Merged Telepathy test: which number did I write?

[blue sock monkey]

You are all wrong. The answer is the square root of "green". I visualized it clearly and with the greatest sense of optimism and sincerity.

 

[Dave Rogers]

I'm getting a six and a nine. If you multiply them together you get 42.

Dave

 

[The Don]

Oh crud, I get 46.

Then again I was working in base 9

 

[Dave Rogers]

Oh crud, I get 46.

Then again I was working in base 9

Then you should have got 60. Then again, 6 + 0 = 6 and 6 = 4 + 2, so what you really got was 42, same as everybody else. And if you think you got 46, then 6 - 4 = 2, so you got 4 (4+2) which anybody can see is also 42.

Dave

 

[Stereolab]

I say it's 1.

 

[abaddon]

I say it's 1.

But, suppose a=b.

Then a² = ab

Or a²+a²=a²+ab

And 2a²=a²+ab

Add an extra term to each side of the equation, why not.
2a²-2ab=a²+ab-2ab

Therefore 2a²-2ab=a²-ab

Rewriting this as 2(a²-ab)=1(a²-ab)

And cancelling the (a²-ab) terms on each side of the equation

Yields 2=1

So 2=1 and 13 more iterations will bring you to the result that 1 = 42.

So you got the same answer as the rest of us.

Spooky

 

[abaddon]

You are all wrong. The answer is the square root of "green". I visualized it clearly and with the greatest sense of optimism and sincerity.

But according to one G.R. Simpson, numerogically, green can be interpreted thusly.

The g, being the first letter, can be discounted, obviously.

This leaves r, e, e, n.

Their numbers are 18, 5, 5, and 14.

Add them up and lo and behold....42.

 

[abaddon]

Then you should have got 60. Then again, 6 + 0 = 6 and 6 = 4 + 2, so what you really got was 42, same as everybody else. And if you think you got 46, then 6 - 4 = 2, so you got 4 (4+2) which anybody can see is also 42.

Dave

46₉ is correctly 42.

60₇ is also 42 (known as the "careless lumberjack number system".)

 

[blue sock monkey]

But according to one G.R. Simpson, numerogically, green can be interpreted thusly.

The g, being the first letter, can be discounted, obviously.

This leaves r, e, e, n.

Their numbers are 18, 5, 5, and 14.

Add them up and lo and behold....42.

I'm all at sixes and sevens over your corny--wait! 6 x 7 = 42!

But still, I'm beginning to fear this is all for nought.

 

[abaddon]

I'm getting a six and a nine. If you multiply them together you get 42.

Dave

I cannot remember the last time I got a six and a nine. Telepathically.

 

[abaddon]

I'm all at sixes and sevens over your corny--wait! 6 x 7 = 42!

But still, I'm beginning to fear this is all for nought.

LOL

 

[dlorde]

I'm going for '2'.

C'mon, tell us what the number was, so we know who's telepathic and who isn't.

 

[Nay_Sayer]

I'm going for '2'.

C'mon, tell us what the number was, so we know who's telepathic and who isn't.

You're never going to get a reply, The op abandoned the thread after devising the most horrid test imaginable for telepathy.


Spoiler: It was 77, You all were very close, Johnny tell em what their taking home!

 

[superfreddy]

I said "69" about 27 hours ago.

69-27=42!!!

 

[dlorde]

You're never going to get a reply, The op abandoned the thread after devising the most horrid test imaginable for telepathy.

Oh... I didn't see that coming.

 

[Nay_Sayer]

Oh... I didn't see that coming.

Don't fret your taking home;

Telepathy the home game, Levitate objects in the comfort of your own living room. A family fun game for ages 8 to 88.

AND

A months supply of Rice-A-Roni. Rice-A-Roni the San Francisco Treat(tm)

 

[Michel H]

Results of the test

Thank you for your answers and contributions.

The number to guess was a "2".

And the complicated sentence whose hash code was given in post #42 (see: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=8526909#post8526909 ) was:
The number (.ne. xuj75b) is 2 = 2.01 -.01 com. x0y
, where "ne" meant "not equal to" and "com." meant "comment".

13 people gave valid numerical answers (either "1", or "2", or "3", or "4"), out of which 3 (23.1 %) were correct (those given by calwaterbear, Femke and dlorde). Several people also answered "I don't know" in some form (for example, uvar, see: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=8523625#post8523625 ).

Not all answers were credible in the same way, however (at least in my opinion).

For example , in my opinion, the (correct) answer by calwaterbear (who responded to RandomElement):

As I DO have ESP, the answer is unequivocably 3.

wrong oh! I do indeed have ESP, and know for a fact that he wrote 2!

