Quebec Separation

[Segnosaur]

Now, if Quebec leaves and decides it wants to continue using the Canadian dollar, I can see us changing to English-only banknotes simply out of spite....

I'd go further and start adding the portrait of Don Cheery to our bills, and the Toronto Maple Leaf logo on our coins.

(Not that I'm a fan of the Leafs, but I figure that would annoy Quebecers more than anything else.)

 

[D'rok]

I'd go further and start adding the portrait of Don Cheery to our bills, and the Toronto Maple Leaf logo on our coins.

(Not that I'm a fan of the Leafs, but I figure that would annoy Quebecers more than anything else.)

That would annoy everyone outside of the GTA more than anything else.

 

[drkitten]

Canadian trucking companies already have free access to travel through the US should Quebec choose not to participate in NAFTA.

Really? So if I want to ship canned grapefruit from Vancouver to Quebec via Detroit, US customs isn't going to even look at the truck to see whether or not I'm hauling cocaine or cases with Saudi terrorists inside?

Trusting souls, US customs.

 

[lomiller]

Really? So if I want to ship canned grapefruit from Vancouver to Quebec via Detroit, US customs isn't going to even look at the truck to see whether or not I'm hauling cocaine or cases with Saudi terrorists inside?

Trusting souls, US customs.

They may inspect it but the amount of time lost isn’t that great. Even now it’s not uncommon for Canadian trucks heading from western Canada to southern Ontario to take the southern route through the US.

 

[D'rok]

How many scientific papers were published in french last year? What percentage of major computer programs have their sourcecode anotated in french?

English is the language of science and technology and over time the cost of translation will become less acceptable.

Section 16(1) of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms:

16. (1) English and French are the official languages of Canada and have equality of status and equal rights and privileges as to their use in all institutions of the Parliament and government of Canada.

The Canadian government is constitutionally bound to bear the costs of translation. Any publicly funded science and research can be done in French.

 

[Segnosaur]

I expect the US would have a great deal to say if Quebec tried to shut off Great lakes access to the Atlantic and Canadian trucking companies already have free access to travel through the US should Quebec choose not to participate in NAFTA.

Nobody is suggesting that Quebec would totally shut off access (either by the St. Laurence Seaway, or by land.) But, any border control can cause delays and/or added expenses. Even if Canadian companies decide to ship their products through the U.S. rather than Quebec, they still have to contend with 2 border crossings.

Also, given the near 100% opposition First Nations have to being a part an independent Quebec I find it very unlikely Quebec an independent Quebec would actually cut off land access to the Maritimes.

Actually, the status of natives in Quebec is, to me, probably going to be the messiest part of any separation. Yes, first nations have strongly opposed Quebec independence. But many of the leaders of the separatist movement have claimed that Quebec is 'indivisible'. Furthermore, the natives could claim very very large areas of northern Quebec, and I doubt Quebec would be willing to give up the hydro-electric potential of the area.

Frankly, I have no idea how it will be resolved. Unlike (for example) negotiations on the debt or public assets, its not as easy for 2 parties to really meet in the middle.

 

[geni]

Section 16(1) of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms:

16. (1) English and French are the official languages of Canada and have equality of status and equal rights and privileges as to their use in all institutions of the Parliament and government of Canada.

The Canadian government is constitutionally bound to bear the costs of translation. Any publicly funded science and research can be done in French.

Not meaningfuly. The papers you work from will be in english as will your other documentation. If you want your paper to be read you will publish it in english. If you want to discuss you work with people outside you imediate team you will again tend to use english.

Constitutions can be changed and with ever increaseing bulks of goverment documents costs increaseingly become prohibative.

 

[Segnosaur]

They may inspect it but the amount of time lost isn’t that great.

It all depends on the time of day...

