KatieG
Rootin' Tootin' Raspberry
I was asking about phones because shutting down the internet won't keep folks with cell phones from accessing web sites. I'd be very concerned if I had no way to contact the outside world.
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Thailand Military Coup (Again)
- Thread starter andyandy
- Start date
I was asking about phones because shutting down the internet won't keep folks with cell phones from accessing web sites. I'd be very concerned if I had no way to contact the outside world.
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
Well, since they've started releasing the TV stations back to the owners - all they have to do is commit to broadcasting any government announcements live - I assume the radio stations are going to be getting the same treatment, but I'll find out later when I get in the car (I have no idea how to even turn on a radio at home - only listen in the car - because the radio here cannot be counted on to provide news or emergency information even during typhoons or floods.... radio is entertainment for the most part). So I don't think they're going near the ISPs and phone companies.
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
I have to stand corrected.... they actually dissolved the upper house, too. They'd said the Senate and the Judiciary and quasi-judiciary (Anti-Corruption Commision, Electoral Commission, etc...) would stay in place. Now it appears that it's only the old guard commissions (and they are conservative and yellow shirt in make-up) that are in place, but they might go to.
And there's resistance. The head of Pheu Thai Party(PTP - the red shirts) has posted on Facebook that he's not heeding their summons and will not turn himself in to attend "a meeting with a group of rebels". He's posted that he's safe in the Northeast. This is a direct challenge to the army to go in and get him, I think. And it won't end well if they do.
Saturday and Sunday are the rounding up of the third and fourth estates days. They're calling in op ed writers, journalists and scholars! The big brother attitude is playing well with the masses, and most of the people summoned have sheepishly gone in. But those who are out of their reach are beginning to show some opposition. They requested a Japanese based Thai commentator to come in and he's said he flat out will not return to Thailand to report.
It's interesting to note, also, that while the elected PM, Yingluck Shinawatra, is still "resting" with the army, the most rabid of the coalition members, the sucker who led the shutdown of the airport in the Yellow Shirt riots, was allowed to go home.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/411554/coup-makers-widen-net
And there's resistance. The head of Pheu Thai Party(PTP - the red shirts) has posted on Facebook that he's not heeding their summons and will not turn himself in to attend "a meeting with a group of rebels". He's posted that he's safe in the Northeast. This is a direct challenge to the army to go in and get him, I think. And it won't end well if they do.
Saturday and Sunday are the rounding up of the third and fourth estates days. They're calling in op ed writers, journalists and scholars! The big brother attitude is playing well with the masses, and most of the people summoned have sheepishly gone in. But those who are out of their reach are beginning to show some opposition. They requested a Japanese based Thai commentator to come in and he's said he flat out will not return to Thailand to report.
It's interesting to note, also, that while the elected PM, Yingluck Shinawatra, is still "resting" with the army, the most rabid of the coalition members, the sucker who led the shutdown of the airport in the Yellow Shirt riots, was allowed to go home.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/411554/coup-makers-widen-net
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Francesca R
Girl
I didn't know that . . .
Regarding lack of interest the same approximately applies to the markets (though apparently Thai leaders' squabbling managed to engineer a slight economic recession). It might sound insensitive of course--but when one reads stories that include variations of: "the turmoil since November 2013 has resulted so far in the deaths of 24 [or what the right number is]", then the 24 does slightly jump out as a low number.
I tend to view these situations in a game theoretical context. The two political "players", which are for want of a better term the yellow-shirts and the red-shirts, have directly opposite objectives and no particular alignment of objectives. They want to rid Thailand of each other's political influence overwhelmingly, and have little apparent desire for accommodation of each other in the interest of, well, Thailand moving forwards. And their machinations have combined to mutually strip themselves and each other of sufficient bargaining power / legitimacy that the military establishment is left as the only powerful player. Lese-majeste doesn't exactly help stop this happen.
