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Some Thoughts on Randi and His Challenge

princhester said:
Sure, Hansel dismissed the Pearce-Pratt thing on grounds you say were invalid. So what? His dismissal was (as you say) dismissed itself. Nothing turned on what Hansel said. He was not the last word. He could have said that Pearce-Pratt were aliens and that the moon was made of green cheese. Would that have made it so?

You continue to imbue Randi with some sort of superpower, where he can just with a dismissive wave of his hand "vanish" someone who follows the agreed protocol and passes a test.

You continue to ignore the public and legal consequences that would follow if Randi did that.

I'm sure Randi would love to live in the universe in which you say he lives: in which for example when he owes someone money he can just say "no I don't" and the debt vanishes.



1. The only skeptic who ever (at least publicly) found fault with Hansel's dismissal of the Pearce-Pratt results was Hyman. Hansel's explanation was (and still is) taken seriously by many skeptics.

2. I am not the one imbuing Randi with the ability to dismiss tests he feels didn't follow the proper protocols. Randi gives himself that ability.

3. I have already addressed (in detail) the legal and public consequences of what you think would happen should Randi dismiss a test in this way. I believe I have shown your assumptions to be incorrect.



amherst
 
Amhearst:
After reading those papers, if you still see problems with the ganzfeld experiments then please tell me what you think those problems are and we can discuss them.
On the original article:
I have some major questions about the meta-analysis, some of which can be answered from reading the artcile, but the subject of meta-analysis is a very difficult one in any science, the article takes a rather glib approach.
In meta nalysis it is very imporatant to discuss the methodology of `each experiment included in the analysis, which a cursory reading does not show.
Without a discussion of how the method was done, it is almost impossible to dicuss the validity of a meta nalysis.
In another thread there was a discussion of how 'hits' are scored, there is generaly major room for experimenter error in the ganzfeld studies.
I will read more of the original paper by Honorton and see if it addresses these issues.
 
I am sorry that you don't agree with Hyman or any other scientist about this Dancing David, but there will always be a way to show how fraud got into an experiment, even if it didn't. There will always be a way to show how protocol wasn't followed, even if it really was. I have already given an example of this by showing how C.E.M. Hansel dismissed the Pearce-Pratt card test.

I think that this is idle speculation about the commision of fraud is very interesting and a valid point about the nature of science.

However:
The protocol most likely already has in it, the ways to determine if fraud was used by the claimant.
For example there is most likely a body search of the claimant prior to the test or they have to strip and wear presearched clothing, to make sure that no radio transmissions are used, to bring up the Rhine experiements is a sidebar.

If the protocols are correctly established, there will be no known way that fraud can be committed, that is why the protocols are ther in the first place. Most of the protocol will be specificaly designed to show that fraud was not a possibilty.

How would you introduce fraud after the fact when the protocols are expressly designed to prevent fraud?

Your quotes in the original post are also hearsay evidence about the nature of Randi's deciet. If the protocols are followed and fraud is perpetrated then the money will still be awarded, the protocols are established to discover or prevent fraud.

I think it is hystericaly funny that you would make this claim, there is no proof of psi in correctly designed experiment where there is no room for experiemental errror.

I would really like to believe that psi exists, but there is zero proof, that was not obtained through bogus methodology.

That is why everybody does the Ganzfeld thing now, they could do the Rhine thing. But under proper conditions it shows nothing.

I wish it did, but it doesn't.
 
Amhearst:

The article did some mention of the methodology amonst the different studies but basicaly glossed over it, From the section above table one:
As Table 1 shows, there were 106 hits in the 329 sessions, a hit rate of 32% (z = 2.89, p = .002, one-tailed), with a 95% confidence interval from 27% to 37%. [Note. This interval was misreported in the published article and has been corrected for this online version.] This corresponds to an effect size (pi) of .59, with a 95% confidence interval from .53 to .64.

This is in essence the meat of the study, the second portion shows a much lower hit rate.
The question is this, is 32% statisticaly significant or is it withing the range to be expected by random statistical variation.?


The number of studies is soo low that it is hard to draw a conclusion. I believe mysel that Rhine had it right to keep the symbols clean and uncluttered. I feel that what hits there are are produced by the wide open method, but as of yet I can not formaly express my thoughts upon the matter.

If there were thousand of trails and they were all done under the same method then I would be more confident but the meta-analysis is flawwed in ragards to the fact that the studies did use different methods, the rate of hit frequency can not be calculated accurately because they did not all have the same number of possibles in the studies.

The solution is to run thousands of studies where every thing is controlled, especialy the ability to throw out the bad runs.

Thanks I will now get to the other articles in time.
 
amherst said:
1. The only skeptic who ever (at least publicly) found fault with Hansel's dismissal of the Pearce-Pratt results was Hyman. Hansel's explanation was (and still is) taken seriously by many skeptics.

