Merged Recent climate observations disagreement with projections

Again I refer people to the seminal volume "How To Lie With Statistics" which will show what PT is attempting here for what it really is.

"Seminal" is the perfect word : I read it as a teenager and it has influenced my life no end. Not quite my introduction to critical thinking, but a large part of it.

Poptech isn't attempting anything, he's just repeating what works on him. There's zero chance of him realising it.
 
Fitting curves to observed data has been done for centuries. It is a serious and intensely researched area of mathematics and science.
You seem confused. This has nothing to do with data smoothing but adjusting a model so it matches the historical output.
 
Evidence of climate change is not evidence of AGW.

True.


Your point?

(Geological Survey of Norway)

Does it really say that? Less ice than when, and exactly where? And so what? 3-4 thousand years into this interglacial is not at all like 10-11 thousand years.


Is this just coincidence in your opinion? The first time for 6-7 thousand years and it justs happens to coincide with predictions from thirty years ago?

What are the chances of that happening?
 
Wait did I provide scientific evidence that does not support the alarmist belief? Of course you must question it and never question the alarmist position.
 
You seem confused. This has nothing to do with data smoothing but adjusting a model so it matches the historical output.
You seem confused. I did not mention data smoothing.

The paper has nothing to do with "adjusting a model". It is checking the validity of the IPCC TAR within the range of the observed data by fitting a curve to the observed data and noting that the curve is within the IPCC TAR predictions years in which the data was observed.
The concusion is that curves to the observed data up to 2006 and 2008 lie within the IPCC TAR predictions and so the climate models used are valid in that date range. This suggests that the IPCC TAR predictions will be correct for future years (but their accuracy will of course decrease for longer periods).
The IPCC TAR was done several years before the paper.
The IPCC TAR was not "adjusted" as a result of the paper.
 
Curve fitting has nothing to do with predicting anything, it is a mathematical exercise.
See my previous post.
Read the papers - the curve fitting uses observed data and stops at the last observed year (2006 for the first paper and 2008 for the second year). It has nothing to do with predicting anything. All the papers do is confirm the IPCC TAR predictions within the years that we have observed data.
 
I am stating that you don't know their position and cannot. All you can conclude is 300 or so scientists support that position. You also failed to realize that support of this position is on a widely varying scale and the alarmist position is not even in the majority of your random survey.

And according to the polls taken before last year's presidential election, only a few thousand people were planning on voting for Obama.

I can be reasonably confident because:
1) Every relevant scientific society in the world has taken the same position;
2) As far as I know, there have not been significant numbers of resignations or protests because of the AGU's stated position;
3) There are a number of surveys of climate scientists, all of which show that an overwhelming majority of climate scientists believe in AGW (even the one conducted by Roger Pielke, Sr.);
4) There are many more papers published in refereed journals that support AGW than that cast doubt on AGW;
5) I have friends that work in the field, from whom I can get a sense of what the general attitude of climate scientists is;
6) I have even attended a couple of AGU conferences, each of which had over 11,000 attendees, and was able to see and hear for myself what the prevailing opinion was (I even attended a talk by Prof. Gray - though it didn't have anything to do with climate change).

I am saying that no poll or vote was done so no conclusions can be drawn as such. Why don't you present some evidence to support your implications. You are attempting to imply that they do. I asked for proof, you failed to provide it.
See above.

Why don't you show me they do. No you are the one making the assertion that position statements by a handful of council members represents the opinion of the societies thousands of members. You have provided zero evidence for this claim. I have no idea what the position is because no vote or poll was taken. See alarmists like to pretend that the position statement = 50000 scientists support AGW when no such thing is proven. You could have a majority of 25001 scientists in support of AGW and 24999 opposed and still have a majority but that is hardly compelling. Sorry for not having your faith, I need evidence.
You don't need evidence. You don't want evidence. You just want excuses to rationalize your beliefs.

Some of it has to do with problems in the temperature record and it is not warming in Antarctica. You seem to be suggesting evidence of regional warming and not "global warming".
Whether or not it is warming in Antarctica is open to debate. It is known that the ice mass balance is decreasing. Antarctica is an anomaly because of the ozone hole, which reduces the heat emitted downward from the stratosphere, and the circumpolar vortex, which partially isolates the Antarctic atmosphere from the rest of the world.

