The case against Dr. Paul

[dash]

Guys, is there a name for the personality disorder or neurosis that causes a person to declare that all opinions that are not their own are completely invalid, only because they're not their own? Regardless of subject area?

Like if I had a hypothetical subject, who continually asserted that humanity didn't really know all that much about the world, while simultaneously excluding themselves from that assessment?

DW -- I just wish to thank you for helping to fill out the bottom end of the bell curve. You're doing a great job down there. Your masterful technique of misinterpreting people's statements really helps out, doesn't it? Gets you far in life, eh?

-Dave
ETA: DW, are you capable of perceiving that the following two statements are different:

1) One ought not to blindly follow the advice of experts.
2) One ought to blindly reject the advice of experts.

Do you agree with either of these statements? Do you disagree with either, or both?

I am saying #1. You seem to think (and respond as if) I'm saying #2.

Once again, welcome to the bottom end of the bell curve!

PPS You may go slink under your rock again, I'm pretty sure you won't respond, and if you do respond it won't be to refute anything, it'll just be your ego lashing out in self defense.

 

[KoihimeNakamura]

I dunno. It seemed to be a pretty accurate reading of your personality.

.. of course, you could just insult away!

 

[Chaos]

Let´s put it another way, dash.

What would, theoretically, have to happen in order to convince you that the experts on economics are right and you are wrong?

 

[dash]

Let´s put it another way, dash.

What would, theoretically, have to happen in order to convince you that the experts on economics are right and you are wrong?

Something outside the box would have to happen, something completely unrelated to economic matters.

Something such as the sudden appearance of an amazing new technology -- like a new energy source, or the discovery of Machine Intelligence. Perhaps even visitation by aliens.

Something that would justify following an economic policy that is absolutely without a doubt unsustainable forever, but which turns out to be the very best way of moving forward as a species in the short term.

Specifically if circumstances changed such that the goal was never to create a healthy, permanent economy that would last for a long, long time, but rather the goal was to keep things together just long enough for some game changing event to occur.

Meaning if the policies were known to be faulty on a scale of many years, but were acceptable on a scale of a few years, for some higher purpose.

I very much doubt this is the case however. I rather suspect we're in the midst of an inevitable massive collapse of a system doomed to failure from the start. What are the causes? I think the main one is that things are just getting too complicated. An economic structure has been built up that is just too fragile, and a tremor has come along that is causing it to fall apart.

I'm not actually worried though, I welcome the adjustment. Not because I know I'll profit by it, but because I think things will be better in the aftermath. I hope for a drasitcally scaled back federal government, for one thing. A general pullout of US military presence in the world -- an end of the US empire.

Now let's ask you a question -- what would it take in order for you to be convinced that I'm right?

Keep in mind there are experts (Peter Schiff is one) who agree with my assessment. In fact it's really the reverse -- I agree with theirs. My understanding mostly came from them. Their explanations fit exactly with my own observations.

-Dave

 

[Chaos]

*snip*

So in other words, nothing could possibly convince you that your economic views are wrong.

Now let's ask you a question -- what would it take in order for you to be convinced that I'm right?

*snip*

If your doom-and-gloom predictions came true, that would do it. On the other hand, since you have refused to tell us the timeframe within which to expect this, it is awfully hard to notice when they are overdue.

 

[dash]

So in other words, nothing could possibly convince you that your economic views are wrong.



If your doom-and-gloom predictions came true, that would do it. On the other hand, since you have refused to tell us the timeframe within which to expect this, it is awfully hard to notice when they are overdue.

Regarding the first part, your summary is incorrect. I explained the conditions. There is some chance there is an ulterior motive for all this.

Regarding the second part, there is no sudden transition from perfectly healthy to fatal collapse. It is a slow, steady decline. It's ongoing. Think of the frog in the pot of cold water, then the burner is turned on -- it's heating up so slowly the frog is unaware.

-Dave

 

[dudalb]

Big leaps and bounds in understanding happen when whole branches of existing theory are chopped off. Knowledge is not always a matter of tiny, incremental changes from what has gone before.

Now I understand why dash thinks that modern physics are all wrong,and that a guy who channels his theories of Physics from a Ancient Egyptian Sun God are right.

 

[Chaos]

Regarding the first part, your summary is incorrect. I explained the conditions. There is some chance there is an ulterior motive for all this.

Regarding the second part, there is no sudden transition from perfectly healthy to fatal collapse. It is a slow, steady decline. It's ongoing. Think of the frog in the pot of cold water, then the burner is turned on -- it's heating up so slowly the frog is unaware.

