Thailand Military Coup (Again)

[andyandy]

Yet another military coup in Thailand - about 24 hours after the head of the military assured everyone that this "definitely wasn't a coup".....

I'm living in Thailand - what's remarkable is the general lack of interest - I spoke to some people yesterday who didn't even know that there had been a coup - and weren't that bothered when they learned there had. Everything is basically carrying on the same - barring a short closure of all schools for the next 3 days, and all TV stations carrying a jolly message from the army telling everyone how much they love the country.

I've wondered about this before - I think that the fact that the army is seen to act on behalf of the (much loved) king means that they inherently enjoy a greater degree of respect than most of the politicians. Add to that a national draft which means that all Thai men have previously served in the army, and people seem to see the army as as representative (or more representative) than the politicians.

which possibly explains why we have quite so many coups....

Anyway, I would be interested in any other opinions about the state of politics in Thailand - and the role of the army etc etc.

Cheers

 

[andyandy]

Thailand's army seized control of the country and suspended the constitution on Thursday after rival factions failed in talks to end six months of political turmoil, causing the nation's 19th coup in 82 years.

While General Prayuth Chan-ocha, head of the army and now acting prime minister, did not use the word "coup" in his televised announcement to the nation, he said the takeover was necessary "in order for the country to return to normality quickly, and for society to love and be at peace again".

He added: "We ask the public not to panic and to carry on their lives normally."

The surprise announcement followed the unexpected, late-night, invocation of martial law on Tuesday, which the army said was not a coup but merely a peacekeeping move to "restore order" in a nation beleaguered by political in-fighting.

The US secretary of state, John Kerry, in a strongly worded statement warning that the takeover would "have negative implications for the US-Thai relationship", openly condemned Prayuth's move and said: "There is no justification for this military coup."

He added: "I urge the restoration of civilian government immediately, a return to democracy, and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, such as press freedoms. The path forward for Thailand must include early elections that reflect the will of the people."

Bangkok's road traffic increased Thursday evening after the military announced a nationwide 10pm-5am curfew. Many people stocked up on essentials at supermarkets and small shops.

The army also banned public gatherings of five or more people, suspended all television and radio stations (which are permitted to play only military signals), and established a special unit to monitor social media comment.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-general-prayuth-chan-ocha#start-of-comments

Some more info from the guardian.

 

[Foolmewunz]

There was an earlier thread on this when the demonstrations started and it gained interest when CE and I got into a squabble (which has been settled). I posted a few updates to the sounds of crickets and decided that I wasn't going to be a blogger if no one cared.

I fear you'll have the same result. If we could tie in Scottish Independence and Sarah Palin, maybe some followers, but as a whole... there's no interest.

I was pleased to see this was getting some attention.... and then IT'S YOU! If you want to discuss, drop into the Goodluck Foolmewunz thread in Forum Community. (Sorry... I've stolen the "Hey, we have a poster in Thailand, don't we?" label. People headed to my ongoing saga thread when they heard the news.)

But I agree with you that the general population is very casual about this. I think it's because they see no way out of the impasse. As I mentioned in another thread, they seem not to have received Chapter II in their mail order course on Representative Democracies. That would be "Chapter II: In a constitutional monarchy or parliamentary monarchy, COMPROMISE is often necessary."

 

[andyandy]

There was an earlier thread on this when the demonstrations started and it gained interest when CE and I got into a squabble (which has been settled). I posted a few updates to the sounds of crickets and decided that I wasn't going to be a blogger if no one cared.

I fear you'll have the same result. If we could tie in Scottish Independence and Sarah Palin, maybe some followers, but as a whole... there's no interest.

I was pleased to see this was getting some attention.... and then IT'S YOU! If you want to discuss, drop into the Goodluck Foolmewunz thread in Forum Community. (Sorry... I've stolen the "Hey, we have a poster in Thailand, don't we?" label. People headed to my ongoing saga thread when they heard the news.)

But I agree with you that the general population is very casual about this. I think it's because they see no way out of the impasse. As I mentioned in another thread, they seem not to have received Chapter II in their mail order course on Representative Democracies. That would be "Chapter II: In a constitutional monarchy or parliamentary monarchy, COMPROMISE is often necessary."

