So What Happens If the GOP Wins the U.S. House?

[The Charnel Expanse]

See: 1995-2001

 

[GreNME]

Yeah, this last point is particularly important. While it may be nice red meat for the hardcore conservative base, the rest of the electorate will view the GOP pretty dimly if they go the "shut down the government" route again. I hope the Republicans learned their lesson from 95/96.

With the common GOP meme being "try to label Barack Obama as the most socialist president EVAR" at this time, my guess is that hindsight is something a lot of these folks are lacking (unless it's in the Bible or a Goldwater publication).

 

[Grizzly Bear]

IMHO while I'd like the republican party to win because they profess ideology I believe in, I think I'm being asked to choose between walking into a den of starving lions and the den with a raging fire pit. I either get eaten or I get cremated... The choices are oh so appealing...

 

[Travis]

The GOP will do everything they can to keep the economy lousy (done under the banner of "lessening the debt") and as many people unemployed as possible. Then in 2012 they can claim that Obama has obviously "failed" and that whoever they endorse should replace him. "Reducation camps" for non-Christians and homosexuals would follow.

 

[willhaven]

If the Republicans want to actually get some things done, they will now be in a better position to negotiate and barter with the Democratic Senate & White House and get substantial legislation passed with their names on it. Then they can go into the 2012 elections letting voters know that their party can actually do something constructive across the isle.

HAHAHAHA

If the GOP wins the House, we could see a repeat of the Clinton years, where frivolous investigation after frivolous investigation was launched in order to make the White House look as politically bad as possible. This was largely nothing more than fodder for the hardcore partisans, and it was mostly just a big waste of time which came back to bite the GOP in the next election.

Something in this vein, though probably just more obstructionism than outright attacks.

In addition, the Republican House could basically refuse to bring up any legislation coming through the Democratic Senate (or vice versa) and we could be back to the days of gridlock in Washington DC. For the GOP, this would be good in the sense that they'd be playing to their base, but as a wider strategy it wouldn't look good to more moderate & centrist voters where the Republicans could be reprimanded in 2012.

This is where we currently stand. The reason passage of unemployment benefits was watered-down and took 60 votes is because the Republicans are filibustering a lot of important legislation.

 

[Travis]

Most of my previous post was serious. Just to let everyone know.

 

[PixyMisa]

Rocks fall, everybody dies?

We can hope.

 

[Meadmaker]

Serioulsy, if the GOP wins the House, they will feel as if they have a mandate, and they will simply not pass new programs. The result will be an end to a great deal of spending. The stimulus programs simply will not continue. There will almost certainly be at least one "government shutdown".

Meanwhile, if new tax legislation is not passed before the elections, they will not compromise with the Democrats on a tax increase. The lame duck Democrats will not be overly inclined to ram one through over GOP objections. The result will be that the Bush tax bill expires and everyone gets a tax hike.

Higher taxes. Lower spending. Lower deficits. The effect on the economy? Difficult to say. Economists can never agree on this sort of thing. Lots of people will predict gloom and doom. If it goes bad, everyone will say it's the other guys' fault. If it goes well, everyone will take the credit.

 

[Chaos]

Higher taxes. Lower spending. Lower deficits. The effect on the economy? Difficult to say. Economists can never agree on this sort of thing. Lots of people will predict gloom and doom. If it goes bad, everyone will say it's the other guys' fault. If it goes well, everyone will take the credit.

Lots of people always predict gloom and doom.

 

[Captain.Sassy]

2. Palin wins in 2012.

we all wins.

 

[Frank Newgent]

Palin. Because Bush wasn't stupid enough.

 

[Captain.Sassy]

I can see Russia.

 

[dudalb]

Serioulsy, if the GOP wins the House, they will feel as if they have a mandate, and they will simply not pass new programs. The result will be an end to a great deal of spending. The stimulus programs simply will not continue. There will almost certainly be at least one "government shutdown".

Meanwhile, if new tax legislation is not passed before the elections, they will not compromise with the Democrats on a tax increase. The lame duck Democrats will not be overly inclined to ram one through over GOP objections. The result will be that the Bush tax bill expires and everyone gets a tax hike.

Higher taxes. Lower spending. Lower deficits. The effect on the economy? Difficult to say. Economists can never agree on this sort of thing. Lots of people will predict gloom and doom. If it goes bad, everyone will say it's the other guys' fault. If it goes well, everyone will take the credit.

That is assuming that the GOP is serious about cutting the deficit. A lot of the GOPers will change their minds about spending when they begin to hear from their consituents. People are always in favor of slashing Government spending...except for the spending they like.
Also, I think the number of militant teabaggers who will be coming into the House will not be that great. It is more a case of the GOP trying to exploit Tea Party anger to favor the GOP then the GOP actually being taken over the Baggers.

 

[KingMerv00]

The electorate will continue to hate Congress. Bunch of no-good whiners. Nothing makes them happy.

 

[Meadmaker]

That is assuming that the GOP is serious about cutting the deficit.

They aren't serious about cutting the deficit. They just won't be able to do anything, and neither will the Dems. Every dollar spent has to be authorized by Congress, and they won't authorize anything they think is either
a) a bad idea or
b) a good idea for which the credit will go to Obama.

That pretty much cuts out everything. For practical purposes, they'll have to pass something to keep things like social security checks rolling and army paychecks going, but with gridlock, it's really hard to have anything new.

That's pretty much what happend in 1994-2000, and that's when the budget got balanced. Of course, in 2000, everything went to hell in a handcart when the GOP gained full control.

 

[geni]

They aren't serious about cutting the deficit. They just won't be able to do anything, and neither will the Dems. Every dollar spent has to be authorized by Congress, and they won't authorize anything they think is either
a) a bad idea or
b) a good idea for which the credit will go to Obama.

That pretty much cuts out everything. For practical purposes, they'll have to pass something to keep things like social security checks rolling and army paychecks going, but with gridlock, it's really hard to have anything new.

That's pretty much what happend in 1994-2000, and that's when the budget got balanced. Of course, in 2000, everything went to hell in a handcart when the GOP gained full control.

I'd argue that pork barreling techniques have advanced since that time. Quite a bit of stuff could get passed on that basis.

 

[dudalb]

The electorate will continue to hate Congress. Bunch of no-good whiners. Nothing makes them happy.

If the GOP does get the House back, I give a very high chance to them overplaying their hand just as they did back in 95/96.

 

[SezMe]

That is assuming that the GOP is serious about cutting the deficit. A lot of the GOPers will change their minds about spending when they begin to hear from their consituents.

Just so. Raging against deficit spending is great political theater but wholly a different matter when you have the majority. The elephants have NO demonstrable commitment to reducing the deficit. The Dems are much better, either.

 

[Meadmaker]

I'd argue that pork barreling techniques have advanced since that time. Quite a bit of stuff could get passed on that basis.

Pork barreling was invented back in the days when pork was stored in barrels. They haven't made any significant modifications to it in the last decade.

They found a way in the '90s, but maybe not quite as much and managed to balance the budget. I wouldn't expect such good results this time, though. The economy is still in one heck of a mess, and the deficit is much larger.

 

[SezMe]

Just so. Raging against deficit spending is great political theater but wholly a different matter when you have the majority. The elephants have NO demonstrable commitment to reducing the deficit. The Dems are not much better, either.

Fixed that for myself.