There are web sites available where you can look up the expected border delays at any point in time. Right now (around 4pm on a Thursday), many border crossings have no delay, but some have delays anywhere from 15 minutes to almost an hour. (And that's just the delay from the time you arrive until the time you reach the front of the queue... doesn't count the time actually spent doing inspections, etc.)

http://apps.cbp.gov/bwt/

Not sure what would happen in the case of an independent Quebec, but a lot of our trade would likely flow along the 401 corridor, so it might end up being a 'choke point' for goods traveling between the Maritimes and Ontario.

 

[D'rok]

Not meaningfuly. The papers you work from will be in english as will your other documentation. If you want your paper to be read you will publish it in english. If you want to discuss you work with people outside you imediate team you will again tend to use english.

Constitutions can be changed and with ever increaseing bulks of goverment documents costs increaseingly become prohibative.

Sorry, but you are not grasping the Canadian context. For one thing, the only way the constitution will change in that respect (and in any respect, actually), is if Quebec leaves. The translation costs will never, and I mean never, rise to the extent the Canadian government would consider doing away with official bilingualism (which, tautologically, means that our constitution would have to be amended, which cannot happen, etc...)

 

[Segnosaur]

Section 16(1) of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms:

16. (1) English and French are the official languages of Canada and have equality of status and equal rights and privileges as to their use in all institutions of the Parliament and government of Canada.

I have to admit, if Quebec were to separate, I can see Canada eliminating french as an official language. Some might want to do it out of spite, while others may want to do so for more logical reasons (e.g. if Quebec separates, Francophones will make up an exceptionally small part of our demographics.) Note that this is not the same as actively surpressing the French language... I'm sure private citizens would be allowed to use French as they see fit.

The Canadian government is constitutionally bound to bear the costs of translation. Any publicly funded science and research can be done in French.

Not sure if that's true or not...

Yes, government documents must be translated, but there is still a lot of work done in english only. (I'm a computer programmer, and I've done work for the government before... all of our documentation and programming comments were in English.)

I rather suspect that research done by colleges, etc. likewise may not need to be translated.

 

[D'rok]

Not sure if that's true or not...

Yes, government documents must be translated, but there is still a lot of work done in english only. (I'm a computer programmer, and I've done work for the government before... all of our documentation and programming comments were in English.)

I rather suspect that research done by colleges, etc. likewise may not need to be translated.

I said can be done in French, not must be.

The reality of English as the international language of business has to be faced by Quebec whether they stay in Canada or leave. There is an institutional structure in the Federal government to support the use of French. Try to get a permanent CS position if you don't believe me.

 

[Segnosaur]

They may inspect it but the amount of time lost isn’t that great.

It all depends on the time of day...

There are web sites available where you can look up the expected border delays at any point in time. Right now (around 4pm on a Thursday), many border crossings have no delay, but some have delays anywhere from 15 minutes to almost an hour. (And that's just the delay from the time you arrive until the time you reach the front of the queue... doesn't count the time actually spent doing inspections, etc.)

Just one more little note on this issue... (sorry for responding to my own post...)

In 2001, a survey found that the average delay at U.S. border crossings was 27 minutes for traffic into the U.S., and 14 minutes for traffic going out of the U.S., although 5% of the traffic waited over an hour.

http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/documents/travel_time_delay.pdf

So, is it a big deal to have your trucking staff sitting around for an hour (combined) waiting to go through Customs? I suspect most trucking companies would rather not have to deal with that particular irritation.

 

[lomiller]

I suspect most trucking companies would rather not have to deal with that particular irritation.

Why deal with suspicions when we can simply look at the fact trucking companies already do it by choice?

 

[Segnosaur]

Why deal with suspicions when we can simply look at the fact trucking companies already do it by choice?

Yes, some companies do it by choice, but part of that reason could be that its actually a faster route to go south through the U.S. than to go around the great lakes (for example, when going from Toronto to Vancouver). And given the speed limits and quality of roads, a trucker can make up any time lost by going through customs. (If you use google maps, a route from Toronto to Vancouver takes 1 day 16 hours if you go through the U.S., but if you stick to Canadian roads your travel time increases to over 2 days.)