The Guardian is always very big on news from Thailand - I think mainly because they actually have a foreign correspondent (who knew papers still had these!) based in Bangkok - but I guess for the wider world, another coup in Thailand is only of passing interest. Which, given that it seems only of passing interest to the Thais, maybe isn't too surprising

 

[Mister Earl]

Heck, I'm concerned. It's kind of baffling to me to see the folks over there being so blase' about it, but as I'm learning, it seems like a military coup is something of a national pasttime over there.

Why does this sort of thing happen so often? Is the government really that unstable?

 

[AdMan]

Heck, I'm concerned. It's kind of baffling to me to see the folks over there being so blase' about it, but as I'm learning, it seems like a military coup is something of a national pasttime over there.

I was wondering about this too. Where else in the world--even in other developing countries--would a military coup generate so little interest locally?

I travelled to Thailand relatively frequently for some time until a few years ago, and I still find it kind of baffling. My guess, as the OP points out, is that it has something to do with the king. He is really loved and venerated over there, and as long as the military says they will maintain and respect the royalty, then it's OK. Still somewhat baffling to a farang.

 

[Ryokan]

I have some Thai friends who, when asked, all agree that the military taking control like this is undemocratic and a bad thing. Beyond that, they didn't seem to care much. It was what it was. One of them explained it with Thais' great respect for authority.

 

[Vermonter]

I have absolutely no ties to the region, but I did lol a bit at the "we aren't staging a coup" statement followed by "we're staging a coup" a few days later when the military did in fact take over. At least it was a bloodless coup. It is...eerie...to learn that the Thai population isn't reacting over this.

 

[Aepervius]

Yet another military coup in Thailand

It feels nearly like "oh it is summer again". Like a yearly reccurence. And it is so far away that many of us have no clue about the local politic. So I am not surprised I see few reaction.

 

[Foolmewunz]

There will be a reaction... there was at the last coup (by the same general, although I don't believe he was the top dog in that one), but only when word ekes back into the country that traditional democracies are angered by any military usurpation of civil authority.

The curfew and closing of the schools and news blackout will probably be short lived, but they want to get control on the information flow as both sides in the dispute (who represent minority interests on their own left-right sides) are willing to exploit rumors to rile up the troops.

But they've been through many coups and even the big time supporters of both sides pretty much admit that their leadership has done some dumb **** that I think what we're seeing, largely, is relief. We were heading to a serious shoot out next week. Suthep did a Saddam Hussein and called for the mother of all battles, almost in the same words. It was seen as a slap in the face to people on the yellow (conservative, loyalist, royalist) side and the worry was that even moderate supporters would have to come out for the big demonstration because it would be loss of face if they didn't. And the redshirts? They couldn't take such a challenge lying down! So they called for a proper populist rally to "stop the coalition". No one doubted that they were calling out followers to arm themselves. (Unregistered guns are quite popular here. There are lots of them. If I can find you ten within thirty minutes, believe me a dedicated politico in one of the cadres can find them that much quicker.)

 

[Foolmewunz]

Okay, I feel like this should be done "in character" as the infamous front line reporter, "I, Richard Thornberg...."

It has occurred to me, although not yet the government, that one of them will figure out this "internet thing" soon. At that time, I may be off the air, so to speak but in the interim, be assured that I, Richard Thornberg, will be here placing myself in harm's way to bring you the news, regardless of threats to my own well being.

Translation(and that's from the Die Hard series by the way): With each passing hour, we lose more media. There are now two dozen radio stations picking up the feed from Military HQ (ETA: And those are the only stations on the air, other than one inexplicable one that is running nothing but bad Thai pop with no commentary or announcers) and we're listening to stuff that sounds like it (if this was China) it could be from one of the holiday festivals of rabid patriotism that they specialize in. Two hours later..... ALL CABLE TV is off. We can't get the Beeb or CNN or Fox or Al Jazeera.... nor any of the privately held Thai stations. Any station that chooses to stay on the air? It can pick up the feed of news (solely in Thai) from military HQ.