(click on the little red arrow above, next to the name "calwaterbear", to go straight to this post) is more credible than the apparently odd answer by alfaniner:

A sufficiently large value of 1.

, which I accept as a "1" in spite of its oddness.

Like I did for a previous test done on Yahoo! Answers (see this thread: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=237268 ), I have studied each of the 13 valid answers to this test, and I have given to each a "credibility rating" (CR) between -10 and +10. Credible answers (i.e. those with a positive CR) are ideally kind and smart, while non-credible answers (which get a negative CR), are those which do not sound serious, sincere and reliable. Reasons why an answer may not be credible are:
• It is too aggressive.
• It contains one or several incorrect statements.
• It is odd or bizarre.
• The answerer says that his/her answer is not related to telepathy.
• The answer contains a very large number of spelling or syntaxic errors.

I shall now comment each of the 13 valid "numerical" answers (not the answers by people who answered "I don't know") of this test, and rate their credibilities (if you disagree with one or several of my ratings, feel free to say so).

(NOTE: in the remainder of this post, all (numerically) incorrect answers will be printed in red, while all (numerically) correct answers will be printed in green, the colors will not be related to my own credibility evaluations. I invite you to ask yourself the very simple question: "Do the answers in green sound really more credible (or, any different) than the answers in red ? , possibly regardless of my own comments).

Beerina's answer:

4, because drawing a circle around it makes it look like a cool Fantastic Four logo.

My opinion: this answer does not sound hostile, but the reason given is certainly not valid (this answer would have been very different, had the answerer not written the word "because" in it). Credibility rating: CR=-6.
RandomElement's answer:

As I DO have ESP, the answer is unequivocably 3.

The word "unequivocably" (unlike "unequivocally", which means "in a way that is clear and unambiguous") is not mentioned on dictionary.reference.com (which is the first google.com result for "dictionary"), nor in the free dictionary (which is the second google.com result for "dictionary"), nor in the Oxford dictionary. It is, however, listed in the Merriam Webster dictionary, as a nonstandard form of "unequivocally". It is discussed on this page.
Saying that "the answer is unequivocably 3" because he (or she) has ESP sounds slightly arrogant to me. The member name "RandomElement" does not suggest top quality. CR=-4.

Spektator's answers:

It was a 3.

and

I got 24, but if you multiply 24 by the first digit, 2, you get 48.

Then if you add 2 and 4 together, you get 6.

And if you subtract 6 from 48, you get 42.

Sheer proof. Or something.

There is a contradiction between these two answers. CR=-4 (for the valid answer "3").


jdc324's answer:

Even before I opened the thread and saw there was a choice of 1-4, I had guessed that the number was 3. Amazing. In the absence of the knowledge that there were limits, I could have picked any number. But I picked a number between 1 and 4. What are the odds of that?

Then I remembered I'd seen something once about people typically picking certain numbers when asked "think of a number between 1 and n". Googled it and this came up: http://www.cs4fn.org/mathemagic/streetmagic.php It's about 37 being the most likely number for people to pick when asked to choose a number between 1 and 100 (with certain conditions added) but it also has this:

...the numbers 3 and 7, which themselves are the most common answers if you ask people to name a number between 1 and 10...

Funnily enough, three seems to be the most popular choice so far.

(click on "Spoiler" to see the full answer)
This answerer explains or suggests that his answer is probably related to the fact that the numbers 3 and 7 are the most common answers when you ask people to name a number between 1 and 10 (in other words he is saying that his answer is probably not related to telepathy at all). CR=-3.
fromdownunder's answer:

I consulted Consult the Book of Armaments.

Three.

Norm

The "sentence" "I consulted Consult the Book of Armaments." is clearly a very weird element in this answer, and it does not help making it credible. CR=-10.
Lord Emsworth's answer:

You should have made this a poll.

Oh, and it is definitely a "1". If it isn't, then I know you are cheating.

There is an element of aggressivity in this answer, since the answerer suggests that I might be cheating (with a "stick out tongue" emoticon). CR=-6.
calwaterbear's answer:

As I DO have ESP, the answer is unequivocably 3.

wrong oh! I do indeed have ESP, and know for a fact that he wrote 2!

calwaterbear seems to show some sensitivity when he responds to "RandomElement" 's (note this name) incorrect and non-credible answer, and he wrote a fairly nice sentence. Waterbears are very small animals (about 1 millimeter long, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tardigrade ). CR=8.
devnull's answers:

absolutely, positively 4. (post #56)

,

I'm rather surprised so many people are playing along... Well, as far as even responding to this post goes.

