Proof of Immortality III

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jond,
- The implication is that it would not.

There is no such implication. Your current existence could be your only one, and it could be the result of a (non-immortal) soul under OOFLam.

You need to recalculate P(E|H).
 
You're still ignoring the basic objection, which is that you are now defining H differently to the way you were originally defining it, but have failed to "morph" your argument to fit your new H.
Mojo,
- I've certainly tried to explain this lack of morphing. The basic idea is that the argument for ~OOFLam is contained in, is part of, the argument for immortality. The claim of immortality just requires more argument.
 
Does the self exist separately from the body in OOFLam?

jond,
- The implication is that it would not.

There is no such implication. Your current existence could be your only one, and it could be the result of a (non-immortal) soul under OOFLam.

You need to recalculate P(E|H).
js,
- I don't understand. For a mortal soul to exist, it would have to be connected to a living body...
 
Jabba -

Included in the idea that we have only a single life is at least two different models: a) the scientific model of the universe; and b) the clockwork universe. There is no way to disprove a clockwork universe.

In the scientific model let's agree that you had a very small chance of existing. But in the clockwork model, your chance of existing was always 1. Your existence is a necessary consequence of the starting conditions of the universe.

How do you calculate the overall probability that you would come to exist when two theories, both contained in the OOFLAM set, have such different probabilities attached to them?
LL,
- What was the probability that the big bang would have all the necessary characteristics?
 
LL,
- What was the probability that the big bang would have all the necessary characteristics?

In the clockwork-universe model, 1. Or at best, irrelevant. The point is that you can't rule out the possibility of a clockwork universe, and your hypothesis set doesn't account for it. You conflate predictability with determinism and decide that you need a very small number for the probability of the universe producing you-as-you-are. That's just begging the question.
 
js,
- I don't understand. For a mortal soul to exist, it would have to be connected to a living body...

Why? You don't require a soul be connected to a living body in ~H. Also, if it is the soul that defines the existence, even if a body is required, which body could be irrelevant. Any body would do.

You need to recalculate P(E|H).
 
Mojo,
- If I understand what you're saying, I think you're wrong -- it's still an issue of OOFLam vs ~OOFLam.

~OOFLam is not the same as immortality. Mojo's not wrong. Nor was I when I brought it up, nor was jt512 when he brought it up.

All your threads here contain this same fundamental error in reasoning -- the false dilemma. As your critics have discussed, you need to clarify whether you simply don't know what a false dilemma is or whether you're deliberately avoiding discussing it so that your cherished belief remains untarnished. The question is not, however, whether your argument constitutes a false dilemma. That's simply a fact.
 
No. I can't rule it out.

Then your proof fails.

Unfortunately, this is another mind, and communication, boggling sub-issue.

No, it really isn't. Don't try to obfuscate things in order to mask failure. There is an alternative you don't consider in your model, and it vastly alters your formulation of the probabilities upon which you have relied in order to pretend to compute the probability that your belief is correct.

First, even if we should accept that such would change my likelihood to 1.00, it wouldn't change the odds that now would be somewhere between 1942 and, say, 2042 on the Gregorian calendar.

Red herring.

- Next, once we had the big bang and a deterministic universe, my odds of ever existing would be 1.00 -- but, if we go back to the apparent singularity, the odds of me ever existing would still be virtually zero.

No, you're just trying to redefine what "clockwork universe" means.
 
Jabba, I'm going to try one more time to simplify this for you:
1: your body exists. We know this, as your body is what types to us here on the Internet. What we don't know is whether or not there is a soul. So:
2: under the scientific model, there is no soul. So, for we only need to figure out the probability of your body existing.
3: if science is wrong, and there is a soul (whether it is mortal, immortal, reincarnated, split infinitely, whatever) we need to calculate the probability of a soul existing. BUT:
4: see #1, we KNOW that your body exists. Thus if it has a soul we need to account for the probability of 1 &2 (the body and the soul) because there is no escaping the fact that your body exists and your soul inhabits it. AND:
5: we need to figure out a methodology by which the soul inhabits a body, and how it selects that. Therefore you need to account for 3 things: (the body, the soul, and the inhabiting of a body.)

So: it is impossible for it to be more likely that souls exist and inhabit bodies than it is for bodies to exist and not require the other elements.
 
I've certainly tried to explain this lack of morphing.

No, you simply insist it hasn't occurred despite the many demonstrations showing you it has.

The basic idea is that the argument for ~OOFLam is contained in, is part of, the argument for immortality.

Asked and answered several times.

First, you still appear confused about the difference between necessity and sufficiency in an argument. And frankly I've grown tired of trying to explain it to someone who's emotionally entrenched in an opposite belief.

Second, that "contained in" part doesn't let you reason statistically as you're attempting to because you have partitioned the hypothesis set incorrectly for immortality, or even for that matter, immateriality (although you still don't get to move that goalpost without consequences to your argument). jt512 explained this, as did caveman1917. That explanation had to be brought to your attention several times, and you sidestepped it by saying you "didn't understand."

