Merged Recent climate observations disagreement with projections

From 2000-2009 would only add a couple pixels to the graph, you would barely even see it. The period past 1850 would be used for either calibration or validation so it can’t really differ from the proxy.
 
lomiller said:
From 2000-2009 would only add a couple pixels to the graph, you would barely even see it. The period past 1850 would be used for either calibration or validation so it can’t really differ from the proxy.
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It sounds like I am misusing their data then if I want to look at recent events.

Their work is intended more for historical context?

Am I near the mark?

:confused:
 
Sure. They're working on clarifying the last couple of thousand years.

The LIA and MWP are interesting to climatologists whether you believe they have significance for AGW or not.

[denier]Besides anything that proves Mann was speaking through an orifice not traditionally used for speech is good for me.[/denier]

:D
 
Wangler said:
It sounds like I am misusing their data then if I want to look at recent events.

Their work is intended more for historical context?

Am I near the mark?

:confused:
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Sediment data is naturally smoothed.

I wonder how this is approximated?
 
Wangler said:
It sounds like I am misusing their data then if I want to look at recent events.

Their work is intended more for historical context?

Am I near the mark?

:confused:
Click to expand...

Yeah, the purpose is to try and figure out what temperatures were like before there were instruments to measure them. To do this they take a proxy and compare it to part of the temperature record measured by instruments to assign meaning to the proxy. They then validate the proxy by comparing it to the unused part of the known record to confirm they can actually predict temperatures that were not part of the original derivation. (IOW they use it much like a control group)

If it can accurately “predict” the part of the temperature record they set aside as a control it’s assumed the proxy can also provide meaningful information about the period where no instrument measurement exists. If they can’t match this control to the measured temperatures they wouldn’t publish in the first place.
 
Meanwhile back in the real world

snip

Arctic reverses trend, is warmest in two millennia
Updated Fri. Sep. 4 2009 9:02 AM ET

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- The Arctic is warmer than it's been in 2,000 years, even though it should be cooling because of changes in the Earth's orbit that cause the region to get less direct sunlight.

Indeed, the Arctic had been cooling for nearly two millennia before reversing course in the last century and starting to warm as human activities added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

"If it hadn't been for the increase in human-produced greenhouse gases, summer temperatures in the Arctic should have cooled gradually over the last century," said Bette Otto-Bliesner, a National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist and co-author of a study of Arctic temperatures published in Friday's edition of the journal Science.

The most recent 10-year interval, 1999-2008, was the warmest of the last 2,000 years in the Arctic, according to the researchers led by Darrell S. Kaufman, a professor of geology and environmental science at Northern Arizona University.
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http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090904/arctic_warm_090904/20090904?hub=SciTech

fancy that...:garfield:
 
Remarkable....more down under data......

snip

Page last updated at 05:11 GMT, Thursday, 3 September 2009 06:11 UK

Australia's warm winter a record
By Phil Mercer
BBC News, Sydney

Australia has experienced its warmest August on record amid soaring winter temperatures.

Climatologists have blamed both the effects of climate change and natural variability.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says that August was a "most extraordinary month" with mean temperatures 2.47C above the long-term average.

August in Australia culminated in a record-breaking heat-wave across much of the continent.

In the Queensland town of Bedourie the temperature reached 38.5C.

Elsewhere, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have had their warmest winters on record.
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continues
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8235111.stm
 
and more

http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/09/03/australias-weird-winter/
Make it hot hot hot....as the song goes..:garfield:

IMG%5D
 
Yeah - that's the the Arctic dipole plus the fading La Nina - the whole midwest was cold and several records set in January for cold in both Russia and Canada.
The high that normally concentrates cold over the pole split into two and settled over both continents while the pole was relatively warm the mid continents went way into deep freeze.
Still lingers somewhat and the odd outcome was that the landmasses were relatively cooler than the oceans in June July and August when records were set of ocean temps world wide.

Overlays work in both direction...doesn't change the slow simmer of extra energy

Many changes going on in the Arctic
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
 
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I would have been surprised given the double La Nina influences....

This year tho the oceans are cooking....depends on how the heat pump plays out

I think there is so much warm Pacific water sweeping through the opening Arctic channels now that it's past the tipping point for any recovery of mulit-year ice.

There are already some Pacific species across in the North Atlantic...

I wonder if that sweep of Pacific water has some play in the Atlantic piling up on the East Coast of North America....2' feet above the norm and no particular explanation....

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090831_tides.html

snip
Further analysis is needed to fully understand what is driving the patterns we observed.”
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Indeed...2' is no small amount for lowlying areas as shown in the article.
 
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