Your world view is so limited. There are skeptics and nobody else it seems.

2. I am not the one imbuing Randi with the ability to dismiss tests he feels didn't follow the proper protocols. Randi gives himself that ability.

Name one other person besides yourself and Interesting Ian who says that Randi can dismiss tests (that did follow the protocol) on the basis that they didn't follow the protocol, with impunity. Find one quote, one term of his application agreement, whatever, where Randi says this. YOU are the one imbuing Randi with this attribute and no one else.

3. I have already addressed (in detail) the legal and public consequences of what you think would happen should Randi dismiss a test in this way. I believe I have shown your assumptions to be incorrect.

No, actually you haven't. Not even close. When it got too hard, you just dropped out of the debate.

As to the public consequences, you still haven't addressed my YB hypothetical, you still haven't addressed the question of why you are not committing the "only game in town" fallacy, you have such a narrow world view that you think skeptics control the whole debate.

As to legal consequences, you still haven't come up with any way in which Randi is going to wriggle out of the contractual consequences of someone passing the test while following the protocol. When we left off that debate you were fantasizing about contractual terms that aren't there. I pointed that out and you went very quiet. But now we learn that "you have shown my assumptions to be incorrect".

Keep dreamin' buddy.
 
Cool I had already read the BEm, article which does not exactly deny the study showing that the Honorton study was flawed. In fact Bem point out many interesting differences in mthodology in all the studies which means the meta-analysis is very severely flawed.(That is also true of almost all meta-analysis)

Bem writes
The 10 new ganzfeld studies yield an overall hit rate of 36.7%, ES = .17, Stouffer Z= 3.97, p = 3.5 x 10-5, one-tailed, and all 40 studies combined yield an overall hit rate of 30.1%, ES = .051, Stouffer Z = 2.59, p = .0048, one-tailed. This latter set of figures thus represents the current status of ganzfeld studies published after those summarized in Bem and Honorton (1994). By this measure, then, the ganzfeld effect remains replicable. But the mean effect size for these 40 studies falls below the 95% confidence intervals for both the 39 pre-autoganzfeld studies (.080 to .328) and the 10 previous autoganzfeld studies (.059 to .269).3 Accordingly, we now turn to our hypothesis that the effect sizes of the ganzfeld replications are moderated by the degree to which their experimental procedures adhere to the standard ganzfeld protocol.
So he spell out the area that needs to be clarified for further study and agrees with Wiseman that the main problem is that there are not enough studies in general.

There is also serious need to randomise all targets.

I think that is my main concern about the ganfeld studies, if the target pictures are not randomly chosen out of the set of four there there could be an effect where the picture chosen is just the one that appeals to the rater the most. If the picture are not chosen randomly then there is a real problem, if the experimenter choses the pictures non-randomly they could be getting the succsess rate just from which pictures are liked the best.

But what would a standard deviation be I would assume that it coulod be as high as twelve percent which would negate all the studies for being meaningful.

So there need to be more studies and in fact there need to be more studies by people who are blind to the prutpose of the study so either belief or scepiticism will not influence the results.
 
Parallel examination of the PEAR meta-analysis studies (into remote viewing) revealed very similar issues: There were very few similar studies of the same type and method and size.

What is more, in 2002, PEAR admitted that the analysis AND meta-analysis of the data sets yielded nothing statistical at all.

More soon... :)
 
quote:
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Originally posted by amherst
1. The only skeptic who ever (at least publicly) found fault with Hansel's dismissal of the Pearce-Pratt results was Hyman. Hansel's explanation was (and still is) taken seriously by many skeptics.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


princhester wrote:
"Your world view is so limited. There are skeptics and nobody else it seems."

My response:
If you had read my earlier post more carefully you would know that I dealt with how the general public would react to Randi dismissing a successful test like Hansel. Since you seem to have missed it, here it is again:

1c. Since many tests aren't publicized in the first
place, very few will ever be able to be truly
examined by anyone.
1d. Randi's opinion holds more weight in the public arena than any claimants. If a claimant ever disagrees with Randi's decision that violation of protocol was the cause of the claimant's success, the public would be likely to agree with Randi since he is considered an expert at what he does.



quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. I am not the one imbuing Randi with the ability to dismiss tests he feels didn't follow the proper protocols. Randi gives himself that ability.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


princhester wrote:
"Name one other person besides yourself and Interesting Ian who says that Randi can dismiss tests (that did follow the protocol) on the basis that they didn't follow the protocol, with impunity. Find one quote, one term of his application agreement, whatever, where Randi says this. YOU are the one imbuing Randi with this attribute and no one else."

