossbow]

Teikoku Seifu no Taibei Tsucho Oboegaki was a strong indicator, but not definite. And nothing indicated that the US would be specifically attacked.

I agree that the 14 part message (I do not know if this is the same thing as the "Teikoku Seifu no Taibei Tsucho Oboegaki" item that you mention) did not say anything about specific military action against the USA. But keep in mind, that the 14 part message was a diplomatic message as opposed to a military message.

They had received "war warning" messages days prior, they were supposed to be ready for anything. Gen. Short stood his fighter pilots down for the weekend.

Again, I agree with you.

And note, that the USA lost the Japanese Fleet that it was keeping tabs on, so I do believe that there was a good consensus among the very senior US military leadership that Japan would attack the USA on 07 DEC 1941 at about 1:00 PM EST. due to the large body of intelligence which supported such a conclusion.

However, no one in the USA knew just where the attack would take place; but most expected the first strike to be the Phillipines.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I agree that the 14 part message (I do not know if this is the same thing as the "Teikoku Seifu no Taibei Tsucho Oboegaki" item that you mention) did not say anything about specific military action against the USA. But keep in mind, that the 14 part message was a diplomatic message as opposed to a military message.

Sorry, that's the Romaji for "The Final Communication to the United States from the Empire of Japan." "The 14 Part Message" got that name from the document coming in 14 telegrams.

Again, I agree with you.

And note, that the USA lost the Japanese Fleet that it was keeping tabs on, so I do believe that there was a good consensus among the very senior US military leadership that Japan would attack the USA on 07 DEC 1941 at about 1:00 PM EST. due to the large body of intelligence which supported such a conclusion.

However, no one in the USA knew just where the attack would take place; but most expected the first strike to be the Phillipines.

Actually, there was a question as to whether the US would be attacked in the first wave of attacks. The Japanese has a large group of transports heading south from Camh Ran Bay and Saigon, and we anticipated this would be used against Malaya. Other than that we had little or nothing to bias us toward or away from other targets.

 

[Rincewind]

It's the most accurate video version available, I have no major complaints about it other than the egregious Yamamoto quote at the end.

If you want to get good coverage of the events, Gordon Prange's At Dawn We Slept is magisterial.

If you want to know way too much... (Vol. 40 is the place to start there.)

Thanks for that - I agree about Yamamoto - he'd have needed to be clairvoyant to have been able to say that right after the attack.

I wasn't too impressed with the interlude on the DVD however...

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Thanks for that - I agree about Yamamoto - he'd have needed to be clairvoyant to have been able to say that right after the attack.

He made ONE comment about the timing of the delivery of the 14-part note, and then never mentioned it again. (See my addendum below on the timing issue.)

I wasn't too impressed with the interlude on the DVD however...

Not sure what that means...

The timing of the delivery of the 14-part message, 1/2 hour before the attack on Pearl Harbor, ensured that it would have no effect on the attack. For a warning to occur based on that message the following events would have had to happen:

(Note: No parties in Washington would have any idea that there was a deadline looming. FDR could have easily have waited until Monday to make a reply. Yamamoto would have been aware of this possibility.)

Japan delivers note on time.

Hull reads note.

Hull responds to Nomura and Kurusu.

They reply, etc.

Hull talks to FDR, explains note.

FDR correctly interprets this as a war warning.

FDR advises SecWar and SecNav to alert all forces.

SecWar and SecNav compose warning message.

Warning messages are handled through military channels, if available, to all commands.

Local commanders assimilate warning message and act properly.


On the other hand, if the US had acceded to every demand in the 14-part message:

Japan delivers note on time.

Hull reads note.

Hull responds to Nomura and Kurusu.

They reply, etc.

Hull talks to FDR, explains note.

FDR agrees to completely change US policy without consulting Congress.

FDR communicates this to Hull.

Hull explains things to Nomura and Kurusu.

They discuss any fuzzy details.

Nomura and Kurusu return to their embassy to contact Tokyo.

(Originally they were ordered to destroy all codes, but got permission to retain one low level code.)

