Romney on intrade

[remirol]

Yeah, it's hard to tell. With the greater press Intrade has been getting this election, it could even be someone trying to manipulate the market in lieu of making a similarly large campaign donation.

Possibly, but I would expect such a person to be buying Romney well above his highest-traded price in order to artificially inflate his value.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Possibly, but I would expect such a person to be buying Romney well above his highest-traded price in order to artificially inflate his value.

Well it did do that in the very short term. Enough to convince Neally anyway.

 

[Alferd_Packer]

this stundie level comment was post over at intrade the other day

If an event has a 3 in 4 chance of happening, it must NOT happen 1 in 4 times, or your prediction was off.

If I had a model that predicted the winner with 70% certainty for 10 presidential elections, and the winner I predicted actually won 10 out of 10 times, I'd have a crappy model. My predicted winner should lose 3 out of 10 times.

 

[remirol]

Lot of shares moving around at Intrade yesterday and today. Too soon to tell much about any fresh trend, but there's definitely been a lot of volume.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Lot of shares moving around at Intrade yesterday and today. Too soon to tell much about any fresh trend, but there's definitely been a lot of volume.

I wonder if power outtages in the East Coast will have a delayed effect on market swings?

 

[remirol]

I wonder if power outtages in the East Coast will have a delayed effect on market swings?

Uncertain, but there were nearly 80k total traded yesterday and for the past 2 weeks it's been bouncing up and down under 60k, mostly under 40k. But so far today it's at 43390 total as of "right now" and that will surely rise.

Somethin' goin' down; I wonder what.

 

[dudalb]

It is fluctating but the overall trend is down for Romney.

 

[ProbeX]

Obama is currently at 66.3%.

 

[RandFan]

Obama is currently at 66.3%.

66.4% but who is counting?

 

[RandFan]

68.3%

 

[maxpower1227]

Whoa. Almost to 70%. What's going on here?

 

[remirol]

Whoa. Almost to 70%. What's going on here?

It will be interesting to see if the people who bought Romney and/or sold short on Obama start a market run at some point, and if so when. I would generally say November 5th would be the earliest possible time that would happen (desperation holdout) but we might see rats jumping off the ship earlier to try to get in while the price is still tolerable.

Christie openly thanking Obama started this one, I suspect. We'll see if it levels out, but the volume of shares traded (>70k right now) suggests that there's possibly a lot of bailout going on.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Romney's dropping like a stone on Intrade... currently 30.8% and sinking fast.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Whoa. Almost to 70%. What's going on here?

Within the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, people are seeing that President Obama is a real leader whereas Romney is just an empty suit.

 

[AdMan]

Within the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, people are seeing that President Obama is a real leader whereas Romney is just an empty suit.

I agree this is a big part of what is going on.

While Obama was with Gov. Christie viewing the damage in NJ today, Mitt was campaigning in FL.

 

[Tricky]

Within the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, people are seeing that President Obama is a real leader whereas Romney is just an empty suit.

In fairness, there's not a damn thing Romney can do by being there. But yeah, the President's rapid response and Christie's continuing endorsement of same is hurting Romney bad in the polls. I don't think this was the October Surprise that anyone expected.

 

[MattusMaximus]

In fairness, there's not a damn thing Romney can do by being there. But yeah, the President's rapid response and Christie's continuing endorsement of same is hurting Romney bad in the polls. I don't think this was the October Surprise that anyone expected.

There's a reason it's called a "surprise"

 

[RandFan]

In fairness, there's not a damn thing Romney can do by being there. But yeah, the President's rapid response and Christie's continuing endorsement of same is hurting Romney bad in the polls. I don't think this was the October Surprise that anyone expected.

There's a reason it's called a "surprise"

Gotta admit the man has a point.

 

[Tricky]

There's a reason it's called a "surprise"

Okay, let's just call it an "unknown" unknown.

 

[AdMan]

WaPo-ABC tracking poll: High marks for President Obama on Hurricane Sandy response

Nearly eight in 10 likely voters say the president has done an “excellent” or “good” job dealing with what’s been labeled a “super storm.” Almost as many give positive reviews to the federal government’s response generally. Even two-thirds of those who support Republican Mitt Romney in next week’s presidential election say Obama is doing well in this area.
<...>
The hurricane situation provided the president with a “commander-in-chief moment,” and a challenge to both candidates on the campaign the trail. When it comes to his response to the storm, Romney gets more positive than negative reviews, but a sizable 35 percent of likely voters responded that they had “no opinion” on the matter.