My response:
Must I really keep repeating this for you? You and I have agreed that Randi has the ability to dismiss tests he feels did not follow proper protocol. We also agree that there are always ways an experiment can be shown to have not followed proper protocol(see Hyman quote, and Hansel). Since there is always going to be a way to show how a claimant didn't follow proper protocol, Randi will always be able to dismiss successful tests since he is the one who decides whether they followed the protocol or not.

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. I have already addressed (in detail) the legal and public consequences of what you think would happen should Randi dismiss a test in this way. I believe I have shown your assumptions to be incorrect.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


princhester wrote:
"No, actually you haven't. Not even close. When it got too hard, you just dropped out of the debate.

As to the public consequences, you still haven't addressed my YB hypothetical, you still haven't addressed the question of why you are not committing the "only game in town" fallacy, you have such a narrow world view that you think skeptics control the whole debate.

As to legal consequences, you still haven't come up with any way in which Randi is going to wriggle out of the contractual consequences of someone passing the test while following the protocol. When we left off that debate you were fantasizing about contractual terms that aren't there. I pointed that out and you went very quiet. But now we learn that "you have shown my assumptions to be incorrect"."


My response:
1. I have already explained that since a claimant is not entitled to any money if they succeed in a preliminary test, if Randi dismisses it, he could not be forced to part with the million since the claimant would not be entitled to that million. This would be different if it was a formal test. You seem to have reached the point where you are failing to understand the obvious. I have reached the point where I am tired of constantly spoon-feeding it to you.

2. I have also pointed out the part in Randi's contract where it says that any claimant who doesn't follow the rules becomes stripped of ever having been a claimant at all. Since Randi decides if the claimant followed the rules or not, any claimant who succeeds, will (and according to hyman or any scientist can)be said/shown to have not followed them.

Just one of these points taken by itself shows that Randi could not be sued for the million if there was a dispute over his dismissal of a successful test. I can't help it if you want to be ridiculous and deny that.



amherst
 
Dear oh dear, Amherst. I post on these boards for recreation. Debating someone who thinks that posting a host of obvious and documented lies is acceptable is no fun. Goodbye.
 
I've calmed down now and I'll give it one more shot.

amherst said:
1c. Since many tests aren't publicized in the first
place, very few will ever be able to be truly
examined by anyone.

There is no reason that a preliminary test can't be well documented including by video etc and independantly observed, including by credible observers that the applicant trusts. If the applicant passes, as I have stated before, they can give whatever publicity they want to the fact they have done so, and they will have records and independant eyewitnesses to prove it.

You cannot deal with this point, that is why you are studiously avoiding an answer to my YB hypothetical.

1d. Randi's opinion holds more weight in the public arena than any claimants. If a claimant ever disagrees with Randi's decision that violation of protocol was the cause of the claimant's success, the public would be likely to agree with Randi since he is considered an expert at what he does.

Randi's opinion holds weight because he has a good reputation. If he started doing what you suggest he can do, he would lose that reputation, particularly if he started alleging that there were protocol breaches in contradiction to the documentation of those tests. See point above.

The tests are not rocket science. They are usually very simple. Anyone can understand them. People are going to rely on their own judgement, not Randi's. Once again we see that you imbue Randi with remarkable powers that he just does not have.

Must I really keep repeating this for you? You and I have agreed that Randi has the ability to dismiss tests he feels did not follow proper protocol. We also agree that there are always ways an experiment can be shown to have not followed proper protocol(see Hyman quote, and Hansel).

You can keep repeating whatever rubbish you want, as long as you want. It's still rubbish. Is repeating that I agree with you when I don't and have said that I don't the only argument you have left?

Since there is always going to be a way to show how a claimant didn't follow proper protocol, Randi will always be able to dismiss successful tests since he is the one who decides whether they followed the protocol or not.

No matter how many times you repeat that he is the one who decides if the protocol has been followed, it is still not true. You just plain can't read. Nothing in the terms of the application says this. It is just fantasy.
I have already explained that since a claimant is not entitled to any money if they succeed in a preliminary test, if Randi dismisses it, he could not be forced to part with the million since the claimant would not be entitled to that million. This would be different if it was a formal test. You seem to have reached the point where you are failing to understand the obvious. I have reached the point where I am tired of constantly spoon-feeding it to you.

Amherst, I know you have asserted this. I also know, as a consequence, that you don't understand contract law. I practice in contract law between 5 and 7 days of the friggin' week. I have explained why you are wrong.

I will repeat, for your ready reference:

Party A to a contract cannot, by unilaterally refusing to undertake Party A's side of the bargain, prevent Party B from obtaining Party B's entitlements under a contract. That would put Party A in breach of contract, entitling Party B to damages equivalent to what they would have earned if the contract had gone ahead.

The application, signed by Randi, states that he will administer a preliminary test, and if that is passed he will administer a formal test, and if that is passed he will give $1m. Randi cannot crash the process by the simply refusing to administer the formal test, if the testee fulfils the first step in the process by passing the preliminary. If Randi did, he would be in breach of the contract and damages of $1m will flow to the testee.

