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Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Latinos strongly back Obama

A shift in Florida?

Most recent poll has Obama up by 4 in FL, where Romney had a slight edge a few weeks ago. Could just be regression to the previous norm, because Obama had the edge back in March and April. It's been back-and-forth in FL for a while now.

If the election were held tomorrow, I'd like Obama's chances in most of these swing states.
 
Puppycow said:
USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Latinos strongly back Obama

A shift in Florida?

Most recent poll has Obama up by 4 in FL, where Romney had a slight edge a few weeks ago. Could just be regression to the previous norm, because Obama had the edge back in March and April. It's been back-and-forth in FL for a while now.

If the election were held tomorrow, I'd like Obama's chances in most of these swing states.
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I think regression to norm. But that is a lot better than it being a measurable negative which I would have put money on.
 
NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Gaining Ground In Swing States

President Obama clings to a small lead nationally in a new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, leading Republican Mitt Romney 47 percent to 44 percent. The president’s advantage widens in the states typically considered up for grabs — Obama leads by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent) in a combined sample of voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

“Also in these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped, possibly reflecting the toll the negative Obama TV advertisements are having on the former Massachusetts governor in these battlegrounds,” MSNBC’s FirstRead blog wrote. Those attacks include a sustained critique of Romney’s time at Bain Capital, the private equity firm that he co-founded.
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Bizarre headline of the day, but interesting story:
Obama Tops Romney in Poll of Three Swing-State Voters

Didn't need that image in my head, and they really should poll more than three voters. ;)

But here's the substance:
President Barack Obama holds an edge over presumed Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the competitive states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, a Quinnipiac University poll shows.

Obama leads Romney by 9 percentage points in Ohio, 6 points in Pennsylvania and 4 points in Florida, according to the June 19-25 “swing-state” survey released today. Obama has gained ground in Ohio and Florida while his lead in Pennsylvania diminished slightly, compared with a Quinnipiac poll released on May 3.

The president’s move to stop deportations of some illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children helped win over voters, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.

. . .

The revised deportation policy Obama announced June 15 and his June 22 address to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials meeting in Lake Buena Vista, Florida -- following a Romney speech to the group the previous day -- boosted the president’s standing with Hispanics in that state, according to Quinnipiac poll data.

In a June 12-18 poll by Quinnipiac solely of Florida voters -- in which Obama also led by 4 percentage points -- the president had a 10-point edge over Romney among Hispanics surveyed, 49 percent to 39 percent. In the latest poll, Obama’s lead over Romney in this bloc has grown to 24 points, 56 percent to 32 percent.

. . .

Among all Florida voters in the new survey, 58 percent said they supported Obama’s immigration initiative, while 33 percent opposed it.

Voters in the other two states in the poll were also supportive, backing the policy 52 percent to 38 percent in Ohio and 51 percent to 41 percent in Pennsylvania.

. . .

The poll’s margin of error in each state is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,200 voters in Florida, 1,237 in Ohio and 1,252 in Pennsylvania.
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It's proved to be an even savvier political move than I originally thought. Especially beating Rubio to the punch on it. Romney is in a terrible pinch, hemming and hawing about whether he would reverse the policy or not.
 
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BenBurch said:
Correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first all-blue board I have seen here since Romney sewed it up. If GOP spending on attack ads continues at this pace, however, this is probably the last time.
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From FiveThirtyEight, if the election were held right now:

picture.php


The longer-term forecast remains 65% to 35%, but should increase slowly as more data gets added similar to the above.
 
BenBurch said:
From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Of note is the Fox News poll. Obama +5. Last time Fox polled, if I recall, they polled LV and got a result wildly in favor of Obama. This time they polled RV, and got Obama +5. Those guys just can't win. :-)
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BenBurch said:
From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first all-blue board I have seen here since Romney sewed it up. If GOP spending on attack ads continues at this pace, however, this is probably the last time.
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You can scroll down the page to see the earlier polls. The previous Fox News poll was a tie, but the one before that was Obama +7. The Fox News polls are of RV but the Rasmussen poll is LV. There's a stretch of 11 blue polls back in April and another of 12 further back starting in late January. The longest stretch of red polls is 4.
 
BenBurch said:
Another blue one just added. Obama at +3.9

Romney has to be wondering what went wrong.
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It's too early to tell but perhaps the decision by SCOTUS has given Obamacare some gravitas and people are wondering what will happen to their benefits if the law is repealed.
 
RandFan said:
It's too early to tell but perhaps the decision by SCOTUS has given Obamacare some gravitas and people are wondering what will happen to their benefits if the law is repealed.
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I agree. The ruling clearly put the wind at President Obama's back and has presented a big challenge for Romney, especially when the debates come up. I cannot wait to see the issue of health care reform come up in the debates, and President Obama can turn to Romney and say, flat out, "You got a better plan? What is it?" Then the onus is on Romney and the Republicans to address that question, rather than just rant and rail against "Obamacare" - the undecideds will be watching Romney's answer (or non-answer) closely, methinks.

Incidentally, since the ruling, President Obama is up at the Iowa Electronic Market and Romney is down. Same thing over at Intrade. Seems to dovetail with the aggregated polls over at RCP :)
 
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MattusMaximus said:
I agree. The ruling clearly put the wind at President Obama's back and has presented a big challenge for Romney, especially when the debates come up. I cannot wait to see the issue of health care reform come up in the debates, and President Obama can turn to Romney and say, flat out, "You got a better plan? What is it?" Then the onus is on Romney and the Republicans to address that question, rather than just rant and rail against "Obamacare" - the undecideds will be watching Romney's answer (or non-answer) closely, methinks.
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Which BTW raises the question, if Romney has a better plan why didn't he implement it in Massachusetts. Romney fought for and then defended that mandate.

Incidentally, since the ruling, President Obama is up at the Iowa Electronic Market and Romney is down. Same thing over at Intrade. Seems to dovetail with the aggregated polls over at RCP :)
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:)
 
The major potential hazard for Obama remains the economy. There are 4, maybe 5 more monthly unemployment reports to come before the election. After a strong start to the year, the last few have been getting progressively worse. If that trend continues, bad news.
 
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