HoverBoarder
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Do you think that will make Russia more or less likely to continue to purposefully bomb hospitals, breadlines, and rescue workers?
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Syria and UN Security Council Decision
- Thread starter seayakin
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Do you think that will make Russia more or less likely to continue to purposefully bomb hospitals, breadlines, and rescue workers?
Childlike Empress
Banned
How and why the West is quietly ditching Syria
The Astana talks brought a trilateral agreement on mechanisms to monitor the still halfway holding ceasefire between the sponsors Russia, Turkey and Iran. Tomorrow there will be a follow-up meeting in Moscow with the factions that were not invited to Astana because Turkey or Iran had their feelings hurt. They, including the largest excluded party, the PYD, will be briefed on what was discussed, and on a draft constitution that has making the rounds on Russia's initiative, avoiding the word federalism skillfully. If there is enough positive feedback, the plan is to hold a referendum. As it appears, the outline is even more secular than the current constitution, so it remains to be seen how many "moderate" groups can be convinced that a little Idlib caliphate or something could exist in a reunified Syria.
The Astana talks brought a trilateral agreement on mechanisms to monitor the still halfway holding ceasefire between the sponsors Russia, Turkey and Iran. Tomorrow there will be a follow-up meeting in Moscow with the factions that were not invited to Astana because Turkey or Iran had their feelings hurt. They, including the largest excluded party, the PYD, will be briefed on what was discussed, and on a draft constitution that has making the rounds on Russia's initiative, avoiding the word federalism skillfully. If there is enough positive feedback, the plan is to hold a referendum. As it appears, the outline is even more secular than the current constitution, so it remains to be seen how many "moderate" groups can be convinced that a little Idlib caliphate or something could exist in a reunified Syria.
Mycroft
High Priest of Ed
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Well, how is by letting Putin get involved so he could protect his buddy Assad, and why is because the reality is we're more interested in stability than in the long term benefit to Syrians.
Another article from Fort Russ? One of those plucky groups of Russian bloggers who spontaneously decided the best way they can make the world better is to create another internet outlet for president Putin?
Darth Rotor
Salted Sith Cynic
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Back to the title of the thread, seems the UN security council's influence and effectiveness have both been close to nil.
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Bosnian scenario is the only possibility for Syrian quagmire to end. It's not like Russo-Iranian forces can triumph any time soon, or that their triumph would result in a governable country.
Thus far they managed to severely maul the smallest and weakest of the three rebel sides in Syria. It only took some 15 months of sustained Russian intervention to get to a point where they no longer control many major population centers and have agreed to a cease fire of sorts. Russian military budget was seriously slashed this year, so I don't expect them to do much more of this. The other two sides - ISIS and Kurds - are at each others' throats, but since Assad has announced he will defeat both of them, I suppose he intends to fight both of them as well. If so the war won't be over by the end of the next decade.
It would seem that Russia is keenly aware of this and is pushing hard to basically agree to rebel demands from 2011 and then some. The country is no longer to be 'Arab', it will no longer demand the president to be of Muslim faith or the laws to be in compliance with Sharia, it will limit the powers of the president to basically a ceremonial role, they seek to establish multiparty rule, give full rights to the Kurds, lift the state of emergency and so on. If regime had capitulated six years ago and gave in to all demands, they would likely get away with more than this.
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/a...ria-name-change-draft-constitution-1563058466
They'll spin it as a victory, no doubt. Make no mistake though, if, after six years of war, you basically agree to demands your opponents had before the war started, you did not win the war. I'm sure Putin cheerleaders will disagree, but that's the reality of the situation. This is more of Versailles peace of 1919 than anything else.
McHrozni
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dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
Leaving Assad with no real power. I am betting he leaves the country to live off his no doubt very well filled Swiss Bank Account.
Darth Rotor
Salted Sith Cynic
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The Emir of Kuwait joyfully disagrees. Likewise a few tens of millions of South Koreans, and the entire polity of Bosnia, whatever the Kosovars call themselves now, and a few other places of note.
But yeah, not a great track record, as a half a million or so Rwandans tearfully report.
Henri McPhee
Illuminator
Al-Nusra is Al- Qaeda in Syria and it's being supported financially by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and militarily by the CIA who are deciding the policy. Al-Nusra are a bunch of head choppers who believe in murdering unbelievers, and also in Sharia law. I think it's crazy for Mrs. May to say she wants a political transition where there is no place for Assad, and which includes Al-Nusra. They are no friends of Britishers. Donald Trump needs to seize the situation like a man and stop this policy of encouraging Al-Nusra in order to topple Assad. These White Helmets who have just won an oscar in America for their propaganda film are the civil defense of the Nusra front. The White Helmets take part in executions. It's only because journalists at the BBC and New York Times and Washington Post and Reuters don't mind being bugged by German Intelligence, because they have nothing to hide, that this can happen. It's a typical lack of American subtlety.
South Korea was after the deadline the way it was intended, and Bosnia was left with a political stalemate that saw the country stagnate for two decades now.
But yeah, Kuwait is a valid point.
McHrozni
Henri McPhee
Illuminator
Boris Johnson is going to meet the Russians. Does this mean that he must be impeached, or forced to resign?
Mycroft
High Priest of Ed
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Is he then going to lie about it at a congressional hearing?
Childlike Empress
Banned
Assad claimed many times over the years that ISIS will collapse in a couple of weeks once their direct supply from Turkey is cut. Now, since February 27, after a combined effort of SAA, SDF and their respective Russian and US backers, this is the case, so it will be interesting to see how this works out.
Mycroft
High Priest of Ed
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Be sure to let us know what the Putin stooges over at Fort Russ have to say about it.
Childlike Empress
Banned
Informing you about the existence of "it" is more than grateful enough. Same unacknowledged but unenthusiastically denied cooporation in the liberation of Palmyra. Now hush hush go back to what is meant for your consumption over in the Trump Hate Subforum.
trustbutverify
Penultimate Amazing
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I don't think that's going to be a problem.
Henri McPhee
Illuminator
I still don't see why we should support Islamic rebels for a political transition in which there is no place for Assad. Just because the CIA and Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and Qatar, with their lack of subtlety think it's a good idea, and that is covered by the mainstream media, doesn't make it right judgment. These suicide car bombs which kill and injure people are a violation of international law. It's worse than the IRA.
Darth Rotor
Salted Sith Cynic
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This is still one of the best posts in this thread.
I confess, I've used that term to describe a few local politicians. Fair use, and all that.
The people who drive in suicide car bombs give less than a flying fart about your international law. Henri, why do you say such things? Are you trying to deliberately destroy your own credibility?
Childlike Empress
Banned
Collapsing indeed. Just over the weekend ISIS has lost important towns and areas in Aleppo and Homs provinces (to the SAA), in Raqqa province (to the SDF) and in Iraq to the PMU. The operation to liberate Raqqa has started today.
In other news, the poor little boy in the ambulance (you remember) has reappeared and his father tells the story that goes like everyone who knows how these "rebels" operate has suspected in the first place.
Childlike Empress
Banned
Today, after the US has illegally bombed the Syrian Arab Army the third time in recent days to keep them away from their miserable proxy "rebels" hanging out at the Syrian-Iraqi border, claiming that they defend some "de-escalation zone" that is totally imagined and not part of the Russia-Iran-Turkey agreement, with the unclaimed but obvious goal of preventing the re-opening of the highway between Damascus and Baghdad, the SAA has bypassed these clowns north of that zone and reached the border to Iraq, where they were greated by the Iraqi Army/PMU. Congratulations to the tortured peoples of both countries for making that at this point at least symbolic contact!
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