Cont: The Biden Presidency (3)

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theprestige said:
GDP is down. Productivity, literally, is down. So it kinda sounds like businesses are struggling to attract and retain a labor force sufficient to actually bring their productivity back up. This may be the first recession powered by apathy in the labor force.
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Unemployment was at 3.5 percent for July. The U.S. created 372,000 jobs in June. It doesn't look like a lot of people are sitting it out.
 
The state of the IRS:
Congress and the White House, when led by Republicans, have starved the IRS of resources for so long, experts say, that even with an influx of $80 billion in new funding, the agency’s ability to transform itself is far from assured.

Some of its main computers still run on programming language that dates to the 1960s, called COBOL, the IRS has repeatedly told policymakers. The program is so old that college computer science courses rarely teach it anymore, forcing the IRS to spend heavily on training new hires in antiquated systems.

The IRS has 60 discrete case management systems that do not communicate with one another.

Its staffing levels have dropped by 17 percent since 2010, including a 30 percent decline in enforcement employees, because its budget has flatlined: Adjusted for inflation, its annual appropriation from Congress is down 12 percent over the same span, at $12.6 billion this year.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/08/06/inflation-reduction-act-irs/

It's truly perplexing -- yet not surprising -- that "law 'n' order" Repubs are so opposed to enforcing the tax code.
 
The IRA's apparently been passed. I'm cautiously optimistic about that. Not perfect, but much, much better than nothing.

Still, it may be worth pointing out that Republicans pointedly acted to keep insulin prices high.
 
Bob001 said:
Unemployment was at 3.5 percent for July. The U.S. created 372,000 jobs in June. It doesn't look like a lot of people are sitting it out.
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A lot of these people were people that also got a new job, two months ago, and will probably be switching to another new job two months from now,... more like a game of Labor musical chairs than actual "growing" employment. one low-paying short-term job for another low-paying, short-term job carousel does not a roaring economy make.
 
Trakar said:
A lot of these people were people that also got a new job, two months ago, and will probably be switching to another new job two months from now,... more like a game of Labor musical chairs than actual "growing" employment. one low-paying short-term job for another low-paying, short-term job carousel does not a roaring economy make.
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And your evidence of this is? Oh....you don't have any? It's just a guess pulled out of your nether region aka an "assfact""
 
Didn't Biden just have a relapse of Covid? He was still coughing at his speech yesterday. Watching that signing ceremony today, with no one wearing masks and particularly, him putting his face very close to that little girl's, made me fairly uncomfortable.
 
alfaniner said:
Didn't Biden just have a relapse of Covid? He was still coughing at his speech yesterday. Watching that signing ceremony today, with no one wearing masks and particularly, him putting his face very close to that little girl's, made me fairly uncomfortable.
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He tested negative again. Having a residual cough does not mean you are still contagious. Coughs can linger for a long time past the contagious period.
 
Stacyhs said:
And your evidence of this is? Oh....you don't have any? It's just a guess pulled out of your nether region aka an "assfact""
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LOL, sounds like something you are much more familiar with than I am, so I bow to your superior experience.

My perspective, however comes from (among other sources) an analysis of NBER reports, in particular the CES and CPS survey analysis reports of the last several months (specifically the reports from May through July).

The CES reports list out the raw jobs data (an unfortunate issue being that they don't distinguish between part-time and full-time) so the term "Jobs created" includes all new jobs, part-time, full-time, temporary, etc.

One of the problems of the CES is that it tends to focus more upon the largest employers who religiously report their hiring and firing data, while missing a lot of the median size and small business ventures whose reporting is less rigorous and frequently missing or inaccurate. What we do get from the CES is a total Jobs creation number and an unemployment (Jobs destruction) number from month to month. Popular economic press releases seek to point to the creation of 500+k "new Jobs" as a employment boom, but unfortunately what a deeper look (including data from the CPS tables) reveals, is that there was actually a net loss of full-time, well paying jobs of over 220k jobs from May through July, and the creation of over 800k part-time jobs. Given that the total hours worked did not substantively change from May to July, the only clear and simple explanation is that most of the trade off was actually full-time employees being converted to part-time employees. This is confirmed by other CPS tables which indicate that Full-time employment did not raise at all May to July, it dropped by a little over 220k fewer full- time employees May to July. Thus full time employment declined by some 200+k jobs May through July, and part-time jobs increased 800k (same hours worked, lower pay). Furthermore, looking deeper through the CPS tables (A-9 "Multiple Job Holders") we see this confirmed with a significant rise in multiple job holders over the last year or so, and dramatically so, over the second quarter of 2022.
 
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theprestige said:
GDP is down. Productivity, literally, is down. So it kinda sounds like businesses are struggling to attract and retain a labor force sufficient to actually bring their productivity back up. This may be the first recession powered by apathy in the labor force.
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Why do you attribute this to apathy?
 
Gas prices have fallen below $4 a gallon and have steadily declined for going on two months, inflation has slowed, job numbers are way up, unemployment tied a 50 yr. low, and the IRA passed. Biden has had a good week and his poll numbers have risen to 40%. Trump's low was 33%.
 
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Stacyhs said:
Gas prices have fallen below $4 a gallon and have steadily declined for going on two months, inflation has slowed, job numbers are way up, unemployment tied a 50 yr. low, and the IRA passed. Biden has had a good week and his poll numbers have risen to 40%. Trump's low was 33%.
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Not to mention that at the same time Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot.
 
ZiprHead said:
Not to mention that at the same time Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot.
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They do love their guns! :p

Speaking of which, my sister's nephew-in-law (a Trumper) literally shot off part of his foot with his shotgun that he kept under his truck seat. Can it get any more stereotypical?
 
Stacyhs said:
They do love their guns! :p

Speaking of which, my sister's nephew-in-law (a Trumper) literally shot off part of his foot with his shotgun that he kept under his truck seat. Can it get any more stereotypical?
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Stupid people with guns aren't made smarter by carrying a gun, just more dangerous to themselves and anyone they are around. Guns aren't a big problem, keeping guns out of the hands of criminals, the arrogantly ignorant, and the emotionally unstable, is a national problem.
 
Trakar said:
Stupid people with guns aren't made smarter by carrying a gun, just more dangerous to themselves and anyone they are around. Guns aren't a big problem, keeping guns out of the hands of criminals, the arrogantly ignorant, and the emotionally unstable, is a national problem.
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On that note, here's a twitter thread that compiles a few people who really, really shouldn't be allowed to have guns. Introduction -

The right is prepping for civil war. I’d report them all to the @FBI, but I literally don’t have time to sit report the hundreds of videos like this I’m seeing on my alt tiktok. (And they didn’t check Twitter.) so here’s a ��
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And, to poke at one of the current trends -

They literally think the IRS is coming for their guns
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Friggin' traitors. I'm tempted to also say gullible, but that's too likely to be naive, given the very real chance that they're just lying to try to advance agendas like not wanting to pay taxes, period.
 
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