As for the temperature record, no one has shown that there are any systematic biases in it.
 
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The paper has nothing to do with "adjusting a model".
I know this, you are not following the discussion and don't get it. I was talking about curve fitting in reference to "calibrating" models. I am not talking about data smoothing. This was a separate discussion Megalondon and I were having of which you jumped in not understanding the context.
 
Curve fitting has nothing to do with predicting anything, it is a mathematical exercise.

Accurate prediction has nothing to do with curve-fitting. Curve-fitting alone precludes accurate prediction. Which is the error you and yours have fallen into by making such an icon of the last decade, when the warming rate has slowed. Which was quite predictable. Not for this decade specifically, but for a decade or so.

So what are you going to say when warming picks up again? When the recent past no longer fits your desires? The scientific models will have no problem with that - it's only to be expected. But your sources are going to be stretched for an explanation when their own curve-fitting methodology no longer comes up with the goods.
 
See my previous post.
Read the papers - the curve fitting uses observed data and stops at the last observed year (2006 for the first paper and 2008 for the second year). It has nothing to do with predicting anything. All the papers do is confirm the IPCC TAR predictions within the years that we have observed data.

I have actually seen denialist comments that climate models are wrong because they failed to predict the coming cooling phase. The one that hasn't happened yet (and isn't going to).
 
I know this, you are not following the discussion and don't get it. I was talking about curve fitting in reference to "calibrating" models. I am not talking about data smoothing. This was a separate discussion Megalondon and I were having of which you jumped in not understanding the context.
Looking back I can see it was a mistake on your part. You pasted the same reply to both of us.
I was just talking about your "That is called curve fitting. Which is a total JOKE." remark.

So lets return to that single remark and see if we make any progress:
Are you serious about this remark? What actually is the JOKE?

Fitting curves to observed data has been done for centuries. It is a serious and intensely researched area of mathematics and science.

Curve fitting just happens to be the subject of the paper you based this thread on. If it is a JOKE then the paper is a JOKE and this thread is a JOKE. Does that make you the JOKER and if so where is BATMAN :) ?
 
Accurate prediction has nothing to do with curve-fitting.
Which is why the computer climate models are useless for prediction and always will be.

The scientific models will have no problem with that - it's only to be expected. But your sources are going to be stretched for an explanation when their own curve-fitting methodology no longer comes up with the goods.
Of course the models have no problem with anything, they can be changed to fit whatever "reality" you want since they are virtual AKA "not real".

My sources are showing the mathematical manipulations certain scientists are using to justify alarmism.
 
No it wasn't and I did no such thing.


Which was NOT made to you.


Model tuning is a joke.
You are right. If you want a to be pivate then talk via PM. This is a forum - anyone is free to ask you questions about your statements.

Where does "Model tuning" appear in your remark?
I was just talking about your "That is called curve fitting. Which is a total JOKE." remark.

So lets return to that single remark and see if we make any progress:
Are you serious about this remark? What actually is the JOKE?

Fitting curves to observed data has been done for centuries. It is a serious and intensely researched area of mathematics and science.

Curve fitting just happens to be the subject of the paper you based this thread on. If it is a JOKE then the paper is a JOKE and this thread is a JOKE. Does that make you the JOKER and if so where is BATMAN :) ?
 
This was a separate discussion Megalondon and I were having of which you jumped in not understanding the context.

You are wrong, we are not having a discussion. You are spreading lies and disinformation and I'm laughing at you.

Completely different thing...
 
I have actually seen denialist comments that climate models are wrong because they failed to predict the coming cooling phase. The one that hasn't happened yet (and isn't going to).

Maybe they'll shut up after the next El Niño...

:D Who am I kidding! These guys will be claiming the warming stopped well after Tamino's bet is settled and won.

Fortunately the world leaders seem to be getting up to speed on the science, although my optimism is cautious. Again, the next El Niño will probably make everyone revise their deadlines...
 
Where does "Model tuning" appear in your remark?
In relation to model calibration, I consider it an advanced exercise in curve fitting but since this is simply causing confusion due to the discussion of data smoothing, it is easier to call it "model tuning" - which is a Joke.
 

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