(I am not entirely clear on the extent to which the army and the yellow-shirts overlap / whether they are a de-facto coalition, or what)
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Francesca R
Girl
The supreme court dismissed the government earlier. It was sort-of "caretaking" for itself since there was no impartial technocrat to do this (it is the only party that ever wins elections, when Thailand has elections).
The role of ousted government serving as caretaker government was apparently a little bit much, and better to have soldiers and generals doing it.
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
You've pretty much got the same views of the situation I do, Francesca. They are at loggerheads and neither wants to nor is able to compromise. They both want the other people out... completely out... totally out... forever out. When you get that sort of standoff, you either have a lot of crow-eating and compromising to be done by both sides or you wind up in a civil war.
And I think there's little doubt that the military is in with the royalists/loyalists - the Yellow Shirts. Taksin's populism disrupted those folks' little worlds, including the military, as he was trying to create a new power structure in direct competition with the old. He and his party have few friends in the upper echelons of the military.
The thing they have going in their favor is that thus far, it was everybody else doing the shooting and the military has done none. They actually appear sincere about stopping the violence.
Oh, and I don't get CNN on my cable, so not sure if they're still blacked out, but I don't see why they would be. Al Jazeera and Fox and DW are all back on the air, plus two Russian stations, AsiaNewsNetwork, Bloomberg, and some funky EuroNews station (I think that's what they call it... like EuropSports). And a couple of them were having lengthy and rather open discussions of the politics here. So if they intended a blackout to stem criticism, they've essentially shot themselves in the foot. Again, as much as I hate to, I have to give them the benefit of the doubt on this.
And I think there's little doubt that the military is in with the royalists/loyalists - the Yellow Shirts. Taksin's populism disrupted those folks' little worlds, including the military, as he was trying to create a new power structure in direct competition with the old. He and his party have few friends in the upper echelons of the military.
The thing they have going in their favor is that thus far, it was everybody else doing the shooting and the military has done none. They actually appear sincere about stopping the violence.
Oh, and I don't get CNN on my cable, so not sure if they're still blacked out, but I don't see why they would be. Al Jazeera and Fox and DW are all back on the air, plus two Russian stations, AsiaNewsNetwork, Bloomberg, and some funky EuroNews station (I think that's what they call it... like EuropSports). And a couple of them were having lengthy and rather open discussions of the politics here. So if they intended a blackout to stem criticism, they've essentially shot themselves in the foot. Again, as much as I hate to, I have to give them the benefit of the doubt on this.
Delvo
Дэлво Δε&#
If people there aren't interested, it sounds like they're sure that whoever finally achieves real dominance won't then start rounding up people with accusations that they were connected in some way with the defeated enemy. What gives them this assurance?
Foolmewunz
Grammar Resistance Leader, TLA Dictator
Well, that's the thing... there is no such assurance. Any time the PTP (Pheu Thai Party - Red Shirts) win, there's a hue and cry to prosecute the ministers in the previous government, like Suthep, who were responsible for real or perceived offenses and injustices. In the case of Suthep, my friends on the left used to call him The Minister In Charge of Shooting Red Shirt Demonstrators, as that was his ministry in charge of "order" when the DP was handed the government by the previous military coup.
ETA: (unfinished thought from above) And when the junta appoints a fairly conservative government, we'll probably see the same patterns as previously. They'll govern with no opposition and re-trench the favoritism that they've enjoyed for generations and the lose the next election, yet again. And when the populists are back in power, the old guard will sit back and wait for the inevitable scandal (it's Thailand... they're all corrupt) and rely on their buddies in the courts and commissions to censure and ultimately toss out the red shirts again. It's already happened several times and until they reform the process of naming people to these courts and commissions, it will continue. No one seems to comment on the fact that the charges that brought down the current government were beyond dubious. What they amounted to was "people warned Yingluck that the rice scheme would lead to corruption and she didn't listen". This is enough to toss out a P.M. and her cabinet? Only in Thailand with stacked courts. The cart is always before the horse in Thailand. The cart in this case was "get the Shinawatras out of office" and the horse came later... "Oooh, here's a serious sounding charge; let's use it to throw them out."