Bear in mind when responding that there is a difference between not understanding why you are wrong, and being right. You are firmly in the former category at present. Try to understand the above. If you cannot, just accept that you do not have the knowledge or intelligence to participate in this discussion and go away.

I have also pointed out the part in Randi's contract where it says that any claimant who doesn't follow the rules becomes stripped of ever having been a claimant at all.

No. You have not. You have quoted the rule from the application form which says:

Any applicant who refuses to agree to meet the rules as outlined here, will not be considered to have ever been a claimant.

This does not say that someone who fails to follow the rules is not a claimant. It says that someone who does not AGREE to meet the rules is not a claimant. In other words, until you have signed the application form, you are not a claimant. That is all it says. This rules says NOTHING about failing to follow the protocol, (which at the time of signing the application won't even have been agreed).

Furthermore, even if your interpretation was right (which it isn't) that wouldn't alter anything at all if there were a dispute between Randi and a claimant as to whether the claimant had passed the test while following the protocol. Because the claimant could sue on that basis. If Randi reckoned they had not followed the protocol, that would be up to him to prove. And given the documented demonstration with independant observers, Randi would lose.
 
princhester wrote:
"I've calmed down now and I'll give it one more shot."



quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by amherst
1c. Since many tests aren't publicized in the first
place, very few will ever be able to be truly
examined by anyone.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



"There is no reason that a preliminary test can't be well documented including by video etc and independantly observed, including by credible observers that the applicant trusts. If the applicant passes, as I have stated before, they can give whatever publicity they want to the fact they have done so, and they will have records and independant eyewitnesses to prove it.

You cannot deal with this point, that is why you are studiously avoiding an answer to my YB hypothetical."



My response:
I have dealt with this point ad nauseam. Are you now disagreeing with Hyman etc all when they say that fraud can always be shown to have entered any test, even if it didn't? If you're not, then what basis do you have for your criticism? It is not my job to sit around and come up with hypothetical ways that fraud could have been shown to have taken place in well conducted experiments. That job is for the Randis and the Hansels of the world.


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1d. Randi's opinion holds more weight in the public arena than any claimants. If a claimant ever disagrees with Randi's decision that violation of protocol was the cause of the claimant's success, the public would be likely to agree with Randi since he is considered an expert at what he does.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


princhester wrote:
"Randi's opinion holds weight because he has a good reputation. If he started doing what you suggest he can do, he would lose that reputation, particularly if he started alleging that there were protocol breaches in contradiction to the documentation of those tests. See point above.

The tests are not rocket science. They are usually very simple. Anyone can understand them. People are going to rely on their own judgement, not Randi's. Once again we see that you imbue Randi with remarkable powers that he just does not have."



My response:
Randi has had heavy access to the media. He is well known as an exposer of charlatans. He has considerable rhetoric. If he confidently proclaims that a claimant succeeded by fraud or by some other error in following protocol which he has shown to have been a possibility, I find it hard to see how he would lose any credibility.



quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Must I really keep repeating this for you? You and I have agreed that Randi has the ability to dismiss tests he feels did not follow proper protocol. We also agree that there are always ways an experiment can be shown to have not followed proper protocol(see Hyman quote, and Hansel).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


princhester wrote:
"You can keep repeating whatever rubbish you want, as long as you want. It's still rubbish. Is repeating that I agree with you when I don't and have said that I don't the only argument you have left?"



My response:
What about this do you disagree with me about? Has your stance now become that Randi doesn't have the ability to dismiss tests which he feels didn't follow proper protocol? If so, then how did that change of mind come about? What information which I'm not aware of has caused that change?

Do you disagree with me that there will always be a way for an experiment to be shown to have not followed proper protocol? Surely you know that you are not just disagreeing with me on this, right? You're also disagreeing with Hyman and every other scientist. So what is your stance?


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since there is always going to be a way to show how a claimant didn't follow proper protocol, Randi will always be able to dismiss successful tests since he is the one who decides whether they followed the protocol or not.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


princhester wrote:
"No matter how many times you repeat that he is the one who decides if the protocol has been followed, it is still not true. You just plain can't read. Nothing in the terms of the application says this. It is just fantasy."



My response:
Who is the one who decides then? Is your stance that it is supposed to be self evident? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and hold off believing that that's your position. Please explain to me who you think it is who decides whether a test followed protocol or not. I've asked you to state your position clearly before, you should comply.



quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have already explained that since a claimant is not entitled to any money if they succeed in a preliminary test, if Randi dismisses it, he could not be forced to part with the million since the claimant would not be entitled to that million. This would be different if it was a formal test. You seem to have reached the point where you are failing to understand the obvious. I have reached the point where I am tired of constantly spoon-feeding it to you.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


princhester wrote:
"Amherst, I know you have asserted this. I also know, as a consequence, that you don't understand contract law. I practice in contract law between 5 and 7 days of the friggin' week. I have explained why you are wrong.

