You do realise that conviction for a crime has absolutely nothing to with any putative sentence associated with that crime, don't you? That instead, conviction for a crime is solely and exclusively concerned with whether the trier(s) of the crime believe that there's sufficient evidence to prove the defendant's guilt beyond a reasonable doubt?
Actually, there is some evidence that a jury is more likely to convict if the sentence is likely to be lighter. Whether that applies in this particular case is a different matter.
Logically, you are correct, but that is ignoring the way humans actually behave.