But meanwhile, I can get to all the international news sites and this site on the internet.

My thinking is multi-fold:

1. They don't know how to turn it off without impacting services they, themselves rely on, so aren't bothering to do so..... yet.
2. Couple that with the fact that they're old school and don't realize that the entire country is wired and on mobile devices, so they think cutting the hoi polloi off from radio and TV is sufficient.
3. Alternately... the internet is next. They're doing things one at a time.

There are a large number of providers (ISP) out there, but not so many as television and radio stations, so they can get to them easily. I think they're looking for a solution to cut off "users other than.....", and not just pull the plug, completely.

We'll see. But AndyAndy and I may be missing for a while if they pull it.

 

[Aepervius]

I wonder if it would be that hard to cut the internet access without hindering themselves. Presumably military use SSH only anyway. Easy work around cut off all access using any port other than SSH ports.


Naturally the problem might simply be the banks. They might simply be avoiding touching internet because one of the collateral would be banks... And even the military might think twice before angering banks .

 

[a_unique_person]

The better off classes won't accept a democratic decision, so they bring the whole thing crashing down. They don't like a corrupt PM. I think they don't like it when it's new money corruption moving in on their patch.

 

[Foolmewunz]

The better off classes won't accept a democratic decision, so they bring the whole thing crashing down. They don't like a corrupt PM. I think they don't like it when it's new money corruption moving in on their patch.

Well, unlike the GOP in America, they've woken up and smelled the coffee and are blatantly honest about it. They cannot win a popular election on a national basis, so they're kicking around any reforms that would assure that they have greater than one vote per person.

In local news, apparently the police department here is missing. The local chief is a redshirt (Shinawatra faction) supporter, so the move looks to be very political. We haven't seen a cop on the streets since the Navy sent their police in late yesterday. And the local chief, and his wife, are definitely missing. Normally, I'm no fan of the local constabulary. They are as corrupt as the come. But I'm even less a fan of military police patrolling my city... particularly since they're not patrolling. There is no police visibility whatsoever and this is a town that normally has a very strong officer-in-uniform presence on the roads. (There's nothing to say there's any boost in crime - in fact I doubt there is.... the streets are nearly empty, anyway. But local urban legend is that all the crooks go deep underground during military rule because they might get disappeared for a few months to forever.)

Oh, and several mainstream Thai TV stations have been given to go back on the air tonight. I don't know if that means the cable companies will also be given the okay to recommence with the computer and taped content like the movie channels and whatnot. My friend Inga was here and she said the whole radio and tv shutdown seems less a concern for "bad information" as they claim and more likely to be a psychological note, wanting to smack people with a harsh reminder that there's a new sheriff in town by simply disrupting their normal routine of watching Thai soap operas and Muay Thai matches. If so, it's working. It's a very eerie feeling to go from 98 stations to zero! (But I can still get all the Beeb and CNN stuff on the internet.)

 

[KatieG]

What about cell phone services? Can they do anything to disrupt that?

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

So the one and a half day negotiations. Suspiciously brief? On the radio it was speculated that the military just wanted the chance to get the government to resign, which didn't happen.

 

[andyandy]

I wouldn't expect disruption to internet or phone services - that would really only be if the army genuinely believe there's a likelihood of resistance to the army. I can't see that at the moment. The most vocal protestors over the past year have been the yellow shirts with Suthep - but this is basically what they want - i.e the dissolution of government, the likely banning of the Thaksin-party (again), and then the implementation of a "unity" government (which will be conservative and urban-centric).

The ones who will lose out are the red shirts - but then Yingluck no longer enjoyed the same support here because of the rice-payment pledge, which the farmers feel hasn't been honoured. So, will there be massive resistance from this group? Given that the heartland of red-shirt support is in the northern hinterland, and all the money and influence is in Bangkok, it does seem unlikely.

The army coup does seem genuinely quite popular - most people actually trust the army is acting in the best interest of the population - I think this will progress in a similar way to the last coup in 2006 when Thaksin was ousted. There will be a new PM appointed (maybe someone like serial loser Abhisit) by the army, they will rule for a couple of years, have an election and then lose to whichever new incarnation of the Thaksin party is running, and the whole thing will start again.....