I will repeat, for your ready reference:


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Party A to a contract cannot, by unilaterally refusing to undertake Party A's side of the bargain, prevent Party B from obtaining Party B's entitlements under a contract. That would put Party A in breach of contract, entitling Party B to damages equivalent to what they would have earned if the contract had gone ahead.

The application, signed by Randi, states that he will administer a preliminary test, and if that is passed he will administer a formal test, and if that is passed he will give $1m. Randi cannot crash the process by the simply refusing to administer the formal test, if the testee fulfils the first step in the process by passing the preliminary. If Randi did, he would be in breach of the contract and damages of $1m will flow to the testee.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Bear in mind when responding that there is a difference between not understanding why you are wrong, and being right. You are firmly in the former category at present. Try to understand the above. If you cannot, just accept that you do not have the knowledge or intelligence to participate in this discussion and go away."



My response:
You seem to want to assume that if a claimant passes the preliminary test, he's a shoe in to pass the formal one and thus win the million. Based on the rules this is certainly not Randi's position, or there would be no preliminary test in the first place. You have done nothing, except assert that you practice law, to show that a claimant would be entitled to something he wouldn't be entitled to ordinarily.


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have also pointed out the part in Randi's contract where it says that any claimant who doesn't follow the rules becomes stripped of ever having been a claimant at all.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


princhester wrote:
"No. You have not. You have quoted the rule from the application form which says:


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Any applicant who refuses to agree to meet the rules as outlined here, will not be considered to have ever been a claimant.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



This does not say that someone who fails to follow the rules is not a claimant. It says that someone who does not AGREE to meet the rules is not a claimant. In other words, until you have signed the application form, you are not a claimant. That is all it says. This rules says NOTHING about failing to follow the protocol, (which at the time of signing the application won't even have been agreed).

Furthermore, even if your interpretation was right (which it isn't) that wouldn't alter anything at all if there were a dispute between Randi and a claimant as to whether the claimant had passed the test while following the protocol. Because the claimant could sue on that basis. If Randi reckoned they had not followed the protocol, that would be up to him to prove. And given the documented demonstration with independant observers, Randi would lose"


My response:
If my interpretation was correct, then the claimant would be contractually agreeing that if he decided not to follow the rules, he would be seen as never having been a claimant at all. This would mean he could never sue Randi since Randi's agreement with him would be invalidated. If you believe my interpretation was incorrect then see my above response. Either way Randi can't be sued for the million.


amherst
 
Amhearst:
I have dealt with this point ad nauseam. Are you now disagreeing with Hyman etc all when they say that fraud can always be shown to have entered any test, even if it didn't? If you're not, then what basis do you have for your criticism? It is not my job to sit around and come up with hypothetical ways that fraud could have been shown to have taken place in well conducted experiments. That job is for the Randis and the Hansels of the world.

And some of us have tried to address this point, not to the point of nausea but certainly to the point of repetition.

In Human's analysis of the Pratt study, he points out some major methodological eror in the way the study was designed.

I repeat, a proper methodology will exclude the possibility of fraud from the start.

Take the Pratt/Rhine precognitive studies.
By using a double blind, impartial observers and recording results by other pbservers the chance for fraud could have been reduced to zero. Though randomization of the cards the further chance of fraud can be brought to a finite amount close to zero.

Under these circumstances , and with a good protocol, you can not just quote Hyman and say "Well fraud can be introduced and therefore Randi can back out." I think that you are arguing through a fallacy of appeal to authority. I disagree with Hyman, proper protoclos can exclude the possibility of hypothetical fraud.

My challenge to Amhearst:

1.Give me an example of a psi event, your choice. Discuss in specific what a positive resuly will be.
2.I will then give you a tentative protocol for how I would conduct the test. And what will constitute a negative.
3.We will then discuss how fraud can be inroduced into the venet , and I will argue that a properly designed protocl will eliminate the chance for fraud.

I have found that it is always helpful to discuss specifics, I claim that if the protocols are followed then the event will lead to the formal test in the case of a positive. I maintain that fruad must be eliminated by the protocols. That is what methodology is for.
 
amherst said:
I have dealt with this point ad nauseam. Are you now disagreeing with Hyman etc all when they say that fraud can always be shown to have entered any test, even if it didn't? If you're not, then what basis do you have for your criticism? It is not my job to sit around and come up with hypothetical ways that fraud could have been shown to have taken place in well conducted experiments. That job is for the Randis and the Hansels of the world.

Sure I'm disagreeing. Besides which, all they say is that fraud can be alleged in any test. Not that it can be proved. And if someone passed a preliminary test, it would be up to Randi to prove that there was fraud involved, not the other way around.

