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Romney on intrade

Where will Romney bottom out on Intrade

  • 31-32%

    Votes: 6 14.0%

  • 30-31%

    Votes: 3 7.0%

  • 29-30%

    Votes: 4 9.3%

  • 27-29%

    Votes: 1 2.3%

  • 25-27%

    Votes: 4 9.3%

  • Less than 25%

    Votes: 25 58.1%
  • Total voters
    43
MattusMaximus said:
Aside: I've noticed that Intrade seems to pretty consistently have numbers worse for President Obama by about 5% and better for Romney by about the same as compared to the Iowa Electronic Market. Does anyone know why this might be?
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Not entirely sure how IEM works all in all, but my first guess would be InTrade's ability to resell shares you've already bought at a higher price, or buy back shares you've shorted to lock in gains. Given that it's not a "pick'em and done" market, there will always be a lot more volatility and swings.

I would be unsurprised if there wasn't a _huge_ flood of Romney shorters wanting to buy back the minute the first debate closed, along with a corresponding flood of new Obama shorters -- this is why InTrade reflected the initial bounce so rapidly, as people moved to make money "right now", and of course the price would drift correspondingly as the people on the other side of those trades could effectively pick and choose.

What we're seeing right now price-wise looks to be over-optimism from the Romney camp, as his bounce will surely recede; there are still plenty of people buying and selling both (with roughly a million-and-a-half shares traded each way). I suspect they're still hoping the trend line will regress towards where it was before the clear spike (http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/) for Obama, but it really isn't likely to happen.

Again, a great time to short Romney, IMO. There will be another cliff before the end of this as the polls converge and it becomes obvious that a temporary national poll spike doesn't translate into an Electoral College win.
 
remirol said:
Not entirely sure how IEM works all in all, but my first guess would be InTrade's ability to resell shares you've already bought at a higher price, or buy back shares you've shorted to lock in gains. Given that it's not a "pick'em and done" market, there will always be a lot more volatility and swings.

I would be unsurprised if there wasn't a _huge_ flood of Romney shorters wanting to buy back the minute the first debate closed, along with a corresponding flood of new Obama shorters -- this is why InTrade reflected the initial bounce so rapidly, as people moved to make money "right now", and of course the price would drift correspondingly as the people on the other side of those trades could effectively pick and choose.

What we're seeing right now price-wise looks to be over-optimism from the Romney camp, as his bounce will surely recede; there are still plenty of people buying and selling both (with roughly a million-and-a-half shares traded each way). I suspect they're still hoping the trend line will regress towards where it was before the clear spike (http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/) for Obama, but it really isn't likely to happen.

Again, a great time to short Romney, IMO. There will be another cliff before the end of this as the polls converge and it becomes obvious that a temporary national poll spike doesn't translate into an Electoral College win.
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Interesting analysis, thanks.

Looking at both IEM and Intrade now, it appears they are pretty much in sync. Perhaps all the shorting has finished?
 
Wow, its at like $5.90 / $4.10 now...

I thought Romney would drop after last night's debate, but he went up!


ETA: 30 to 40 cent change in one day today (Friday)
 
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Bumping this so there's a more appropriate place for the InTrade discussion after today's closing price gets posted.
 
NoahFence said:
Etrade trades actual stocks, do they not?
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Which I think was Joe's point.... at the end of the day "actual stocks" are just bets as well... right? "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results"... that is the motto of the whole investment industry, I don't see much difference here.
 
wiki said:
Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods. Typically, the outcome of the wager is evident within a short period.
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From the perspective of the investor and gambler I think there is no difference. The intent is to make money by wagering on a hoped for outcome. However, there is an underlying purpose behind stocks and futures which is to further commerce. At least that's how it seems to me in super simplified form.
 
Bloody hell, signed up when I saw the price for Obama was around $5.50. But by the time they approved my ID etc the price has jumped to $6.20. Not worth the trouble now, as it's the same as using a gambling site in Australia.
 
The Intrade numbers have been doing yoyo's the past 24 hours. :eye-poppi

Generally trending down. I think people put a great deal of stock into news cycles, and this one hasn't been kind to Romney/Ryan.
 
SkepticalDrew said:
The Intrade numbers have been doing yoyo's the past 24 hours. :eye-poppi

Generally trending down. I think people put a great deal of stock into news cycles, and this one hasn't been kind to Romney/Ryan.
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I'm not too familiar with how intrade works or what accounts for their seemingly schizo fluctuations in the last 24 hours, but the new swing state polls released today in Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia certainly didn't help Romney.
 
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