So What Happens If the GOP Wins the U.S. House?

[MattusMaximus]

Okay, projection & speculation time...

So what happens if the Republican party retakes the U.S. House in November? Since this now appears to be a distinct possibility, as outlined by various prediction markets, I shall briefly share my thoughts:

1. It's NOT November yet: It's not a done deal, by any stretch, that this will happen. Some on the right are licking their chops as if it's already happened, and some on the left are wringing their hands in dismay - news flash folks: there's still over 3+ months until Election Day 2010. Get out there & fight for your party, and let the chips fall where they may - complacency is a killer.

2. Best-Case Scenario: If the GOP retakes the House, this could actually be a good thing. If the Republicans want to actually get some things done, they will now be in a better position to negotiate and barter with the Democratic Senate & White House and get substantial legislation passed with their names on it. Then they can go into the 2012 elections letting voters know that their party can actually do something constructive across the isle.

This could also be good for Obama & the Dems, because it would force a certain measure of bipartisanship upon them. The electorate likes bipartisanship, and if they work reasonably well with the GOP-run House, then everybody looks good. A high tide raises all boats.

3. Worst-Case Scenario: If the GOP wins the House, we could see a repeat of the Clinton years, where frivolous investigation after frivolous investigation was launched in order to make the White House look as politically bad as possible. This was largely nothing more than fodder for the hardcore partisans, and it was mostly just a big waste of time which came back to bite the GOP in the next election.

In addition, the Republican House could basically refuse to bring up any legislation coming through the Democratic Senate (or vice versa) and we could be back to the days of gridlock in Washington DC. For the GOP, this would be good in the sense that they'd be playing to their base, but as a wider strategy it wouldn't look good to more moderate & centrist voters where the Republicans could be reprimanded in 2012. Of course, the Dems could also make the same mistake in reverse.

Any other thoughts?

 

[Shalamar]

Rocks fall, everybody dies?

 

[dudalb]

I look for some on the progressive side to have a total meltdown since they thought the GOP was dead.
I am really afraid that the worst case scenario listed above will happen.

 

[Random]

2. Best-Case Scenario: If the GOP retakes the House, this could actually be a good thing. If the Republicans want to actually get some things done, they will now be in a better position to negotiate and barter with the Democratic Senate & White House and get substantial legislation passed with their names on it. Then they can go into the 2012 elections letting voters know that their party can actually do something constructive across the isle.

This will not happen. A significant portion of GOP political capital is tied up in the idea that the government can’t do anything right. It’s a simple message that resonates with the voters and helps win elections, but it means that accomplishing anything useful actually hurts the GOP. They believe government is hopelessly incompetent and will prove it if giving the chance.

 

[DavidJames]

A significant portion of GOP political capital is tied up in the idea that the government can’t do anything right. It’s a simple message that resonates with the voters and helps win elections, but it means that accomplishing anything useful actually hurts the GOP. They believe government is hopelessly incompetent and will prove it if giving the chance.

The delicious irony of this is those that got elected saying government is hopelessly incompetent are then part, and contributors to, the hopeless incompetence.

An irony which will be totally lost on those elected and those that elected them.

Then, next election the fickle (read idiot) voters who elected them will turn on them and elect a new set of incompetents to be.

edit.

I am really afraid that the worst case scenario listed above will happen.

I suspect you are right. The out of power party of no will become in power party of witch hunts.

 

[Newtons Bit]

Dogs and cats living together, MASS HILARITY.

 

[Meadmaker]

Gridlock.

Which worked really well last time.

 

[Paranormal Inquirer]

I'm guessing it'll be a similar situation to when Bill Clinton was in office after the Republican Revolution of '94.

 

[T.A.M.]

1. The current gridlock will seem like NASCAR.
2. Palin wins in 2012.
3. the four horsemen ride.
4. Bye.

TAM

 

[corplinx]

If they win, they vote for slightly less deficit spending for the first year, then stand in front of a mission accomplished banner paid for with deficit spending.

 

[SezMe]

Well said, corp.

 

[SezMe]

I am really afraid that the worst case scenario listed above will happen.

It's already been promised.

 

[DJW]

If the Republicans win the house, it will make for an interesting lame duck session.

 

[applecorped]

If?

 

[SezMe]

If?

Yes, If. Nothing is certain in politics. Especially prognostications about an election 3 months away. That's a lifetime in electoral politics.

 

[Cobalt]

This forum will become a ********* of activity, with the exaggerated claims of the "death of the Dems" to follow.

 

[MattusMaximus]

If they win, they vote for slightly less deficit spending for the first year, then stand in front of a mission accomplished banner paid for with deficit spending.

lolz

 

[dudalb]

1. The current gridlock will seem like NASCAR.
2. Palin wins in 2012.
3. the four horsemen ride.
4. Bye.

TAM

Paranoid, much?

 

[dudalb]

I'm guessing it'll be a similar situation to when Bill Clinton was in office after the Republican Revolution of '94.

Except with the Senate, the Dems will be in a somewhat stronger position.
And the GOP Margin is likely to be smaller then in 1994.
And the GOP is already talking about "shutting down the Government" again as a tactic. That really worked great for the GOP in 1995/96.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Except with the Senate, the Dems will be in a somewhat stronger position.
And the GOP Margin is likely to be smaller then in 1994.
And the GOP is already talking about "shutting down the Government" again as a tactic. That really worked great for the GOP in 1995/96.

Yeah, this last point is particularly important. While it may be nice red meat for the hardcore conservative base, the rest of the electorate will view the GOP pretty dimly if they go the "shut down the government" route again. I hope the Republicans learned their lesson from 95/96.