And frankly, if you are the one alleging that Randi could fraudulently get out of any test that someone passed, it is entirely up to you to prove that. You are the one making the allegation, prove it or shut up.

Randi has had heavy access to the media. He is well known as an exposer of charlatans. He has considerable rhetoric. If he confidently proclaims that a claimant succeeded by fraud or by some other error in following protocol which he has shown to have been a possibility, I find it hard to see how he would lose any credibility.

You are steadfastly refusing to deal with or even mention my YB hypothetical, because you simply can't deal with it.

What about this do you disagree with me about? Has your stance now become that Randi doesn't have the ability to dismiss tests which he feels didn't follow proper protocol? If so, then how did that change of mind come about? What information which I'm not aware of has caused that change?

I only ever agreed that in theory Randi can allege whatever he wants, in the same way any lunatic can allege that the moon is made of green cheese or that black is white. I have never agreed that Randi could do so credibly, or without loss of reputation, or in a court of law or that he could prove fraud in any test.

Taking an admission, expanding it, then pretending that the admission was wider than it was is the behaviour of a jerk. Bear that in mind.

Do you disagree with me that there will always be a way for an experiment to be shown to have not followed proper protocol? Surely you know that you are not just disagreeing with me on this, right? You're also disagreeing with Hyman and every other scientist. So what is your stance?

Yes I do. How many more times am I going to have to say this before it gets through your dense skull?

I don't give a damn who I disagree with. And as for me disagreeing with "every other scientist" are you fantasising much?

Who is the one who decides then? Is your stance that it is supposed to be self evident? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and hold off believing that that's your position. Please explain to me who you think it is who decides whether a test followed protocol or not. I've asked you to state your position clearly before, you should comply.

Ultimately, given that there is a binding contract involved, it would be a court. However, given that the tests are usually pretty simple, and they can be documented to hell (see my YB hypothetical if you can bear to bring yourself to think about it) in the first instance it's usually going to be pretty easy to see if the protocol was followed. The important point is that if the protocol was followed but Randi says otherwise, it'll be up to him to prove that (ultimately in court) and unless the claimant has stupidly agreed to conduct an undocumented test, it'll be pretty damn hard for Randi to prove a breach of protocol if there wasn't one.

You seem to want to assume that if a claimant passes the preliminary test, he's a shoe in to pass the formal one and thus win the million. Based on the rules this is certainly not Randi's position, or there would be no preliminary test in the first place. You have done nothing, except assert that you practice law, to show that a claimant would be entitled to something he wouldn't be entitled to ordinarily.

No I've done more than that, I've provided you with two paragraphs explaining the legal position which you evidently are unable or unwilling to understand. If Randi refuses to go on, with an applicant who has passed the preliminary test, he is in breach of contract. It would be up to Randi to show why the applicant should not be entitled to damages of one million dollars due to Randi's refusal to go on with the formal test. Given that the only evidence at that time as to whether the applicant could or could not pass the formal test would be his passing of the preliminary, the applicant would get a million dollars worth of damages unless Randi could prove that the protocol was not followed in the preliminary.

I'll give you a simple example. Say you enter into a contract with me to come onto my property and chop down a tree, and if you do that OK then the next day you can chop down another tree on my property and we agree I'll then give you $5000. You come onto my property and chop down the first tree. I then refuse to go on with the contract, don't let you back onto my property the next day and say "you can't have the $5000 because you didn't chop down the second tree".

You sue. I say "but I bet even if I'd let you come onto the property you couldn't have chopped down the second tree, you couldn't have done it". The court would say "no way, princhester, you can't get out of payment by your own breach of contract in refusing to let him onto the property to chop down the second tree. And as to your allegation that he couldn't have chopped down the second tree, well all I have to go by is that he could chop down the first tree, so unless you can prove he didn't actually chop down the first tree, it's damages of $5000 to amherst, buster!"

You're dead wrong on this point, amherst, you've just put too much ego behind it to admit it.

If my interpretation was correct, then the claimant would be contractually agreeing that if he decided not to follow the rules, he would be seen as never having been a claimant at all. This would mean he could never sue Randi since Randi's agreement with him would be invalidated. If you believe my interpretation was incorrect then see my above response. Either way Randi can't be sued for the million.

It all ends up in the same place. For Randi to allege that the claimant never was a claimant because he didn't follow the rules, Randi first has to prove that the claimant didn't follow the rules. And we are back to square one, which is that for Randi to get out of a passed preliminary where the protocol was followed, it would be up to Randi to prove that the protocol was not followed.
 
princhester wrote:
quote:
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Originally posted by amherst
I have dealt with this point ad nauseam. Are you now disagreeing with Hyman etc all when they say that fraud can always be shown to have entered any test, even if it didn't? If you're not, then what basis do you have for your criticism? It is not my job to sit around and come up with hypothetical ways that fraud could have been shown to have taken place in well conducted experiments. That job is for the Randis and the Hansels of the world.
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"Sure I'm disagreeing. Besides which, all they say is that fraud can be alleged in any test. Not that it can be proved. And if someone passed a preliminary test, it would be up to Randi to prove that there was fraud involved, not the other way around.