Even if people did guess the number, what does this has to do with telepathy? Guessing a number would be just that... a guess.

But..... Im not guessing. Im psychic, and Im positive the number he wrote was 4. (post #93)

and

Whatever number it is, I'm dividing it by zero.... (post #114)

What do you mean "whatever number it is"? I already told you, he wrote the number "4". (post #115)

Devnull is the name of a computer worm, which has been named after "/dev/null", which means "the null device" (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devnull ). So, this answerer's name doesn't sound very "positive". He said "Im not guessing", but I was actually asking people to (telepathically) guess my number. See these two links about the meaning and use of the word "guess": https://www.google.com/#hl=en&sugex..._pw.r_qf.&fp=2a9229fc3c37bd96&biw=948&bih=489 , http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/guess_1?q=guess .
His third post (where he responded to Nay_Sayer) is odd, because he did not say that the number was "4" specifically to Nay_Sayer in his first two posts and, in addition, Nay_sayer, even if he saw devnull's previous posts #56 and #93 (before he, Nay_sayer, wrote his post #114) had no special reason to believe him, more than Femke (post 61) or Jodie (post 91) for example. Small spelling errors in his second post ("Im"). CR=-4.
Femke's answer:

2
(the number of goals in the ladies hockey final last night)

Yay, another number-pickin' thread! (post #61)

What she said about the number of goals in the ladies hockey final was right (see http://www.london2012.com/hockey/ ). She roughly said implicitly that her number was correct in an original way (because I shall be more likely to come back on this forum, and do more telepathy tests if I get many correct answers, rather than no right answer at all). She seemed to be looking forward to another test (see her "Yay"), which was nice of her. CR=8.
Jodie's answer:

three (post #91)

(click on the little red arrow to go to the post, to see her avatar).
This answer is very minimal. The total absence of any comment might indicate something to hide, or a small level of aggressivity. I find the expression on her face (if it's a photo of her) slightly aggressive, CR=-1.
alfaniner's answer:

A sufficiently large value of 1.

This answer is obviously very odd (the sentence "A sufficiently large value of n", for example, would make sense, but not [normally] "A sufficiently large value of 1", notice however that 2 is larger than 1, he/she may have hinted at that), CR=-10.
Stereolab's answer:

I say it's 1.

The sentence "I say it's 1", unlike "I think it's 1", might be considered as typical of somebody who is lying, avatar looks somewhat aggressive, serious name, CR= -2.

, and finally (last but not least) dlorde's answer:

I'm going for '2'.

C'mon, tell us what the number was, so we know who's telepathic and who isn't.

This answerer seems impatient to see the end of this test, which is a good sign (it's logical to expect that those who have answered correctly should be eager that the test ends, because this end should bring them good news, this is not so true for those who have answered incorrectly). He/she also shows an interest for my test. Beautiful avatar ("The Waterseller of Seville" of Spanish painter Velazquez). Strictly speaking, those who have answered incorrectly are also telepathic (in my opinion), but seems a minor detail to me, at the current point of development of this project, and doesn't change the general positive (and modest) tone of this answer. CR=8.

If I retain only the numerical answers which are both valid and credible (i.e. with a positive CR value), only the answers by calwaterbear, Femke and dlorde remain. Since they are all correct (i.e. they all answered correctly "2"), I obtain a 100% correct answer rate (among credible answers). This result holds true if introduce a credibility threshold and limit my final analysis to answers which get a minimum credibility rating equal to 5, for example (because, after analysis, I gave a CR-value equal to +8 to all of these three answers). The probability for this is equal to p = 1/(4^3) = 1.6 %.

I also noticed that two people, namely Spindrift:

How is this a telepathy test and not a guessing game?

My answer is B.

(who also said later:

My second guess is that Michel won't return.

and

Are you going to keep us waiting forever?

What number did you write down?

)
and FramerDave:

2,674,998,103,637,519.026836519

Am I close?

provided answers which were closely related to one of the four valid numerical answers of this test (1, 2, 3 and 4). Spindrift's answer was closely related to "2" because "B" is the second letter of the alphabet, while "2" was the first digit of FramerDave's long number. If I decided to accept as valid an answer which is just closely related to the correct answer (which I actually don't want to do), I would therefore obtain two more correct answers.

 

[jdc324]

Totally worth the wait.

 

[Bell]

So what did I win?

 

[Pup]

13 people gave valid numerical answers (either "1", or "2", or "3", or "4"), out of which 3 (23.1 %) were correct

Wow! Almost exactly one in four (25%). What are the odds!