A trip between (lets say) Halifax and Toronto is different. The fastest route actually sticks to Canada. According to Google maps, the most direct route goes through Quebec and takes 18 hours. If a trucker wanted to avoid Quebec, it would increase the travel time to over 19 hours.

 

[gtc]

Monetary policy - a long post

This is quite a long post on monetary policy. I can't suggest what Canada or Quebec would or should do but I can list the options.

From the ECB's website:

The ECB is the central bank for Europe's single currency, the euro. The ECB’s main task is to maintain the euro's purchasing power and thus price stability in the euro area. The euro area comprises the 15 European Union countries that have introduced the euro since 1999.

The ECB is a joint operation between the 15 EU nations that use the Euro and sets its monetary policy taking into account the interests of those nations. Things like inflation are calculated across the entire 15 nations. Other countries use the Euro but aren't necessarily included in the statistics that are used to determine monetary policy.

If Quebec obtained independence then three things could happen.

1) Canada could set monetary policy taking into account only the interests of Canada. Independent Quebec could issue its own currency and set its own monetary policy according to its needs.

2) Canada could set monetary policy according to its own needs. Independent Quebec could use the Canadian dollar but wouldn't have any say in Canadian monetary policy. If Canada sets interest rates higher than Quebec would like then Quebec's economy suffers. If Canada sets interest rates lower then Quebec risks an overheating economy and excess inflation.

3) The current situation could continue. Interest rates are set taking into account the interests of both Canada and Quebec - the two countries would be treated as one big economy. Occassionally interest rates would be out of sync with Quebec (just as they could be today) but less so than if Quebec was excluded from the economic statistics. Conversely, Canada would have to accept that sometimes monetary policy would be 'wrong' for Canada.

A Quebec currency tied to a basket of the US, Canadian (and maybe Euro) currencies is similar to option 2 but Quebec gets some of the flexibility of option 1 by being able to adjust the basket.

Would Canada accept the loss of soveriegnty that sharing monetary policy with Quebec would entail? Would the Canadian people want to suffer unnecesarily high interest rates or unnecesarily high inflation?

This issue has come up between New Zealand and Australia. Australia would let New Zealand use the Australian dollar but isn't prepared to let New Zealand have a say in monetary policy. New Zealand would consider adopting the Australian dollar but only if it gets a say.

 

[jaydeehess]

there are Federal buildings such as Post Offices and the offices of Federal gov't agencies, in Quebec. I wonder who they would belong to if Quebec were to separate? Would a separate Quebec be expected to but them? Would they be sold by the Fed on the open market. What would the market for office structures be, pretty poor I expect.

 

[Pardalis]

Boy this thread has grown in a day, but I'm happy the conversation took a constructive turn

Aside from the obvious (severed ties to the Crown), how is the President in this model different than the GG?

Well the President would be the one elected, for one thing, everything would be turned around topsy-turvy. Instead of having an appointed "symbolic" head of state, we would have a fully-fledged elected head of state, and everything that it entails. Also, it's a matter of principle, why on earth we still have to listen to an appointed dummy queen from another country and another era completely escapes me.

ETA: I like the Senate Electoral College idea. That's a good compromise between direct elections and un-democratic appointments. It is also a good way to make it really regionally accountable.

It would be a good compromise, if we're destined to remain in Canada.

A lot of talented anglophones I know will leave Québec if it seperates. I'd certainly consider leaving.

But the smart ones will stay.

Actually, the status of natives in Quebec is, to me, probably going to be the messiest part of any separation.

I agree, nobody is pretending this will be a walk in the park, it will surely be a cause for many headaches, but I don't see this as a sufficient reason not to try.