And frankly, if you are the one alleging that Randi could fraudulently get out of any test that someone passed, it is entirely up to you to prove that. You are the one making the allegation, prove it or shut up."



My response:
Actually they say that fraud can be shown to have been a possibility in any test, not just that it can be alleged. Big difference. Further, it is quite enough for me to show that Randi has the ability to unfairly get out of any test. He has great motive to do this and it would be incredibly naive to think he would not.



princhester wrote:
quote:
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Randi has had heavy access to the media. He is well known as an exposer of charlatans. He has considerable rhetoric. If he confidently proclaims that a claimant succeeded by fraud or by some other error in following protocol which he has shown to have been a possibility, I find it hard to see how he would lose any credibility.
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"You are steadfastly refusing to deal with or even mention my YB hypothetical, because you simply can't deal with it.


My response:
I did deal with your Yellow Bamboo hypothetical "fraud proof" test. Not in that paragraph but in the one before it:

"It is not my job to sit around and come up with hypothetical ways that fraud could have been shown to have taken place in well conducted experiments. That job is for the Randis and the Hansels of the world."

I now see that you disagree with Hyman and every other competent scientist and actually believe that there is a way to design 100% fraud proof experiments. This is an absurd position and I will discuss it below.



princhester wrote:
quote:
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What about this do you disagree with me about? Has your stance now become that Randi doesn't have the ability to dismiss tests which he feels didn't follow proper protocol? If so, then how did that change of mind come about? What information which I'm not aware of has caused that change?
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"I only ever agreed that in theory Randi can allege whatever he wants, in the same way any lunatic can allege that the moon is made of green cheese or that black is white. I have never agreed that Randi could do so credibly, or without loss of reputation, or in a court of law or that he could prove fraud in any test.

Taking an admission, expanding it, then pretending that the admission was wider than it was is the behaviour of a jerk. Bear that in mind."



My response:
Again, big difference between "allege" and "show possibilities". I think that maybe if you weren't so confused about that distinction you would have much less to find fault with and we could both be saved a lot of time.



princhester wrote:
quote:
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Do you disagree with me that there will always be a way for an experiment to be shown to have not followed proper protocol? Surely you know that you are not just disagreeing with me on this, right? You're also disagreeing with Hyman and every other scientist. So what is your stance?
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"Yes I do. How many more times am I going to have to say this before it gets through your dense skull?

I don't give a damn who I disagree with. And as for me disagreeing with "every other scientist" are you fantasising much? "


My response:
You're the one fantasizing if you think Hyman is wrong about this. I've already given you an example of how a secure, seemingly "fraud proof" experiment can be shown to have been "possibly" fraudulently successful. Find me one competent scientist who disagrees with Hyman on this. (Hint: You won't be able to.)


princhester wrote:
quote:
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Who is the one who decides then? Is your stance that it is supposed to be self evident? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and hold off believing that that's your position. Please explain to me who you think it is who decides whether a test followed protocol or not. I've asked you to state your position clearly before, you should comply.
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"Ultimately, given that there is a binding contract involved, it would be a court. However, given that the tests are usually pretty simple, and they can be documented to hell (see my YB hypothetical if you can bear to bring yourself to think about it) in the first instance it's usually going to be pretty easy to see if the protocol was followed. The important point is that if the protocol was followed but Randi says otherwise, it'll be up to him to prove that (ultimately in court) and unless the claimant has stupidly agreed to conduct an undocumented test, it'll be pretty damn hard for Randi to prove a breach of protocol if there wasn't one."


My response:
So you still do agree with me that Randi can "say otherwise" about whether a test followed protocol. I've already acknowledged many times that you think that if there is a dispute over his decision then it can go to court. How was I misrepresenting you?



princhester wrote:
quote:
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You seem to want to assume that if a claimant passes the preliminary test, he's a shoe in to pass the formal one and thus win the million. Based on the rules this is certainly not Randi's position, or there would be no preliminary test in the first place. You have done nothing, except assert that you practice law, to show that a claimant would be entitled to something he wouldn't be entitled to ordinarily.
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"No I've done more than that, I've provided you with two paragraphs explaining the legal position which you evidently are unable or unwilling to understand. If Randi refuses to go on, with an applicant who has passed the preliminary test, he is in breach of contract. It would be up to Randi to show why the applicant should not be entitled to damages of one million dollars due to Randi's refusal to go on with the formal test. Given that the only evidence at that time as to whether the applicant could or could not pass the formal test would be his passing of the preliminary, the applicant would get a million dollars worth of damages unless Randi could prove that the protocol was not followed in the preliminary.