-Dave

********. You have been predicting disaster and sudden changes all the time. You can´t just turn around now and you were talking about slow gradual processes.

 

[dash]

********. You have been predicting disaster and sudden changes all the time. You can´t just turn around now and you were talking about slow gradual processes.

Elsewhere in this thread there was debate on the definition of "empire". One person said the USA is an empire (GeromeTheGnome?) and someone else said the USA didn't exactly match the dictionary definition of "empire".

Who is right? I knew exactly what Gerome was talking about in his use of the term. And I knew the argument about what didn't fit as regards the dictionary definition was pointless nitpicking.

Same situation right now. I claim a collapse is coming and ongoing, and you quibble over what I mean by "collapse".

Collapse = Something akin to the Great Depression, with a good chance of being worse. Something akin to the Fall of the Roman Empire. Something akin to the Fall of the British Empire. Timeframe? Greater than months, less than a decade.

Remember the joke about a guy falling off a building. As he passes the 15th floor on his way down, someone asks him, "How's it going?" The guy answers, "So far so good!"

-Dave

 

[Chaos]

*snip*
Remember the joke about a guy falling off a building. As he passes the 15th floor on his way down, someone asks him, "How's it going?" The guy answers, "So far so good!"

-Dave

To use your example... all your posts in this thread proclaimed loudly and clearly that you consider the US economy to be falling off the building. I then ask you: when is it going to hit the ground? And you reply, well, actually, it´s actually really just walking down the stairs, more or less.

All of which leaves a very phony aftertaste in the mouths of all those not infatuated with the same nutcase "experts" as you are.

 

[dash]

To use your example... all your posts in this thread proclaimed loudly and clearly that you consider the US economy to be falling off the building. I then ask you: when is it going to hit the ground? And you reply, well, actually, it´s actually really just walking down the stairs, more or less.

All of which leaves a very phony aftertaste in the mouths of all those not infatuated with the same nutcase "experts" as you are.

Are you hoping for immediate confirmation? Forget it -- these things take time. Certain things I take for granted -- erroneously, I guess. Rome didn't fall in a day.

It's faster than walking downstairs. It's more like falling off a building.

How does a Depression proceed? Well something like 75% of our economy is based on consumption. So when a company fails and lays off people, those people join the unemployed. They have less money to spend. So this reduced spending puts a strain on other companies. The companies that can't stay in business fail, and they lay people off. It's a snowball effect. Or avalanche. Look out below!

The middle class of the USA cannot preserve its wealth. It's going to get wiped out. There is absolutely no stopping it. Individuals who act fast can preserve (or even grow) their own wealth. But the act of doing this hastens the collapse. Pulling your wealth out of shaky companies and investments means more of them will fall, and fail.

It's all going to come crashing down, the question is how fast. While you're sitting on your hands debating the meaning of words, bombs are dropping. Do you really think this phony rally in the US stock market will last? That the massive Fed drop in the interest rates will actually solve things? I don't. It's a temporary measure.

There is massive incentive to hold things together until after the 2008 elections, then look out!

-Dave

 

[Suddenly]

I'm getting the same dull headache reading Dash's posts as I do reading North Korean news releases. There is something about socio-economic nonsense that saps the soul.

The whole thing reminds me of Delillo's White Noise when the main character is exposed to "The Airborne Toxic Event" and after being totally freaked about being told it is fatal is given a time frame for death that would put him in his late 80s.

 

[dash]

I'm getting the same dull headache reading Dash's posts as I do reading North Korean news releases. There is something about socio-economic nonsense that saps the soul.

The whole thing reminds me of Delillo's White Noise when the main character is exposed to "The Airborne Toxic Event" and after being totally freaked about being told it is fatal is given a time frame for death that would put him in his late 80s.

Here is a report from Jim Willie CB:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/apr082008.html

# unlike Japan, USEconomy cannot tolerate a declining USDollar

# unlike Japan, USEconomy permits bankruptcies as a regular course of business

# unlike Japan, USEconomy depends upon consumption & spending

# unlike Japan, much US debt is owned by foreigners, with a trade gap widening

# unlike Japan, US Structured Finance has created a megalith monster

# unlike Japan, US Federal Reserve is a monetization machine on steroids

# unlike Japan, US institutions harbor widespread corruption

# unlike Japan, US maintains a pervasive interventionist attitude

The United States is gradually entering a Liquidity Trap bearing strong resemblance to the one that had ensnared Japan’s economy during most of the 1990 decade. Denials that the US compares badly seem patriotic at best, and obtuse at worse. The trap of low interest rates is now very evident inside the USA. It is not characterized by low liquidity, but rather high liquidity. Official monetization initiatives are kept secret, directed increasingly toward Wall Street cronies, while the public is denied loans under harsher terms. The current liquidity trap is much worse than such a minimal label describes. The US banking system is dysfunctional, suffering seizures and lockups, plagued by collateral distrust, reporting gigantic losses not seen since the Great Depression. Banking and economic leaders would be thrilled to ONLY have a liquidity trap problem.