Somehow they get the information to Tokyo.

Gaimudaijin receives message.

Foreign Minster interprets message correctly.

Foreign Minster goes to Prime Minister and explains message.

Prime Minister contacts SecWar and SecNav, who contact their forces to halt attack.

In both the above cases you can see that more than 1/2 hour was needed. So the timing issue is just a farce.

 

[Rincewind]

He made ONE comment about the timing of the delivery of the 14-part note, and then never mentioned it again. (See my addendum below on the timing issue.)

Not sure what that means...

Sorry - should have been clearer - the DVD contains an pointless interlude.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Sorry - should have been clearer - the DVD contains an pointless interlude.

Which one? The hot dog scene?

 

[Horatius]

Which one? The hot dog scene?

I think he means "intermission", you know, when you're supposed to go the lobby and buy popcorn. I recall it exists in the Netflix version as well.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I think he means "intermission", you know, when you're supposed to go the lobby and buy popcorn. I recall it exists in the Netflix version as well.

Oh. I found them useful when the movie was in the theaters. I went up to the projection booth and smoked one with my friend.

 

[dudalb]

It's the most accurate video version available, I have no major complaints about it other than the egregious Yamamoto quote at the end.

If you want to get good coverage of the events, Gordon Prange's At Dawn We Slept is magisterial.

If you want to know way too much... (Vol. 40 is the place to start there.)

Gordon Prange's original manuscript that became "At Dawn We Slept" was the major source for "Tora Tora Tora"...and Prange Gets Credit for it in the opening credits of the film.
Although the book was not published until 1981,Prange published a series of articles about Pearl Harbor in "Reader's Digest" in the mid 1960's which were derived from his manuscript. The screen rights for the articles were bought by Fox early in the production of Tora Tora Tora. I understand the screen righters were allowed access to the full manuscript.

 

[dudalb]

Which one? The hot dog scene?

The Intermission point in the road show run of Tora Tora Tora was where the camera pulls in for the close up of the calendar (with the dramtic Jerry Goldsmith music reaching a climax) saying Dec 7,1941 on the desk in DC.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Gordon Prange's original manuscript that became "At Dawn We Slept" was the major source for "Tora Tora Tora"...and Prange Gets Credit for it in the opening credits of the film.
Although the book was not published until 1981,Prange published a series of articles about Pearl Harbor in "Reader's Digest" in the mid 1960's which were derived from his manuscript. The screen rights for the articles were bought by Fox early in the production of Tora Tora Tora. I understand the screen righters were allowed access to the full manuscript.

Sounds right. I remember seeing the credits at the first showing and being relieved. I was ready for a HyFy Channel treatment.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

The Intermission point in the road show run of Tora Tora Tora was where the camera pulls in for the close up of the calendar saying Dec 7,1941 on the desk in DC.

Too much rust under the scalp to remember that now. I've had any number of copies of the DVD and VHS. I was allowed to do a Q&A session after the movie ran at a certain military school. That was fun.

 

[Rincewind]

I think he means "intermission", you know, when you're supposed to go the lobby and buy popcorn. I recall it exists in the Netflix version as well.

Yup you're right - guilty as charged.

 

[erwinl]

I think he means "intermission", you know, when you're supposed to go the lobby and buy popcorn. I recall it exists in the Netflix version as well.

So, my version of the DVD isn't the only one, which contained that?

How long did it last? I remember something like 20 minutes, but can be mistaken.
Why on earth did they put that on a dvd?

 

[Rincewind]

So, my version of the DVD isn't the only one, which contained that?

How long did it last? I remember something like 20 minutes, but can be mistaken.
Why on earth did they put that on a dvd?

In the interests of science, I've just checked my DVD.

The intermission is chapter 18, and ran for a couple of minutes - maybe you need to get your player checked?

And it does appear to be a totally pointless thing to have on a DVD!

 

[Rincewind]

After having checked the intermission, I have let the film continue.

You know what? The Military in Hawaii has made all the same mistakes again!

Unbelievable...