Merged Recent climate observations disagreement with projections

Name one automobile approved safe by the NHTSA based solely on computer models

I don't know of any, but I know of a number of aircraft engines that were certificated for use on passenger aircraft based upon simulations extrapolating from known engine performance.
 
Conspiracy theories aside, hindcasting against a validation period is a perfectly acceptable means of testing a computer model. There is also well documented predictions for events like the Pinitubo eruption. AS if that weren’t enough there are numerous examples where models and data disagreed, and it was later found that the data was in error. If you believe the conspiracy theories the modelers would have quietly changed the models to match the data but this didn’t happen.
 
I don't know of any, but I know of a number of aircraft engines that were certificated for use on passenger aircraft based upon simulations extrapolating from known engine performance.
And these engines were never real world tested before being put into passenger aircraft? Really?

Name one skyscraper that was crash-tested before they let customers in.
What does that mean? Skyscrapers were built before computer simulations.

...hindcasting against a validation period is a perfectly acceptable means of testing a computer model.
Actually no it is not, it is merely an exercise in model tuning.
 
Yes I will try to explain things more simply as well.

Virtual Reality = Not Real

What's your point? No one has claimed that models are a perfect representation of the real world.

Measurements of real world data are subject to error.For instance, weather balloons have a mean error in the range of 1 to 2 degC, depending on the model. There is also a limit to the precision with which any variable can be measure. Just because the thermometer in my office only reads to the nearest degF does not mean that the actual temperature in my office never has a fractional part of a degree. Therefore, by your "logic", all data are useless because they can never 100 percent accurate.

I don't know where virtual reality enters into this discussion. I'm not aware that any researcher has created a virtual reality system to study climate. It would be really cool if someone did.
 
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PT supplied this...
Mac, supplies the same propaganda.

Carl Wunsch said:
I am on record in a number of places complaining about the over-dramatization and unwarranted extrapolation of scientific facts. Thus the notion that the Gulf Stream would or could "shut off" or that with global warming Britain would go into a "new ice age" are either scientifically impossible or so unlikely as to threaten our credibility as a scientific discipline if we proclaim their reality.

The Science in The Great Global Warming Swindle (S. Fred Singer, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences)

The Great Global Warming Swindle is based on sound science and interviews with real climate scientists, including me. An Inconvenient Truth, on the other hand, is mostly an emotional presentation from a single politician.
 
What does that mean? Skyscrapers were built before computer simulations.

And how did they know how much steel and concrete to use? Did they build the skyscrapers and waited to see if they would fall down, at which point they re-built them with more steel and concrete?
 
I don't know of any, but I know of a number of aircraft engines that were certificated for use on passenger aircraft based upon simulations extrapolating from known engine performance.

I can certify to you that none of the current power reactors in operation were taken to coolant failure in testing to ensure that the emergency systems could cope.

One or two early small experimental reactors at Argonne West were tested to failure, and the Ft. St. Vrain HTGR (which was experimental even though it produced commercial power) was tested for performance under adiabatic cooling, but that's it.

The only real test ever was TMI.

It is all simulation.

Ditto all new H-bomb designs since the underground test ban.

All simulation.

All models.
 
Actually no it is not, it is merely an exercise in model tuning.


What proof do you have that climate modelers are using validation data for anything but validation? This is an accusation of scientific fraud and a massive scientific conspiracy on your part, which in my books counts as an extraordinary claim. You should either present your extraordinary proof its occurring or retract the accusation.
 
Skyscrapers were built before computer simulations.

Ridiculous, there are plenty of skyscrapers being built even today. Their construction did not stop with the the invention of the computer and computer simulation is an important, indeed required element in modern skyscraper design.
 
So I assume that you never trust calculators then, correct? :rolleyes:

I wonder what he would make of electrical engineering. Almost all the math consists of imaginary numbers, and as we all know, imajinary numbers are not real numbers
 
Gee, go away to TAM for a few days and all the global warming threads are all resolved more irrational that ever.

Expanding a bit on what BenBurch has indicated...Nuclear plants have numerous models/codes that are used and fortunately reflect reality. All of the accident analysis, plus ASME code required analysis and others. Some of the models/codes can be tested, but much of the design cannot be fully tested. Seismic codes are paramount --but, we have yet to pick up an entire plant and place it on a shaker table. (that would be such a cool test though) Core design is all based on codes, but we can test much of what happens there. However, the hot pin is based on a model and we certainly don't run any loss of coolant accidents or main steam line breaks. Many normal plant processes are based on code simulations. Of course we put a lot of them together and use these models to build simulators to train operators. Rumor has it that Boeing does the same thing with jets.

For TMI, it validated certain codes, but showed weakness in others. The amount of iodine released was much lower than expected and iodine scrubbers have been removed from plants now. However, zirc hydriding was not predicted and that was a big mistake. Now we have hydrogen recombiners. Overall, we were conseravtive.

Climate models will continue to be refined and compared with measurements...by the time they are fully validated, we should have alligators in the arctic.

glenn

Poptech: have you and mhaze ever been seen in the same place at the same time? mhaze has the same distrust/fear of models. I am sensing socks and puppets.
 
Um...can someone remind me here but in 1998-1999 weren't global warming disaster alarmists denying that El-Nino was the main cause of the spike in temperatures at the time? And today disaster alarmists are now claiming that El-Nino was responsible...

Maybe my memory is fuzzy but its kind of like Republicans attacking Democrats for trying to be the world police, then take power and several years later invade two whole countries...
 
Um...can someone remind me here but in 1998-1999 weren't global warming disaster alarmists denying that El-Nino was the main cause of the spike in temperatures at the time? And today disaster alarmists are now claiming that El-Nino was responsible...

Well, from the web search I have done, I see that contemporary opinions were that El-Nino would drive global temperatures to some extent...so I don't think they were denying.

However, opinions likely could change as understanding of ENSO and it's effects or it's dependence upon global conditions continues to improve.
 
I just swear I could remember the global warming skeptics/deniers saying the warming trend was El Nino and the other side saying it wasn't...

Maybe I am wrong, that is always a possibility. :P
 
I just swear I could remember the global warming skeptics/deniers saying the warming trend was El Nino and the other side saying it wasn't...

Maybe I am wrong, that is always a possibility. :P

Try to find a reference or two....
 

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