Presidential Primaries 2012

You beat me to it.

Other than Sarah Palin, the fakers are mostly all out. (I see that Keyes and Giuliani haven't been crossed out yet, but I haven't seen any hint that either one of them is running, or even pretending to run.)
 
You beat me to it.

Other than Sarah Palin, the fakers are mostly all out. (I see that Keyes and Giuliani haven't been crossed out yet, but I haven't seen any hint that either one of them is running, or even pretending to run.)


No hint from Keyes, but Giuliani is still making gurgling noises. I expect he'll milk the prospect for one more small blast of media coverage, and then slink away.
 
The wheels are coming off the Bachmann campaign as top aides are resigning.

Does anyone else but me think that she will stay in the race to the bitter end in order to insure her next career as a FoxNews pundit?
 
Ha! I didn't know that M. Bachmann was already bleeding staff - especially Ed Rollins!

Rollins, whose decision to step back was first reported by Politico, told The Fix that he was too old to deal with the grind of the day-to-day campaign.

"I am tired and am concerned about my health," Rollins said. "Managing a campaign is tough for a young man, and I am 68 and battered by many years of campaign combat."


Question to Rollo: You didn't know 6 weeks ago, when you took this gig, that you're an old man? Don't worry. He's got a big mouth, and he'll be out trashing his former client in no time.
 
Analysis from Nate Silver:
Electability a Primary Liability for Perry

I’ve developed a habit — it’s probably a bad habit — of assigning letter grades to the Republican candidates based on my initial reaction to their performance in debates. After Wednesday night’s debate in Simi Valley, I gave Rick Perry a B-minus, meaning an average performance. Meanwhile, I gave Mitt Romney, his primary rival for the Republican nomination, a higher grade of A-minus.

The grades are based on neither style nor substance per se, but instead mostly on strategy: how much each candidate did to improve his chances of winning the nomination.
. . .
Some of Mr. Perry’s odder moments — like his invocation of Galileo Galilei in response to a question about climate change — are liable to make for a funny segment on The Daily Show and then be forgotten about. What was more noteworthy was Mr. Perry’s response to a question about Social Security, where he doubled-down on rhetoric from his book and characterized the program as a “Ponzi scheme.”

This particular remark is not likely to sit exceptionally well even with Republicans, conservative though they may be. A CNN poll published last month found 57 percent of Republicans opposed to major changes in Social Security and Medicare.
. . .
Regression analysis of the Washington Post poll suggests that Republicans are weighing these two factors — electability and issue positioning — about equally. If Mr. Romney, rather than Mr. Perry, led on the electability question, that could be enough to push him past Mr. Perry even if Mr. Perry is a little closer to Republican voters on the issues.
. . .
Unless he develops a stronger defense of his positions on Social Security, he will make Mr. Romney’s job much easier.

ETA: Nate also linked to this article:
Insiders: GOP Would Be Better Off With Romney for 2012
 
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Punters are finally starting to realize that she won't be in the race, and that it's really a 2-man race.

Here's the latest:

Perry: 39.0% +2.1%
Romney: 32.0% +2.3%
Huntsman: 7.0% +0.5%
Palin: 6.0% -1.9%
Bachmann: 4.0% -0.4%
Paul: 4.0% +0.4%

Post-debate update:
Romney's the front-runner again. :D
And mysteriously, some people still think that Huntsman has a chance. They should take a look at the polls. Bachmann's plummet continues.

Romney: 37.0% +5.0%
Perry: 35.8% -3.2%
Huntsman: 7.5% +0.5%
Palin: 5.8% -0.2%
Bachmann: 2.9% -1.1%
Paul: 2.9% -1.1%
 
Post-debate update:
Romney's the front-runner again. :D
And mysteriously, some people still think that Huntsman has a chance. They should take a look at the polls. Bachmann's plummet continues.

Romney: 37.0% +5.0%
Perry: 35.8% -3.2%
Huntsman: 7.5% +0.5%
Palin: 5.8% -0.2%
Bachmann: 2.9% -1.1%
Paul: 2.9% -1.1%

Not saying Huntsman really has a chance but how far back was McCain at this time in 2007?
 
Not saying Huntsman really has a chance but how far back was McCain at this time in 2007?

Here you go. It's true that he had a low point in the summer of 2007, but even then he was still in double digits in most polls. In a couple of polls he slipped down into the high single digits. So even at the lowest point of his campaign he still polled several times higher than Huntsman is polling.

I suppose that you could point to Huckabee because he had similar numbers to Huntsman in the summer of '07 and went on to win Iowa, but Huntsman is not the sort who will be competitive in Iowa. Maybe New Hampshire or Nevada? He's gotta do really well in one those states. Still seems like a long shot for him to draw votes from Romney in those states though.
 