 

[Foolmewunz]

The thing is... there's a genuine place now for a moderate centrist party... sort of Republicans Of Old in the USA context. The populist reforms brought about by Thaksin (and which had started before him, fairly) gave power to each variation of the red shirt party, but it also spread business and money up into the northeast. There is a risen middle class there, particularly the land holders (rice) who are disaffected with the party itself and who would go more moderate. Enlightened self-interest and all that. And there's a young idealistic contingent in the DP who've stayed home and are no part of Suthep's putsch attempt. Those groups together probably have a large enough and active enough popular base to have a party in the middle that would draw from both ends.

But I don't see anyone stepping up to create that party nor getting the required media attention. The DP could become said moderate party if Suthep takes his lying coalition far right and leaves the DP. But I don't see that happening.

As to the actions of the coup, itself.... TV is largely back on. I haven't been in the car since 2:00 pm yesterday, so can't comment on radio. Many of the persons being detained by the military are Pheu Thai (red shirt party) leaders, including Yingluck. But one-by-one, they've also been releasing key figures who were detained a day earlier. It all looks like an exercise in "Who's Your Daddy?" with the General winning every hand.

The real power brokers are not being seen in any of this. The country is still run by its economy. And that's still the old guard palace-connected contingent. The reforms to bring some autonomy back to the local communities have mostly been showcase reforms. By giving power to the local community, they've largely assured that the mining or timber interests who control council meetings and town meetings through money and force are still given a free hand. It's no longer a power broker in Bangkok, but a power broker satellite in the area... but it's the same people carving up and reaping the profits from the natural resources.

And the palace is largely invisible. Normally, the King comes out about now to make a calming speech... the Thai equivalent of "Now y'all make you no never mind about this confusing governing stuff. My friend, the general(admiral) will make sure everything's taken care of, so go on, git... back to work, you lot." And they lap it up! His majesty is very likely too old and infirm to do such a thing so they'll probably prop him up and have him do a hand wave and then report on what it was he's supposed to have said... all written by the handlers. All we've seen on the "royalty" front is Princess Shopping Mall Opener doing some ceremonial stuff with a monk. She's the front-runner among the conservatives as choice for next regent, but it would mean usurping the heir apparent, and unless there's a tragic accident, they will not attempt to change the line of succession. And that's when it gets interesting. The British contingent of Thai ex-pats are fairly adamant that the Prince is a bit of a populist and friend to Thaksin.

 

[andyandy]

Reading the BKK Post today - pretty interesting to see that the army general in charge said that as a matter of urgency they would find the funds to honour the rice-pledge scheme for this year - that's a pretty clever play - because that will assuage most of the red-shirt heartlands, and even though the yellow shirts see this as emblematic of the corruption of the Yingluck administration, they're all happy enough simply that the government is dissolved. So, I can't see any opposition (at least for now) from either of the main factions.

Interestingly also in the BKK post, they reported on "demonstrations" against the coup in bangkok - and put the number at "around 100" - which kind of highlights the lack of popular opposition....

I think things will be OK in Thailand (well, more of the same) for as long as the king is still around - but there is a real danger of serious political unrest when he's not...

 

[Foolmewunz]

I'm still just not sure, to be honest. Every fiber of my old leftie being is against military rule.... in principle.

But so far, the general's the only person on the present political scene who seems to understand "even-handed" and "compromise". Dashing the constitution is decidedly not a good thing, to me. But leaving the upper house in tact is a somewhat radical approach. He wants his actions wrapped in legality.

Is he just a typical putschist who's more clever than others? Or is he really something of a moderate? I have no doubt that the Big Hurt is going to be to the red shirt side. I just hope the Senate isn't the "model" for their idea of reform. It would please the right, of course, because the Senate is always going to be stacked with conservatives under the present system. For those not familiar with it, our upper house is a combination of the US and British upper house systems. Half the members plus one are elected. The others are appointed by a committee, one with a decidedly conservative bent, consisting of the heads of the various organizations that keep throwing the red shirts out of office.