Presidential Primaries 2016

[hgc]

Really? I thought his dad supposedly supported the highlighted. I suppose they could disagree, of course... or my stoner buddy that told me so could have been wrong, I guess.

He's banking on Daddy's fervent followers not noticing that he's no genuine article. But he might even have enough sense to know that libertarians constitute a tiny segment and always will, and is solidly aiming for the usual teabagger and theocon segments.

 

[Puppycow]

This rundown in The Atlantic covers all the mentionables:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-2016-presidential-race-a-cheat-sheet/384828/

Who's running, who's not running, who's maybe running. I like the entry for Trump.

Early Tuesday morning, Rand Paul sent an email to supporters announcing, formally, that he’s running for president in 2016. Later in the day, he marked the kickoff with a speech at the Galt House Hotel in Louisville, Kentucky (The name seems a little on the nose.)

 

[Foolmewunz]

It'll be interesting to see what this does to the primaries if both Cruz and Paul stay the course. We'll see a lot of jockeying in the next few weeks from both their camps to stake our the True Conservative^TM territory. Cruz is already claiming the religious low ground. Rand's going to have to go after the fiscal low ground. The crossover competition is going to be important.

Will this achieve 2012 redux? Where Bachmann Santorum Overdrive forced the middle to the right to prevent being blown out of the primaries? Or will the Christie/Bush/Rubio mainstream let them tear themselves apart and try to come in as voices of sensible moderation?

>>> Does anyone have a handle on their war chests? Who, aside from Billary, has the best start in terms of money? Mittens showed them that money can take the GOP nomination.

 

[Tony Stark]

It'll be interesting to see what this does to the primaries if both Cruz and Paul stay the course. We'll see a lot of jockeying in the next few weeks from both their camps to stake our the True Conservative^TM territory. Cruz is already claiming the religious low ground. Rand's going to have to go after the fiscal low ground. The crossover competition is going to be important.

Will this achieve 2012 redux? Where Bachmann Santorum Overdrive forced the middle to the right to prevent being blown out of the primaries? Or will the Christie/Bush/Rubio mainstream let them tear themselves apart and try to come in as voices of sensible moderation?

I think the GOP clownshow will be even worse than it was in 2012.

>>> Does anyone have a handle on their war chests? Who, aside from Billary, has the best start in terms of money? Mittens showed them that money can take the GOP nomination.

Jeb Bush will probably have the money this go around.

 

[Spindrift]

I think the GOP clownshow will be even worse than it was in 2012.



Jeb Bush will probably have the money this go around.

Jeb is going to be attacked for his last name, the things he did as governor, things his brother did and his conservative views. Then if he gets the nomination, the Democrats will attack him too.

 

[hgc]

>>> Does anyone have a handle on their war chests? Who, aside from Billary, has the best start in terms of money? Mittens showed them that money can take the GOP nomination.

Let's see who wins the Adelson Primary. Commitment to war with Iran will be a key litmus test, and they all (but R. Paul) have pretty much bellied up to that bar already.

 

[varwoche]

He's banking on Daddy's fervent followers not noticing that he's no genuine article. But he might even have enough sense to know that libertarians constitute a tiny segment and always will, and is solidly aiming for the usual teabagger and theocon segments.

Looking through the lens of this forum, Daddy's fervent followers aren't so fervent for Rand.

 

[dudalb]

He's banking on Daddy's fervent followers not noticing that he's no genuine article. But he might even have enough sense to know that libertarians constitute a tiny segment and always will, and is solidly aiming for the usual teabagger and theocon segments.

Problem he has is that by trying to satisfy everybody,he will end up with nobody realling trusting him. I can't help but think that his constant 180 degree turns on issues won't hurt him.

 

[hgc]

Problem he has is that by trying to satisfy everybody,he will end up with nobody realling trusting him. I can't help but think that his constant 180 degree turns on issues won't hurt him.

Meh. People always talk about good game about how changing positions is harmful, but then they don't really care. What they care about is do they agree with what they're hearing now. You could say that the attacks on J. Kerry's "for it before he was against it" is an exception, but then that was just a catchy slogan. Few people actually knew what he was allegedly for or against anyway.

 

[Biscuit]

I expect every single GOP candidate will pull the wheel to the right and slam on the gas all the way up to the primary. The winner will then pull the emergency break, throw it in reverse, release the break and try and get back to the center as quickly as he/she can. It's going to induce a lot of whiplash in the back seat and it's going to be hilarious.

I don't believe the GOP will be able to win the white house for a number of cycles.

 

[hgc]

I expect every single GOP candidate will pull the wheel to the right and slam on the gas all the way up to the primary. The winner will then pull the emergency break, throw it in reverse, release the break and try and get back to the center as quickly as he/she can. It's going to induce a lot of whiplash in the back seat and it's going to be hilarious.