Michelle Bachmann seemed to suggest a 0% tax rate last night, while also suggesting that tax must be paid.
 
Michelle Bachmann seemed to suggest a 0% tax rate last night, while also suggesting that tax must be paid.

Yeah what the hell was with that comment? :boggled: I think she was going for some sort of sound byte response, but it made no sense.

I don't know who I'd vote for if I had to vote for a Republican candidate. I think if I was an American I'd probably grit my teeth and tick Obama's box, but I don't know. Ron Paul is like a mix between total senility and "man, we need this guy", but I like him more than not and he'd probably be my choice after boring, push-over Obama.
 
Yeah what the hell was with that comment? :boggled: I think she was going for some sort of sound byte response, but it made no sense.

I don't know who I'd vote for if I had to vote for a Republican candidate. I think if I was an American I'd probably grit my teeth and tick Obama's box, but I don't know. Ron Paul is like a mix between total senility and "man, we need this guy", but I like him more than not and he'd probably be my choice after boring, push-over Obama.

Ron Paul is like a doctor who has some really sound ideas about nutrition, but wants to take your heart out with a spoon because he thinks you don't need it.
 
Michelle Bachmann seemed to suggest a 0% tax rate last night, while also suggesting that tax must be paid.

The Bachmann collapse has been stunning. Her position in the polls is heading in the direction of 0%, which is probably what had her confused.
 
The Bachmann collapse has been stunning. Her position in the polls is heading in the direction of 0%, which is probably what had her confused.

I think the speed of the collapse is stunning, but the collapse itself was inevitable. Bachmann's seemingly endless supply of stupid things to say and her penchant for doubling down on them meant it was only a matter of time.
 
Dealer: "Player has 18"
Bachmann: "Hit me!"
Dealer: "25! Player busts."
Bachmann: "Hit me!"
Dealer: "You've already bust."
Bachmann: "Hit me again!"
Dealer: "You've lost your money!"
Bachmann: "Split!"
Dealer: "Get security!"
 
I think the speed of the collapse is stunning, but the collapse itself was inevitable. Bachmann's seemingly endless supply of stupid things to say and her penchant for doubling down on them meant it was only a matter of time.

Yes, agreed. It's the speed of the collapse. I still think the R. Giuliani collapse of 4 years ago is the most stunning of all.
 
So, imagine if an active duty soldier called in to a Democratic political event, the crowd booed him and the candidates did nothing. Imagine the hysteria from the right.
Hypocritical ****heads.
 
Sarah Palin, still duping the rubes.

SarahPAC: With time running out before Palin’s decision, send money

Alaska Republican Sarah Palin is “on the verge of making her decision of whether or not to run for office” – and her backers should write a check right away, a letter from her political action committee says.

The Sept. 20 letter from SarahPAC treasurer Tim Crawford says: “It’s one of the most difficult and important decisions of her life. And I want her to know that she has our support.”
 
Post-debate update:
Romney's the front-runner again. :D
And mysteriously, some people still think that Huntsman has a chance. They should take a look at the polls. Bachmann's plummet continues.

Romney: 37.0% +5.0%
Perry: 35.8% -3.2%
Huntsman: 7.5% +0.5%
Palin: 5.8% -0.2%
Bachmann: 2.9% -1.1%
Paul: 2.9% -1.1%

Time for another update.

Romney: 45.1% +8.1%
Perry: 27.0% -8.8%
Palin: 7.4% +1.4%
Huntsman: 4.4% -3.1%
Paul: 2.9% unchanged
Bachmann: 2.0% -0.9%

As you can see, things are really moving Romney's way. Gail Collins writes about Perry’s Bad Night:

But it was impossible to watch that debate without realizing that Perry is not presidential timber, or even presidential polyurethane.

Here was Perry’s answer to the inevitable question about what he’d do if the White House phone rang at 3 a.m. In this case, the hypothetical call informed the hypothetical President Perry that the Taliban had gotten control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

“Well, obviously, before you ever get to that point, you have to build a relationship in that region. And that’s one of the things that this administration has not done. Just yesterday we found out through Admiral Mullen that Haqqani has been involved with — and that’s the terrorist group directly associated with the Pakistani country — so to have a relationship with India, to make sure that India knows that they are an ally of the United States.”

He went on to tell a story about how the Obama administration wouldn’t sell upgraded F-16 fighters to India. Which never happened.

Romney, meanwhile, was very much on his game, glib and grinning madly. He lashed into Perry for the Texas version of the Dream Act. (“If you’re an illegal alien, you get an in-state tuition discount!”)
 

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