One hopes that the overwhelming majority of numbers will bring the old guard to their senses. In the 80s when I was first visiting South Africa, many white hard liners said they were going to fight to the last bullet and last drop of blood to hold onto "their" country. There are still some of those people in SAF, but the reality was that rhetoric is fine, but dead is dead and they really didn't want to be dead. And their children grew up thinking differently, fortunately. The DP and what I call the "old guard" here have to come to the same reality. If they try to work with the populists and find common ground that they can agree on, and work towards pulling the emerging middle class from the formerly agrarian northeast and north into a centrist position, they could form a new middle ground, assuring the survival of both sides. But old ways die hard. It's still us against them. What they really need is us against them against those against the others. The Red Shirts are not all Maoist-Stalinist, although there are a couple of nutbars in there who are. And the Yellow Shirts are not all putschists, even though the noisemakers since December have been.
There is a huge moderate "silent majority", but no one has the 'nads to cross their own party lines to try to mobilize that base.
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Swammerdami
Student
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2014
- Messages
- 43
I've lived in rural Central Thailand for 20 years and, from time to time, engage rural Thais (lower- and middle-class) in political discussion. Before that I worked at a Thai University and for a Bangkok computer company. From my vantage, framing Thai politics as "populists" versus "elites" is over-simplified to the point of falsity.
Unfortunately, any brief comments I might make will also be over-simplified. Rather than making a detailed argument, I'll just make a few terse claims.
Corruption is endemic in Thailand and takes many forms, from low-level "greasing" to gigantic frauds at the highest levels. I've noticed much improvement during my years here. But Thaksin has used his connections (in the 1990s) or direct government control (in the 2000's) to steal huge sums from the Treasury. Is it a "populist" program to line one's pocket with funds intended for rural development? Many powerful Thai politicians are corrupt, but some seem much worse than others. The most blatantly corrupt, the Provincial Mafia chiefs, are mostly allied with Thaksin's coalition.
Many political parties in Thailand are not about "ideological platforms" but about geography. The "party platform" is, in effect, "We want to divert national resources to businesses and provinces controlled by Godfather So_and_so."
The first military coup I lived through was in 1991, against a government called the "Buffet government" -- Ministers wandered about nibbling on whatever looked good. A later coup was against a "Fast Food government." Horrid as it sounds to most Westerners, there's a case that the Army intervention plays a useful check-balance role to guard against excesses of these "democratically elected" governments.
It is true that Thaksin and his allies win elections. But many voters are naive. Moreover, where I live voters are paid by candidates in almost every election, usually $10 or more, a day's wages. Think of what the elected candidate must have to do to recover that spending! Money politics doesn't stop there; money changes hands between politicians; and major concessions are made to coalition partners.
Where I live, many people are naive or very close-mouthed about politics. Lower-income women who supported Thaksin most frequently praise not his populist programs (30-baht, million-baht) but his War on Drugs. Methamphetamine was a huge problem here in the 1990's. But if you read details about Thaksin's War on Drugs, e.g. the "extrajudicial executions," you may withhold praise.
Among rural middle-class, it is the politically connected who tend to support the red-shirt side. Teachers and university students often oppose Thaksin. As I say, Thais are close-mouthed about politics so it's hard for me to "take a survey", but recently I asked a University student what she and her friends thought about the coup. She was silent, but her father (an important local merchant, though hardly "elite") interrupted to loudly declaim that the cycle of corruption needed to be broken before democratic elections could be held.
In the past Thai politics seemed farcical, with thugs playing off against each other. But the wholesale corruption and incompetence of Thaksin and his sister is something new. And they've armed and financed a significant private army, the red-shirt terrorists. Violence may be a real threat.
The Thais coined a new word: รัฐประหารแบบนุ่มนวล -- 'delicate coup d'état.' Give the Generals credit for a slow-motion coup that avoided immediate violence.
The Thais are used to coups and -- silly as it will sound to many Westerners -- often appreciate Army intervention as playing a check-and-balance role.
(This is only my 2nd post at this forum. I'm afraid I'll need to don an asbestos suit.