I'll give you a simple example. Say you enter into a contract with me to come onto my property and chop down a tree, and if you do that OK then the next day you can chop down another tree on my property and we agree I'll then give you $5000. You come onto my property and chop down the first tree. I then refuse to go on with the contract, don't let you back onto my property the next day and say "you can't have the $5000 because you didn't chop down the second tree".

You sue. I say "but I bet even if I'd let you come onto the property you couldn't have chopped down the second tree, you couldn't have done it". The court would say "no way, princhester, you can't get out of payment by your own breach of contract in refusing to let him onto the property to chop down the second tree. And as to your allegation that he couldn't have chopped down the second tree, well all I have to go by is that he could chop down the first tree, so unless you can prove he didn't actually chop down the first tree, it's damages of $5000 to amherst, buster!"

You're dead wrong on this point, amherst, you've just put too much ego behind it to admit it."


My response:
Again, you still want to think that if a claimant succeeds in the "preliminary" test then it's all but a guarantee that he will be able to succeed in the "formal" one. Based on the contract which the claimant signs this is not Randi's position.

A more correct "tree analogy" would be to think of the claimant as someone who claims to be able to chop down gigantic trees with only a few strokes of his axe. The "preliminary" test would be to see if the claimant could chop down a pine tree in a few strokes. If the claimant succeeded in doing that then the real "formal" test would take place. This test would be to see if the claimant could, with a few strokes of his axe, chop down a giant, 300 foot high, four ton redwood tree. Even if one succeeds at the "preliminary" test, Randi's contract stated position is that it is still unlikely that he will succeed in the "formal" one. This is why there is a "preliminary" test in the first place. If it was a guarantee that a claimant would succeed in a "formal" test if he passed a "preliminary" one, then the "formal" test would be completely superfluous.


princhester wrote:
quote:
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If my interpretation was correct, then the claimant would be contractually agreeing that if he decided not to follow the rules, he would be seen as never having been a claimant at all. This would mean he could never sue Randi since Randi's agreement with him would be invalidated. If you believe my interpretation was incorrect then see my above response. Either way Randi can't be sued for the million.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



"It all ends up in the same place. For Randi to allege that the claimant never was a claimant because he didn't follow the rules, Randi first has to prove that the claimant didn't follow the rules. And we are back to square one, which is that for Randi to get out of a passed preliminary where the protocol was followed, it would be up to Randi to prove that the protocol was not followed."



My response:
See above


amherst
 
Amhearst
You're the one fantasizing if you think Hyman is wrong about this. I've already given you an example of how a secure, seemingly "fraud proof" experiment can be shown to have been "possibly" fraudulently successful. Find me one competent scientist who disagrees with Hyman on this. (Hint: You won't be able to.)
I missed your fraud proof experiment! Are you sure that you presented one?
I will reread your posts and see what you are talking about i hope it is not a bout the Pratt experiement because that was not fraud proof.

My challenge still stands Amhearst, you present a potential psi ability and then I will design a protocol to test it. Then you and I can discuss the potentail for the introduction of fraud.
That is if you can thinl of a potential psi event.

Find me one competent scientist who disagrees with Hyman on this.

That is your most outrageous statement, could you show me where this is a commonly held believe amongst scientists or is this just your personal axe to grind with Randi?
Fraud is eliminated through protocol and therefore methodology is vey important.
 
Shame on you Amhearst!

The Pierce -Pratt test was very flawed in sooooo many ways that it is a laugh to call it scientific.

Jacusse, you are a poseur. You could debate people. But if you can't even discuss the way that fraud could be introduced into a properly designed test then... well maybe you just don't think so good.

Do you accept my challenge?
 
I did a very brief google search on 'science fraud' and found out that I should have searched for 'science misconduct'

I found this interesting article about science and fraud: and guess what they aren't worried about the 'hypothetical' fraud, they are worried about real fraud.

B. Martin's paper here
Ask most scientists about scientific fraud and they will readily tell you what it is. The most extreme cases are obvious: manufacturing data and altering experimental results. Then there is plagiarism: using someone else's text or data without acknowledgement. More difficult are the borderline cases: minor fudging of data, reporting only the good results and not citing other people's work that should be given credit. Because obvious fraud is thought to be both rare and extremely serious, the normal idea is that it warrants serious penalties.
That is the usual picture, anyway, for public consumption. Probe a bit more deeply into scientific activities, and you will find that fraud is neither clear-cut nor rare. Stories abound of the stealing of credit for ideas. They range from the PhD supervisor who published his student's work under his own name, to the top scientist who, as a referee, delayed publication of a rival's work in order to obtain full credit for it himself -- including a Nobel Prize. There are also stories of various other forms of cheating.
 

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