 

[D'rok]

Well the President would be the one elected, for one thing, everything would be turned around topsy-turvy. Instead of having an appointed "symbolic" head of state, we would have a fully-fledged elected head of state, and everything that it entails. Also, it's a matter of principle, why on earth we still have to listen to an appointed dummy queen from another country and another era completely escapes me.

I meant the powers of the office. Will it still have all of the reserve powers that the GG does? The GG and the LGs are very conscious of their perceived lack of legitimacy. If you have an elected head of state, you confer democratic legitmacy on that office. If that office has all of the reserve powers of the GG, it will be empowered by its legitimacy to use them. Is that really what people want?

The same is true of the Senate, BTW. The Senate has all the powers of the HoC. It doesn't use them very much because it is aware of its legitimacy problems. Make it democractically legitimate, and you have a Senate empowered to be a second legislative body in competition with the HoC. Instead of a chamber of sober second thought, you may get a second squabbling, Machievellian mess. And all that without the checks and balances of American style separation of powers.

 

[Segnosaur]

there are Federal buildings such as Post Offices and the offices of Federal gov't agencies, in Quebec.

Not only that, we also have a substantial portion of our military equipment stationed in Quebec.

I wonder who they would belong to if Quebec were to separate? Would a separate Quebec be expected to but them? Would they be sold by the Fed on the open market.

Well, I guess it depends on who you talk to.

The most likely or reasonable situation would be that ownership would be transferred to the Quebec government (in exchange for the Quebec government taking a share of the national debt).

Of course, there are also all the separatist fantasies we have to deal with, such as:
- They'll still be used by the Canadian government
- They'll be transferred to Quebec, but Quebec won't accept any part of the debt (after all, why should QUEBEC accept CANADIAN debt)

What would the market for office structures be, pretty poor I expect.

Yes, it would be.

The Gatineau region is already struggling... it was once labeled (by someone in the BQ if I remember correctly) as being the 'ugliest city' in Canada. Not only would the Canadian government not need those buildings, but since so many people live in Quebec and work in Ontario (a situation that's not likely to continue post-separation) you'd probably get a lot of people moving out of Gatineau in order to save their jobs, making it even harder to keep the business community thriving and keep offices filled.

 

[drkitten]

If Quebec obtained independence then three things could happen.

1) Canada could set monetary policy taking into account only the interests of Canada. Independent Quebec could issue its own currency and set its own monetary policy according to its needs.

2) Canada could set monetary policy according to its own needs. Independent Quebec could use the Canadian dollar but wouldn't have any say in Canadian monetary policy. If Canada sets interest rates higher than Quebec would like then Quebec's economy suffers. If Canada sets interest rates lower then Quebec risks an overheating economy and excess inflation.

3) The current situation could continue. Interest rates are set taking into account the interests of both Canada and Quebec - the two countries would be treated as one big economy. Occassionally interest rates would be out of sync with Quebec (just as they could be today) but less so than if Quebec was excluded from the economic statistics. Conversely, Canada would have to accept that sometimes monetary policy would be 'wrong' for Canada.

Well put.

And as far as I can tell, #3 is a complete non-starter with an "independent" Quebec.

Would Canada accept the loss of soveriegnty that sharing monetary policy with Quebec would entail? Would the Canadian people want to suffer unnecesarily high interest rates or unnecesarily high inflation?

Almost certainly not. And, in fact, as soon as there were actually any measurable "suffering," then electorate would almost certainly demand that Canada repudiate the shared monetary policy treaty and go it alone. And if Canada did so, there's literally no force on earth that could prevent them (absence of an international court and all that).

This issue has come up between New Zealand and Australia. Australia would let New Zealand use the Australian dollar but isn't prepared to let New Zealand have a say in monetary policy. New Zealand would consider adopting the Australian dollar but only if it gets a say.

... and I think both countries are absolutely correct. They'd be fools to compromise their legitimate national self-interest in that way.

Which is why it's not going to happen.