)
Unfortunately, any brief comments I might make will also be over-simplified. Rather than making a detailed argument, I'll just make a few terse claims.
Corruption is endemic in Thailand and takes many forms, from low-level "greasing" to gigantic frauds at the highest levels. I've noticed much improvement during my years here. But Thaksin has used his connections (in the 1990s) or direct government control (in the 2000's) to steal huge sums from the Treasury. Is it a "populist" program to line one's pocket with funds intended for rural development? Many powerful Thai politicians are corrupt, but some seem much worse than others. The most blatantly corrupt, the Provincial Mafia chiefs, are mostly allied with Thaksin's coalition.
Many political parties in Thailand are not about "ideological platforms" but about geography. The "party platform" is, in effect, "We want to divert national resources to businesses and provinces controlled by Godfather So_and_so."
The first military coup I lived through was in 1991, against a government called the "Buffet government" -- Ministers wandered about nibbling on whatever looked good. A later coup was against a "Fast Food government." Horrid as it sounds to most Westerners, there's a case that the Army intervention plays a useful check-balance role to guard against excesses of these "democratically elected" governments.
It is true that Thaksin and his allies win elections. But many voters are naive. Moreover, where I live voters are paid by candidates in almost every election, usually $10 or more, a day's wages. Think of what the elected candidate must have to do to recover that spending! Money politics doesn't stop there; money changes hands between politicians; and major concessions are made to coalition partners.
Where I live, many people are naive or very close-mouthed about politics. Lower-income women who supported Thaksin most frequently praise not his populist programs (30-baht, million-baht) but his War on Drugs. Methamphetamine was a huge problem here in the 1990's. But if you read details about Thaksin's War on Drugs, e.g. the "extrajudicial executions," you may withhold praise.
Among rural middle-class, it is the politically connected who tend to support the red-shirt side. Teachers and university students often oppose Thaksin. As I say, Thais are close-mouthed about politics so it's hard for me to "take a survey", but recently I asked a University student what she and her friends thought about the coup. She was silent, but her father (an important local merchant, though hardly "elite") interrupted to loudly declaim that the cycle of corruption needed to be broken before democratic elections could be held.
In the past Thai politics seemed farcical, with thugs playing off against each other. But the wholesale corruption and incompetence of Thaksin and his sister is something new. And they've armed and financed a significant private army, the red-shirt terrorists. Violence may be a real threat.
The Thais coined a new word: รัฐประหารแบบนุ่มนวล -- 'delicate coup d'état.' Give the Generals credit for a slow-motion coup that avoided immediate violence.
The Thais are used to coups and -- silly as it will sound to many Westerners -- often appreciate Army intervention as playing a check-and-balance role.
(This is only my 2nd post at this forum. I'm afraid I'll need to don an asbestos suit.
)Welcome to the forum. It's always nice to hear from someone "on the ground."
Damien Evans
Up The Irons
Interesting post.
I'm always hearing about Thaksin from my wife; she was a computer programmer for the Thai government bank before we got married. She despises the red shirts for the violence associated with them; she used to be a yellow shirt, but not any more for various reasons. She was rather apolitical in the past, but now obtains absentee ballots.
Ranb
Ranb
andyandy
anthropomorphic ape
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2006
- Messages
- 8,377
(This is only my 2nd post at this forum. I'm afraid I'll need to don an asbestos suit.
Welcome to the forum - interesting insight!
I'm still struggling to find anyone who seems especially concerned about the coup - most people I've spoken to continue to either be pretty apolitical (we don't like the coup, but don't like the reds or yellows either...) or pretty positive about the coup. Today a taxi driver told me that even though he was a big Thaksin fan he supported the coup because there was too much fighting between the two sides.
I was in the main shopping district of Bangkok (Siam) and life very much as normal for the thousands of shoppers - not a military shirt in sight. Indeed, I've not seen any army at all since the coup (though from accounts they are more active up north where there might be potential trouble....).
Looks like the army will carry on for at least a year or so.