So we're back to the same dilemma of figuring out whether you're feigning incomprehension in order to protect your cherished belief, or whether you're not sufficiently competent to undertake the kind of proof you've set for yourself. There is no possibility that you're correct, so pick one of the other two explanations for continuing to be wrong.

The claim of immortality just requires more argument.

No, it requires a different argument. You're trying the same thing you do in all your threads. You try to prove a belief, but you soon realize you can't. So then you try to show that some other belief is improbable, and you style it as the only other alternative. This is a false dilemma.

And in the larger sense it's the same as every other fringe claimant. They can't prove the farfetched claim, so they try to disprove the common alternative in hopes their belief will then hold by default. UFOs "must" be alien ships because no earthly possibility explains the observation. Someone else "must" have killed Kennedy because it was unlikely Oswald could have succeeded acting alone. The moon landings "must" be a hoax because it's improbable they could have done it using 1960s technology. And in your case, we "must" be immortal for similar reasons.
 
In the clockwork-universe model, 1. Or at best, irrelevant. The point is that you can't rule out the possibility of a clockwork universe, and your hypothesis set doesn't account for it. You conflate predictability with determinism and decide that you need a very small number for the probability of the universe producing you-as-you-are. That's just begging the question.
Jay,
- According to Hawking, at least, whatever existed before the big bang, wasn't clockwork...
 
js,
- I don't understand. For a mortal soul to exist, it would have to be connected to a living body...

Why? You don't require a soul be connected to a living body in ~H. Also, if it is the soul that defines the existence, even if a body is required, which body could be irrelevant. Any body would do.

You need to recalculate P(E|H).
js,
- Still struggling here -- that would seem to be the critical difference between the two hypotheses.
 
According to Hawking, there was no "before" the big bang.
Dave,
- Yeah (I was going to put little quotes around the 'before,' but decided not to), but Hawking does talk about a singularity that somehow brought forth(?) the big bang. In addition, the singularity took up no space and contained infinite mass...
- Whatever, the big bang came with characteristics that ultimately lead to me in a deterministic universe. What is the likelihood that the big bang would bring those precise characteristics -- given modern science?
 
Dave,
- Yeah (I was going to put little quotes around the 'before,' but decided not to), but Hawking does talk about a singularity that somehow brought forth(?) the big bang. In addition, the singularity took up no space and contained infinite mass...
- Whatever, the big bang came with characteristics that ultimately lead to me in a deterministic universe. What is the likelihood that the big bang would bring those precise characteristics -- given modern science?

Doesn't matter what the likelihood is, the fact is that it did turn out that way. Do you really think we're so important to the universe that it was created this was just so we could exist?
 
Dave,
- Yeah (I was going to put little quotes around the 'before,' but decided not to), but Hawking does talk about a singularity that somehow brought forth(?) the big bang. In addition, the singularity took up no space and contained infinite mass...
- Whatever, the big bang came with characteristics that ultimately lead to me in a deterministic universe. What is the likelihood that the big bang would bring those precise characteristics -- given modern science?

Since that singularity was the beginning of everything, there are two ways to answer this: "exactly 1" and "there is no way to know".
 
Jay,
- According to Hawking, at least, whatever existed before the big bang, wasn't clockwork...

Still irrelevant to your argument, and an inaccurate portrayal of Hawking's cosmology.

"Since events before the Big Bang have no observational consequences, one may as well cut them out of the theory, and say that time began at the Big Bang. Events before the Big Bang, are simply not defined, because there's no way one could measure what happened at them." http://www.hawking.org.uk/the-beginning-of-time.html
 
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Still struggling here -- that would seem to be the critical difference between the two hypotheses.

On the contrary, it's a necessarily similarity. You're trying to equivocate up a difference, in this case that mortal souls must necessarily differ from immortal souls in their ability to exist separately from the body. You provide no rationale for this, and as such it constitutes begging a premise that creates a desired outcome for your reasoning.

In the larger sense, it means that your critics are very right when they say you haven't properly considered all the possibilities that apply to your chosen line of reasoning. You've setup a false dilemma among a small subset of possibilities. That's one of several individually fatal errors you make. Then you've invented rules for each of those possibilities that clearly derive from your desired outcome. That's circular reasoning, and another fatal error.
 
Hawking does talk about a singularity that somehow brought forth(?) the big bang.

But you heinously misrepresent the circumstances he discusses and their import. Don't try to cobble up your own version of other people's theories just so you can pretend to have an excuse not to address a clear refutation.

What is the likelihood that the big bang would bring those precise characteristics -- given modern science?

Exactly 1 or "unknown." Neither option lets you disregard the possibility of a clockwork universe, which you seem determined to do in defense of your emotionally-held belief. Denial is not an argument. At best, the probability of you arising out of such a universe is unknowable and inestimable.
 
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