Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

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Applecorped? Neally? Any comments?
 
Silver on The Daily Show made a very revealing comment. He essentially used meta-analysis tactics. While each state poll might have had a margin of error, all of the errors wouldn't be expected to trend in the same direction and they did, in Obama's favor. At least that's what I think he was saying.
 
The most interesting thing I got out of this is that the Democrats seem to have done away with the spin. If your target is to win, you should want accurate data so you know what your ACTUAL chances are. I mentally took a few points off of Obama's rankings by PPP because of their party affiliation.
 
It's official, Obama took Florida.

ETA: Ok, not official,... the Dems have claimed victory & the Reps have conceded but it's not official...Damn, Damn, Damn!
 
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Foolmewunz said:
The most interesting thing I got out of this is that the Democrats seem to have done away with the spin. If your target is to win, you should want accurate data so you know what your ACTUAL chances are. I mentally took a few points off of Obama's rankings by PPP because of their party affiliation.
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And consider what role that may have had in misleading the other side...
 
Nate grades the pollsters

Gallup finished worst of the bunch in terms of accuracy (23rd out of 23 pollsters). Rasmussen was 20th out of 23 in accuracy. Internet-based polls such as Google Consumer Surveys did surprisingly well (2nd out of 23). For some reason Fox News isn't on his list, but maybe the polling firm they used is? Anyone know which firm they used for their polls?
 
Puppycow said:
Nate grades the pollsters

Gallup finished worst of the bunch in terms of accuracy (23rd out of 23 pollsters). Rasmussen was 20th out of 23 in accuracy. Internet-based polls such as Google Consumer Surveys did surprisingly well (2nd out of 23). For some reason Fox News isn't on his list, but maybe the polling firm they used is? Anyone know which firm they used for their polls?
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"The poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)."

from: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...race-for-white-house-dead-heat/#ixzz2BvIQungn

ETA: Clearly they were actually TRYING to be fair and balanced. I find that fascinating.
 
"However, it turned out that most polling firms underestimated Mr. Obama’s performance, so those that had what had seemed to be Democratic-leaning results were often closest to the final outcome."

:D
 
But..but...Neally insisted that Rasmussen was correct this election, based on their astonishing accuracy in previous elections. He actually laughed and mocked people who dared to say otherwise, right in this very thread!

How could this have happened?!
 
ANTPogo said:
But..but...Neally insisted that Rasmussen was correct this election, based on their astonishing accuracy in previous elections. He actually laughed and mocked people who dared to say otherwise, right in this very thread!

How could this have happened?!
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He wasn't the only one. After the movement in the polls following the first debate, a number of JREF posters were bold in there predictions that finally America was waking up and understanding the benefits of a Romney presidency. How one puts so much weight on such a small and interim bit of what could have been just statistical noise is beyond me. Well, except for one small thing, ego, see my sig file. Pride goeth before the fall.
 
BenBurch said:
I'm calling the election for Romney at this time.
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You know, I'd love to know if he was really ever serious about any of this.
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It's a good question. I honestly do not know. Just glad he was really inept when it comes to playing candidate and that he had no finesse whatsoever when it came to pandering. He just clearly said anything anyone wanted to hear.
 
RandFan said:
It's a good question. I honestly do not know. Just glad he was really inept when it comes to playing candidate and that he had no finesse whatsoever when it came to pandering. He just clearly said anything anyone wanted to hear.
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I think Ben meant mhaze, not Romney.

As a side note, I'm finding rereading this thread immensely entertaining.
 
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