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The Boris Johnson ousting prediction thread

Lothian said:
When he was elected the spin was that while Johnson could be a bit of a jolly chap making japes he had an incredible skill for surrounding himself with fantastic talented people. Wonder why that narrative was dropped.
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Because even BlowJob couldn't bring himself to lie that Raaaaaaab is anything other than an idiot, that Hancock can put his own pants on or that Liz Truss can spell "cheese", not to mention that Anne-Marie Trevelyan has any discernible skills...

They are all there to make him look less bad by dint of being absolutely useless.
 
54 letters to the head of the Con 1922 committee are required to trigger a leadership vote. There are strong rumours that this number is being approached, with a meeting today of worried new (elected in 2019) MPs -

"Sources say about a dozen 2019ers met in one Tory MP’s office this afternoon to talk about submitting letters of no confidence - some at different stages than others but am
told “wheels are in motion”."

If it comes to it, I seriously doubt whether Johnson would suffer the possible humiliation of losing such an election (as I believe he would).
 
Sky did the “interview” with the coward, by a journalist who is usually very Tory leaning, as is her paymaster’s want. Given she went tough I do wonder if he has lost Murdoch?
 
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GlennB said:
…snip…

If it comes to it, I seriously doubt whether Johnson would suffer the possible humiliation of losing such an election (as I believe he would).
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You can’t humiliate him, he was too well “educated” in self-belief.
 
GlennB said:
54 letters to the head of the Con 1922 committee are required to trigger a leadership vote. There are strong rumours that this number is being approached, with a meeting today of worried new (elected in 2019) MPs -

"Sources say about a dozen 2019ers met in one Tory MP’s office this afternoon to talk about submitting letters of no confidence - some at different stages than others but am
told “wheels are in motion”."

If it comes to it, I seriously doubt whether Johnson would suffer the possible humiliation of losing such an election (as I believe he would).
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It is tricky in that the more that is done to raise the profile of Big Dog the less there is in terms of policy and money for New Dog to represent a change of direction.


The Tories are best doing nothing, seeing how the public react to the Sue Gray's report and only then back him or ditch him.

That said I can't see a version of the report that will land well with the public.
He was either aware and approving of the rule breaking or the report will be seen as a fabricated cover up.
 
GlennB said:
The date of 'ousting' includes plain resignation or the announcement of the start of Tory voting for his successor. Maybe keep your predictions to a half of a single month, though it's more a bit of fun (if anything in his administration can be described as 'fun') than an actual competition*

'Not this year' is a valid entry.

I'll kick off with first half of March '22

*The worst predictor will switch their avatar to 'Mr Blobby' for 2 weeks. I will provide a very nice .jpeg of Blobby :D
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There's Blobby already, installed when the 6 Nations rugby pool started :)
 
Daily Mail readers really do inhabit a different world. Today's headline:

Today the Cabinet will agree to axe Plan B curbs. Britain is basking in a post-Covid jobs miracle. But panicking Red Wall Tory MPs are turning on man who got them elected.

EXPOSED: THE 'PORK PIE' PLOT TO TOPPLE PM
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:confused:
 
The Don said:
Daily Mail readers really do inhabit a different world. Today's headline:



:confused:
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Employment went up during retail's busiest season... that's never happened before... I'm sure all those workers will still be on the payroll come end of January....
 
Looks like my Eeyore-ish prediction is becoming more likely every day :(

The UK electorate don't seem to be able to maintain any kind of outrage against Boris Johnson for any period of time so if he can weather the first few news cycles he can be sure that the Daily Mail will come to his defence and the craven cowards in the Conservative Party will simply back down.

As soon as Covid restrictions are lifted, Boris Johnson and the Conservatives' popularity will bounce back up - especially if they can managed to pick a fight with the EU to cover up the continuing and cumulative effects of Brexit.

Conservative MPs are starting to "step back" and think twice about a leadership challenge against Boris Johnson, a minister has said.

Conor Burns - a minister and long-term ally of the PM - said colleagues were now choosing to wait for the report into the No 10 lockdown parties.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60062913

The "wait and see" approach to Sue Grey's report indicates to me that they're confident that the remit will have been sufficiently narrow that a result of "Boris Johnson may not have done anything illegal" will be seen as a complete vindication.

It'll also be another clear indication that whatever you've done, stay put and the heat will go out of any opposition in a few days.
 
My recent approach of making the most depressing prediction I can seems to be yielding results. :(
 
He could still survive.

The big problem is finding a successor. The longer it goes on the less chance of a poll recovery. Do you want to be the first Tory to lose an election in over a decade?

It would need an incredibly ambitious idiot to step in and take over a toxic brand. Where are you going to find someone like that in the Tory Par.......Oh... ignore me. carry on.
 
Lothian said:
He could still survive.

The big problem is finding a successor. The longer it goes on the less chance of a poll recovery.
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I disagree. I think that the longer that Boris Johnson can stay in post, the greater the chance that some distraction or other will come along and the British public will forget all about "Partygate", or forget that they are angry about "Partygate".

In a few months time after all the flag-waving (and an extra public holiday) over the queen's 70th jubilee, Covid being on the back foot over the summer (only to break out again in the autumn), people having their summer holidays, he'll be "good old BoJo" again and the Conservatives will rebound in the polls.

The British public will also suddenly remember that Kier Starmer is worthy but dull - and thanks to the Mail, Telegraph and Express will believe that, if anything, Starmer broke the rules more often, and more seriously, than Boris Johnson.

Lothian said:
Do you want to be the first Tory to lose an election in over a decade?
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I doubt it, I think in a few months time the polls will be back to usual. :(

Lothian said:
It would need an incredibly ambitious idiot to step in and take over a toxic brand. Where are you going to find someone like that in the Tory Par.......Oh... ignore me. carry on.
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Yes, a target rich environment.
 
The Don said:
I disagree. I think that the longer that Boris Johnson can stay in post, the greater the chance that some distraction or other will come along and the British public will forget all about "Partygate", or forget that they are angry about "Partygate".

In a few months time after all the flag-waving (and an extra public holiday) over the queen's 70th jubilee, Covid being on the back foot over the summer (only to break out again in the autumn), people having their summer holidays, he'll be "good old BoJo" again and the Conservatives will rebound in the polls.

The British public will also suddenly remember that Kier Starmer is worthy but dull - and thanks to the Mail, Telegraph and Express will believe that, if anything, Starmer broke the rules more often, and more seriously, than Boris Johnson.



I doubt it, I think in a few months time the polls will be back to usual. :(



Yes, a target rich environment.
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Sad, but most likely true.

The "But I just like him!" brigade will laugh at a weak gag or 2 and that will be it...
 
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