I think your headache is caused because you've buried your head in the sand too long... You and others really ought to get over the myth that this is all stuff I'm just making up...

Do you know they're suffering massive rice shortages over in the Philippines? China's got food shortages as well. There is also some new virus or disease affecting international wheat harvests. Ok, so none of that is occuring inside the US. But wait -- when other people run out of food, they start buying internationally. So US producers will sell to the highest bidder. Meaning to compete, we've got to pay more for food produced right here in the USA. Get ready for even higher food prices!

-Dave

 

[IchabodPlain]

Elsewhere in this thread there was debate on the definition of "empire". One person said the USA is an empire (GeromeTheGnome?) and someone else said the USA didn't exactly match the dictionary definition of "empire".

Who is right? I knew exactly what Gerome was talking about in his use of the term. And I knew the argument about what didn't fit as regards the dictionary definition was pointless nitpicking.

Jerome was dancing his usual semantic nonsense, it's called the Redefinition fallacy. Jerome stripped away qualities specific of empires so he could include the US as an empire.

Thus it was Jerome doing the nitpicking, not the other way around.

If you make a claim, the onus is on you do not use misleading/false terms to do so. For instance, if I say to work at a job is to be exploited, see how it's inumbent upon me to use the word exploitation correctly, regardless of intention?

 

[volatile]

Are you hoping for immediate confirmation? Forget it -- these things take time. Certain things I take for granted -- erroneously, I guess. Rome didn't fall in a day.

So it'll either happen soon, sometime in the future, or never?

You remind me of people who pray to milk jugs:

 

[Suddenly]

Here is a report from Jim Willie CB:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/apr082008.html



I think your headache is caused because you've buried your head in the sand too long... You and others really ought to get over the myth that this is all stuff I'm just making up...

Economies have cycles. An open ended prediction of a downturn is like a fortune cookie that reads: "You will soon be finished with dinner."

Do you know they're suffering massive rice shortages over in the Philippines? China's got food shortages as well. There is also some new virus or disease affecting international wheat harvests. Ok, so none of that is occuring inside the US. But wait -- when other people run out of food, they start buying internationally. So US producers will sell to the highest bidder. Meaning to compete, we've got to pay more for food produced right here in the USA. Get ready for even higher food prices!

-Dave

Food is so cheap that when you buy it you are paying for transportation and packaging. You can triple the actual price of food and it won't come anywhere near tripling the overall price. Since transportation costs are going up, it becomes cheaper for Americans to buy domestic. Etc.

 

[TriskettheKid]

Can someone please point out the difference between dash's prediction of doom for the Economy and the crazy guy outside the T stop who proclaims that the world is going to end soon?

It seems that their methods of prediction are strikingly similar. Namely, something bad is going to happen, and they can see it happening, but they can't tell anyone else a timeline for when it's going to happen.

 

[dudalb]

The Crazy Guy Outside the T shop is not planning to get rich off the Total Collpase of the US Economy the way dash is.
If you think dash on economics is fun, wait until you hear him on physics.

 

[Mahatma Kane Jeeves]

Compare and contrast with Lyndon LaRouche.

During the Summer of 1997, I announced that we must expect the world to actually enter that terminal phase of the world financial crisis not later than mid-October of that year. It happened exactly as I warned it would. Now, the crucial financial, monetary, and hard-commodity-trade figures, for the period April 1998 to the present date, show, that the world's financial system, in its present form, will reach an end-point, of either a drop into a world depression, or a hyperinflationary blow-out, during as early as the eight or so weeks ahead. [ December 18, 1998 ]

Today's world as a whole has entered the terminal phase of what threatens to be not a mere world depression, but what has been classed in relevant earlier times as a "new dark age," such as that in Europe during the middle to late Fourteenth Century. Exactly when the breakdown of the present world society would occur, is, as usual, uncertain, except to say that we must assume that the threatened collapse, if it occurs, must be expected soon, or even sooner than that. [ May 11, 2007 ]

Did you get that? It will happen soon, or even sooner than that!

 

[joobie]

there's been a larouche guy outside the local bus terminal for the last 20 years or so handing out literature. he's usually talking to another gentleman who wears a tinfoil helmet with earphones and a jacket that says JESUS WAS WHITE on the back.