The term “Cosmological Argument” actually refers to a diverse collection arguments, all of which start from claims about the Universe and attempt to reason back to the necessary existence of something purported to be God. I am going to argue that none of the deductive versions are particularly compelling, but that some sort of inductive cosmological argument might work.
Historically, the argument has had both temporal and non-temporal forms. For example, the Islamic philosopher al-Ghāzāli (1058-1111) argued that “everything that begins to exist requires a cause of its beginning.”1 This particular version is known as the “kalām argument”. It no longer makes scientific sense to believe in a meaningful concept of “time before the Universe.” For example, people are likely to argue that the idea of a “pre-Universal” time is incoherent, on the grounds that time is either a condition of human cognition or that time is a property of the physical Universe, following Kant and Einstein respectively. In both cases the question “What happened before the big bang?” is rendered meaningless, and the argument from first temporal cause therefore fails since there need have been no temporal cause of the physical Universe. This problem had been anticipated before Kant, and it is possible to replace the temporal (or horizontal) cause with sustaining (or vertical) cause. In other words, we would be talking about an ongoing cause rather than a mere trigger.
The atemporal versions of the cosmological argument largely depend on one apparently undeniable fact about existence: Nothing whatsoever can arise out of a state of absolute nothingness. Provided one accepts this claim, I believe that some form of the cosmological argument is bound to go through, although precisely what conclusions one draws from the validity of the argument is another question entirely. The cosmological argument on its own can never succeed in proving the existence of anything resembling the God of western theism. Indeed a comparative survey of religions would be likely to suggest we would be attempting to prove the existence something more like the Hindu “Brahman”, which could arguably be claimed to be a direct translation of “Necessary Being”, although it is usually translated as something like “the Unmanifest Being of God” or more literally “that from which everything grows”. Further arguments would be required to establish the existence of an entity with the extended set of properties usually allocated to God, but these would be likely to take the definition of God away from a concept which is common to most (maybe all) religions (absolute being) and towards a concept which is much more specific to a particular religious system, a move which may not be a particularly helpful at this point in time.
The main atemporal version of the cosmological argument is the deductive argument from contingency, which originated with Aquinas. It holds that everything that everything in the physical Universe only exists contingently, i.e. not necessarily. It then claims that these contingent things must ultimately depend upon something which exists necessarily. It can be summarised as follows:
1. Contingent things exist.
2. These contingent things must have a cause or explanation.
3. The cause or explanation the existence of these contingent things must either be solely other contingent things or include a necessary thing/being.
4. Contingent things alone cannot cause or explain the existence of all contingent things.
5. Therefore, what causes or explains the existence of the contingent things must include a necessary being.
6. Therefore, a necessary being exists.
There are many objections. Russell claimed that the Universe “just is”. This objection relies on claiming that just because the individual parts of the Universe have a property (contingency), it does not follow that the Universe as a whole has that property. A wall is composed of bricks, and is itself made of brick – but while a proton is composed of quarks, we cannot say it is “made of quark”. Quarks just don’t share the properties of protons in the same way that the brick of the brick wall shares the properties of the brick of the individual bricks. I think Russell has a good case. We currently have no idea what we mean when we talk about “the whole of the Universe.” For example, we have no idea whether the Universe has or hasn’t got a boundary. We do not know whether it is finite, infinite or finite but potentially infinite. The standard model of particle physics is currently in crisis following the discovery that neutrinos have mass, something which is ruled out by current theories of gravity, adding to the problems caused by the ongoing failure to find the Higgs boson, which is supposed to carry it. In other words, we simply do not have the cosmological facts to start reasoning from. All we have is guesswork and theories which are looking increasingly vulnerable – and were our theories of gravity/mass change then it may well change our understanding about the properties of the Universe as a whole.
This becomes clearer with an examination of Hume’s objection: An explanation of all the parts is an explanation of the whole. This objection is largely self-explanatory. Perhaps an explanation of the whole requires nothing more than an explanation of all the parts in terms of all the other parts. If X explains Y, Y explains Z, and Z explains X, is anything more required for a complete explanation of the set of {X,Y,Z}? William Rowe1 argues that even if each part is explained by another part, there is still no explanation for the whole. At first glance, this response seems reasonable, but there is at least one weakness. It can be exposed by highlighting one particularly intriguing suggestion as to how Rowe’s objection could be deflected, as described by Brighton-based nihilist/transhumanist David Pearce. His suggestion (called “The Zero Ontology”) is that all of the components, taken together, add up to precisely Zero leaving “nothing to explain”:
“…the totality of the real, "substantial" world (the world of physical things) is ultimately indistinguishable from the void. That is, the substance of the world as a whole is identical with nothingness, and reality is interpreted as the realisation of Zero.”
If something like Pearce’s suggestion is true, then Hume’s objection would have been vindicated – and I believe that the cosmological evidence invoked does indeed support Pearce – a suggestion supported by people like Victor Stenger3, who has described the Universe as “the ultimate free lunch”. If all of the potential gravitational energy in the Universe exactly cancels out all of the matter and energy then we are left with the an equation which reads something like “1 + -1 = 0”, where “0” is considered to be in need of no explanation. Arguments like these threaten to kill off the cosmological argument before it has even got started. It is for this reason that our lack of a proper understanding of the mass and extent of the Universe and our unstable theories of gravity and mass are of critical importance. We simply do not possess reliable enough cosmological data or stable enough theoretical explanations to be able to say whether Pearce’s suggestion is correct, regardless of the fact that cosmologists have spent the past 100 years trying to provide this information. Therefore we cannot know whether the totality of the parts adds up to precisely nothing.
There is another famous objection, which should be mentioned. Kant claimed that the cosmological argument critically depends on the ontological argument, which fails. Kant claimed that the cosmological argument is dependent on the ontological argument. This objection is based on confusion about the meaning of “necessary being”. Kant is referring to logically necessary existence, which would make this a version of the ontological argument, which Kant had already undermined. But the Cosmological argument refers to metaphysical necessity rather than logical necessity. A necessary being is one that if it exists, it cannot cease to exist, and if it does not exist then it will never exist. It is a being which cannot come into existence. So Kant’s objection can be safely ignored.
In conclusion, I believe that no deductive form of the cosmological argument is likely to be convincing, a position which is shared by the majority of commentators, both theist and atheist.