Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

remirol said:
Already been explained to you above. They are a snapshot of current opinion, which can then be used as a forecast of what will happen if opinion doesn't change.
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And I already explained to you above. Opinions change daily, swinging back and forth. The opinions 4 months ago didn't forecast today's opinion, nor will they forecast opinions 30 days from now, because they don't forecast anything at all. Duh.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Do you have a link to polling on that highlighted point?
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http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/03/cnn-poll-romney-wins-debate-by-big-margin/

While nearly half of debate watchers said the showdown didn't make them more likely to vote for either candidate, 35% said the debate made them more likely to vote for Romney while only 18% said the faceoff made them more likely to vote to re-elect the president.
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I'd venture to say the 35% would be largely Republicans. So nearly 70% said the debates made no difference, even though they thought Romney won.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Reading comprehension is a good thing.
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Yes, it is. Go to InTrade, click on the graph of Obama's closing prices and adjust the time period to "Custom". Pick, say, 8 days, and you will see that the closing price as of October 2 (the day before the debate) was a little bit above 74. As of October 3, it was 74 exactly. It dropped immediately on October 4, to about 67, and has drifted steadily lower ever since. The current price is 62.6% as I write this.
 
RandFan said:
? Look, Romney could well win, but having screwed up nearly every other opportunity he had to make an impression what rational basis do you have for your boast? A single debate? Are you just talking smack?
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My read on the election has always been that Obama was in trouble. He couldn't let the election become a referendum on his first term. His only hope was to make the American public scared of Romney. And it seemed to be working. You yourself posted the link to Jon Stewart's bit about how Obama must be the luckiest man alive. Yeah, the point of that was about how Romney was screwing up his opportunities, but what's the underlying message? It's that Obama ought to be losing this election, but instead he was getting it handed to him on a silver platter.

Well, the silver platter got yanked away in Colorado. Romney got the big opportunity to make an impression directly to the American public and he made the most of it. Obama will have a hard time erasing that impression.

The polls have shown big swings to Romney. Pew Research shows Romney up four, while previously they had Obama up 8. That's twelve points. Daily Kos has a six-point swing.

So where did Romney gain? Among women, Obama went from a 15-point lead to a slimmer 51-45 edge. Meanwhile, Romney went from winning independents 44-41 to winning them 48-42. And just like the Ipsos poll showed last week, Romney further consolidated his base. They went from supporting him 85-13 last week, to 87-11 this week while Obama lost some Democrats, going from 88-9 last week, to 87-11 this week.
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I'm starting to think that Brainster is right: Hopey is in trouble. His administration played 'sore loser' after the first debate, and fewer and fewer seem to be buying what he is selling. The economy is still horrible and will not likely improve before elections, if anything it could get worse.


I think the last hope of the Obama Administration will be the second debate. Since Hopey has become such a pop culture icon, and since the crowd will be mostly liberal college students, there is a chance that Hopey could do well in that debate.
 
Brainster said:
Yes, it is. Go to InTrade, click on the graph of Obama's closing prices and adjust the time period to "Custom". Pick, say, 8 days, and you will see that the closing price as of October 2 (the day before the debate) was a little bit above 74. As of October 3, it was 74 exactly. It dropped immediately on October 4, to about 67, and has drifted steadily lower ever since. The current price is 62.6% as I write this.
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All true. However, the drop for Obama began before the debate, which kind of puts the kibosh on the whole idea of the movement being solely due to the debate, doesn't it?

Incidentally, at IEM the numbers have settled down and are fluctuating around 65-70% for Obama over the last few days. Same behavior as at Intrade, except Intrade is about 5% lower.
 
sir drinks-a-lot said:
I think the last hope of the Obama Administration will be the second debate. Since Hopey has become such a pop culture icon, and since the crowd will be mostly liberal college students, there is a chance that Hopey could do well in that debate.
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Giving yourself a "just in case" out already huh?

Good for you.

I will point out what has been mentioned NUMEROUS times in this and other threads. Looking at the historical numbers, no candidate has ever come from as far behind in the polls as Romney was before the first debate from the outcome of debates alone.

The debates are interesting from a character study but on the whole they don't mean a whole lot. In this case they might end up giving Romney 1 point back from his deficit going into the debates but I don't think it is going to matter all that much. In the end the debates might actually HURT Romney when the ads start coming out using his own statements he makes in the debates.
 
not_so_new said:
Giving yourself a "just in case" out already huh?

