Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

BenBurch said:
Hey, it's obvious there is a gain for Romney, only time will tell how much of that sticks.
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If the aggregation of the most recent polling is accurate, then his gain is already starting to wear off. Which is what usually happens after the challenger gets a bump in a presidential debate over the incumbent.

I don't know why so many people are so surprised by any of this, folks. If you study the history and the evidence behind these debates, none of this should be surprising.

ETA: Incidentally, it also isn't that unusual for presidents to have trouble with their first debate as an incumbent.
 
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MattusMaximus said:
Don't rely too heavily on any one poll. Otherwise, you're making the same mistake as those who continually quote Rasmussen.

To me, after looking at some aggregated polling, it looks as if the post-debate bump that Romney got is now starting to settle down. He's in a better position than he was one week ago, but given where he was that isn't a big improvement in the long run. In addition, probably partly because of Friday's jobs report, it looks as if in many most recent (read: Sunday) polls President Obama is recovering. Nate Silver breaks it down here and here.

What I find most interesting is looking at Nate Silver's Electoral College map; it states that if the election were held today, Romney would have about a 51% chance of taking Florida, but when you look at the forecast for Nov. 6th President Obama has about a 51% chance of winning Florida. However, it's still not looking good for Romney in places like Iowa, Ohio, or Colorado (especially in Ohio). And without Ohio, I see little to no chance of Romney winning the EC.

Meanwhile, over at the markets...

IEM
Obama 70.1%
Romney 30.4%

Intrade
Obama 64.9%
Romney 35.1%

These are practically identical WTA numbers to what they were the day before the debate.
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True, but it also shows that Romney did not get a game changing bounce from his debate performance. My guess is that the good jobs report, the fact checking from his own campaign, and the assault on Big Bird were part off the reason why, but I also pointed out in the debate thread that even though many people said they thought Romney won the debate, they weren't more likely to vote for him because of it.

But Obama knows he blew it, and all indications point to a more focused and determined President in round 2.
 
Hmm, TV's reporting a tied Gallup poll after all. Oh well. People want to vote for the free pony lie, what do ya do?
 
I wonder how much it might matter whether the Green or Libertarian candidate is on the ballot in a given state? I notice the polls ask the question as between Obama, Romney, or other/don't know. (Seems to me "other" and "don't know" shouldn't be lumped!)

I think especially the "anybody but Obama" voters might not be aware that a Lib candidate is on the ballot until they see it. Then Romney won't be their only "not-Obama" option.

Any thoughts?
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Hmm, TV's reporting a tied Gallup poll after all. Oh well. People want to vote for the free pony lie, what do ya do?
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I think we'll see a couple of more days with it very very tight because of the post-debate mini bounce. But when samplings start coming out from this week, the jobs/unemployment figures will probably have negated that and we'll be back to Obama +3 to +5, on average. The core believers are all hyped up over at Fox, but they're not going to get a lot of converts. They hype the number of people who say Mitt won, but are rather quiet on "Would you be more likely to vote for ..." responses.

Very few were actually moved to change their vote, I believe. For whatever reasons, not self-identifying is a popular sport for Republicans. They like to say they're Independents. (In the spirit of your favorite peccadillo, should we now start referring to the Democrat Party, the Republic Party and "Those Independs".... (those in Depends, hyuk hyuk, get it, wink wink). I'm fairly sure the swayed voters were more than likely "leans Romney" anyway. There was no game-changer in that debate if you ask me.
 
I'm not too worried if Gallup is tied right now for several reasons.

Gallup has a strong Republican house effect.

National polls don't matter, it's the swing state polls that count.

There are two more debates.

There's been a lot of coverage of Romney's arithmetic problem since the debate.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Intrade
Obama 64.9%
Romney 35.1%

These are practically identical WTA numbers to what they were the day before the debate.
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Not true, as you can see if you look at Obama's chart at InTrade. He was closing in on 80% at the end of September, and now he's under 64% (63.1% as I write these words).

You're going to have to start whistling louder; the graveyard is coming up.
 
Brainster said:
Not true, as you can see if you look at Obama's chart at InTrade. He was closing in on 80% at the end of September, and now he's under 64% (63.1% as I write these words).

You're going to have to start whistling louder; the graveyard is coming up.
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? Look, Romney could well win, but having screwed up nearly every other opportunity he had to make an impression what rational basis do you have for your boast? A single debate? Are you just talking smack?
 
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RandFan said:
? Look, Romney could well win, but having screwed up nearly every other opportunity he had to make an impression what rational basis do you have for your boast? A single debate? Are you just talking smack?
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Perhaps you don't recall the things Brainster said four years ago.


Brainster said:
I'm thrilled. McCain just sucked the wind right out of Obama's sails.
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That was on selecting Palin as a running mate.

Also, this thread:
So Now We Know Why the Anti-Palin Effort Was So Desperate

Brainster's political analysis isn't particularly reality based.
 
Palin must now be considered the future of the Republican Party.
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BWAAAHAAHAHAAHAAAAA! A lesson that it's always, uh, wise to be very sure of what you wish for before you wish for it!
 
applecorped said:
Pew Research Center: http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

Likely voters: R - 49% O- $45%
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Some brief analysis

FTFA said:
The last thing to consider is that the fundamentals of the race aren’t consistent with a 4-point lead for Mr. Romney. Instead, the most recent economic numbers, and Mr. Obama’s approval ratings, would seem to point to an election in which he is the slight favorite. We don’t use approval ratings in our forecast, but we do use the economic data, and both the monthly payrolls report and the broader FiveThirtyEight economic index would point toward an election in which Mr. Obama is favored in the popular vote by around 2.5 percentage points.
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Neally said:
Well glad to see that you are walking back on your previous post supporting the speculation, with "the notion of them having an agenda isn't far-fetched" comment.
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No walk back. My comments are compatible, because i don't view the world in black and white.
 
Cleon said:
That reminds me of those useless statistics that sportscasters throw out when they don't know what else to talk about. "Freeman's 0 for 3 against a left-handed pitcher on windy days when the moon is in its third phase..."
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Woody "Sock 'Em" Hayes: "Statistics always reminds me of the feller who drowned in a river that had an average depth of 2 feet."
 
Unabogie said:
True, but it also shows that Romney did not get a game changing bounce from his debate performance. My guess is that the good jobs report, the fact checking from his own campaign, and the assault on Big Bird were part off the reason why, but I also pointed out in the debate thread that even though many people said they thought Romney won the debate, they weren't more likely to vote for him because of it.
But Obama knows he blew it, and all indications point to a more focused and determined President in round 2.
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Do you have a link to polling on that highlighted point?
 
Ahem... try reading what I actually WROTE...

MattusMaximus said:
Intrade
Obama 64.9%
Romney 35.1%

These are practically identical WTA numbers to what they were the day before the debate.
Click to expand...

Brainster said:
Not true, as you can see if you look at Obama's chart at InTrade. He was closing in on 80% at the end of September, and now he's under 64% (63.1% as I write these words).

You're going to have to start whistling louder; the graveyard is coming up.
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Reading comprehension is a good thing.
 
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