I don't believe the GOP will be able to win the white house for a number of cycles.

I think the mandarins will want to settle it quickly. If they can lock in their guy by, say April 2016, then there's ample runway to put the goofy in reverse.

 

[dudalb]

Meh. People always talk about good game about how changing positions is harmful, but then they don't really care. What they care about is do they agree with what they're hearing now. You could say that the attacks on J. Kerry's "for it before he was against it" is an exception, but then that was just a catchy slogan. Few people actually knew what he was allegedly for or against anyway.

Usually I agree with you,but in the case of Rand it's that he has chaged his position so often that it has become a comedian's punchline. Every politician does a 180 once in a while, but Rand had done it with such frequency that is had badly damaged his credibtility.

 

[dudalb]

I think the mandarins will want to settle it quickly. If they can lock in their guy by, say April 2016, then there's ample runway to put the goofy in reverse.

IMHO the Madarins have already decided that Jeb will be the chosen one.

 

[dudalb]

And today Rand is taking heat for a very obvious dodge on the abortion question:He won't say what exceptions he would make to an abortion ban.

Look,other politicians do what Rand is doing; I get that. It is just that Rand is so freaking obvious about it.Yes,as a pol you dodge touch questions but you make it look as if you are not dodging it. That Rand's problem:He does not get that you can't be obvious about dodging question and making 180 degre turns. You have to make it look as if you are not doing the above.

 

[grunion]

I expect every single GOP candidate will pull the wheel to the right and slam on the gas all the way up to the primary. The winner will then pull the emergency break, throw it in reverse, release the break and try and get back to the center as quickly as he/she can. It's going to induce a lot of whiplash in the back seat and it's going to be hilarious.

I don't believe the GOP will be able to win the white house for a number of cycles.

I think Cruz is betting heavily on the "stir up the base" strategy - that the Christian Crusader momentum that he expects to take him through the primary will overpower a Clinton campaign weak and reeling from supposed scandals and primary challenges from the left. The problem is the Christians are giving their money to Jeb.

 

[hgc]

I think Cruz is betting heavily on the "stir up the base" strategy - that the Christian Crusader momentum that he expects to take him through the primary will overpower a Clinton campaign weak and reeling from supposed scandals and primary challenges from the left. The problem is the Christians are giving their money to Jeb.

H. Clinton challenged from the left? By whom? E. Warren is not running -- period, end of story. B. Sanders, if he runs, it just a curiosity. As much as the Christian Crusader movement may propel R. "T." Cruz to ever greater political celebrity, it will never carry anyone to the presidency. The American electorate may be overall god-fearing and conservative, but I don't think they'll ever give the nod to a fire-breathing preacher, especially one as creepy as this guy.

 

[Manopolus]

H. Clinton challenged from the left? By whom? E. Warren is not running -- period, end of story. B. Sanders, if he runs, it just a curiosity. As much as the Christian Crusader movement may propel R. "T." Cruz to ever greater political celebrity, it will never carry anyone to the presidency. The American electorate may be overall god-fearing and conservative, but I don't think they'll ever give the nod to a fire-breathing preacher, especially one as creepy as this guy.

O'Malley would be the most likely to challenge from the left. I don't think he'll be as vicious as you generally see on the Republican side though. They never are. I've never heard of a Dem primary where mudslinging was a major part of the competition.

 

[Tony Stark]

O'Malley would be the most likely to challenge from the left. I don't think he'll be as vicious as you generally see on the Republican side though. They never are. I've never heard of a Dem primary where mudslinging was a major part of the competition.

Except for Hillary Clinton is actually to his left.

Martin O’Malley is a star in Democratic primary polls. But that’s not a good thing. Pollsters give candidates a “*” symbol when they get less than 1 percent support. So just how is O’Malley going to fight all the way back against Hillary Clinton? Reportedly by offering a more progressive vision and running to Clinton’s left. There’s one main problem with this strategy: It makes no sense.

I’ve already noted that Clinton is polling strongly among liberal voters. She’s also received a number of endorsements from elected officials in the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, something that she didn’t have eight years ago which is highly predictive of primary success. But let’s add one more important element: Clinton is more liberal than O’Malley.

 

[hgc]

Except for Hillary Clinton is actually to his left.

Yup. The only point of challenge to H. Clinton in the Dem primary will be along the lines that she's the antithesis of something new/fresh face. She also has uneven political skills, which can cause slip-ups. There are also specific policy disagreements as yet unknown that may become significant, but I don't think that's a high probability. The scandal factor is a well-traveled road, but probably won't produce anything new and exciting.

In short, she'll take the nomination in a walk.

 

[Puppycow]

hgc, why am I not seeing one V. Supreme on your list there?
Just an oversight I suppose?