Good for you.

I will point out what has been mentioned NUMEROUS times in this and other threads. Looking at the historical numbers, no candidate has ever come from as far behind in the polls as Romney was before the first debate from the outcome of debates alone.

The debates are interesting from a character study but on the whole they don't mean a whole lot. In this case they might end up giving Romney 1 point back from his deficit going into the debates but I don't think it is going to matter all that much. In the end the debates might actually HURT Romney when the ads start coming out using his own statements he makes in the debates.
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Giving yourself a "just in case" out already huh?
 
sir drinks-a-lot said:
Giving yourself a "just in case" out already huh?
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Nope, not at all.

Statistics from previous election cycles are no guarantee of anything but they are a reasonably good predictor.

If I said "In this case they (the debates) WILL end up giving Romney 1 point back from his deficit going into the debates but I KNOW it isn't going to matter all that much." I would be lying.

I don't KNOW this, I am just using the data from previous election cycles to make a prediction. Anything else wouldn't be factual and I prefer to be factual.

You on the other hand used an assumption. Obama is going to be in font of his home crowd so if he does well it's only going to be because of the collage audience. There wasn't any mention of historical evidence but there was more than a hint of "left wing liberal media bias" scapegoating on your part.

If you were to back up your claims with data that showed a Democratic candidate consistently getting better marks in previous presidential debates that wouldn't sound like an out. You didn't do this however so your post sounds like you are setting up a "oh it was the lefty crowd" excuse.

That is completely different than the points in my post.... but nice try to divert the topic.
 
not_so_new said:
Nope, not at all.

Statistics from previous election cycles are no guarantee of anything but they are a reasonably good predictor.

If I said "In this case they (the debates) WILL end up giving Romney 1 point back from his deficit going into the debates but I KNOW it isn't going to matter all that much." I would be lying.

I don't KNOW this, I am just using the data from previous election cycles to make a prediction. Anything else wouldn't be factual and I prefer to be factual.

You on the other hand used an assumption. Obama is going to be in font of his home crowd so if he does well it's only going to be because of the collage audience. There wasn't any mention of historical evidence but there was more than a hint of "left wing liberal media bias" scapegoating on your part.

If you were to back up your claims with data that showed a Democratic candidate consistently getting better marks in previous presidential debates that wouldn't sound like an out. You didn't do this however so your post sounds like you are setting up a "oh it was the lefty crowd" excuse.

That is completely different than the points in my post.... but nice try to divert the topic.
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Your reading comprehension could use some work.
 
Brainster said:
My read on the election has always been that Obama was in trouble. He couldn't let the election become a referendum on his first term. His only hope was to make the American public scared of Romney. And it seemed to be working. You yourself posted the link to Jon Stewart's bit about how Obama must be the luckiest man alive. Yeah, the point of that was about how Romney was screwing up his opportunities, but what's the underlying message? It's that Obama ought to be losing this election, but instead he was getting it handed to him on a silver platter.

Well, the silver platter got yanked away in Colorado. Romney got the big opportunity to make an impression directly to the American public and he made the most of it. Obama will have a hard time erasing that impression.
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Confirmation bias and ad hoc rationalization. Seriously Brainster, that's all a load of BS and you know it. This is your Palin fevered dreams coming back to haunt you. Romney has been one of the very worst candidates in a long time. He's stiff, he's been caught lying over and over. He says idiotic things on a weekly to daily basis.

The polls have shown big swings to Romney. Pew Research shows Romney up four, while previously they had Obama up 8. That's twelve points. Daily Kos has a six-point swing.
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Looking at the long term chart it's very clear you are desperately trying finding meaning in a tiny slice of data.

rcp3.jpg


ETA: Chart is a day old and does not reflect the fact that Romney is now ahead. My apologies.
 
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RandFan said:
Just like Virus, he's not interested in a serious discussion.
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I see that... It's such a shame that we can't really have a serious discussion on the problems we face as a nation. Instead we spend our time defending entrenched positions. We are all guilty of it to some degree but it just feels like there is no gray areas with some people, it's all black or white.

Oh well, I believe I said this earlier in this very thread, we get the government we deserve so we will see how it all shakes out.
 
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