Preppers: What should we be worried about?

[aggle-rithm]

My wife has been getting worried lately because her friend has been unloading on her with lots of doomsday prepper rhetoric. Lately, she's become more worried because her friend said that her husband has also attended survival classes with her and has likewise assembled a "bugout bag" so they can be ready to leave at a moment's notice.

This worries Mrs. Agglerithm because, although she recognizes her friend is a little eccentric, she thinks of the husband as being very level-headed and logical. If he's into it, she thinks, there must be something to it.

I asked my wife what exactly it was they were worried about. She said the fear was that Obama was trying to incite nationwide rioting, and once he had that going he was going to declare martial law. From there, he will...I don't know. Take over, I guess.

As a result, the monetary system was going to collapse and there would be food shortages. It was thus a good idea to keep lots of cash available.

To her credit, Mrs. Agglerithm asked her friend a few pointed questions, such as, "Where exactly are you going to go when things to south and you 'bug out'?"

The answer: "Anywhere. Somewhere else. It doesn't matter."

She also asked her what she was going to do about her small clowder of cats. "I'll just take them to the vet and have them euthanized," she was told.

At this point, I had to speak up. "Hold on," I told my wife. "You're saying that there's rioting in the streets, we're under martial law, the economy has collapsed, there's no food...and the vet is still taking appointments?!?"

This led to a productive discussion about what we might legitimately worry about and need to be prepared for. My opinion was that the far likelier danger, for us, was that we would get too old and sick to work. That's the sort of thing we should be prepared for, not an extraordinary level of political unrest that has never actually been seen in this country before (at least, not since the Civil War).

It got me thinking about: Where do you cross the line from reasonable preparedness to outright paranoia? For instance, I thought about what sort of situations might require us to "bug out":

High probability: Fire, tornado.

Lower probability: Plane crash in our FREAKING NEIGHBORHOOD!

Very low probability: Obama declaring himself Emperor.

Also, what sort of things might cause food shortages and economic collapse:

High probability: Running out of oil, extreme drought.

Lower probability: EM pulse knocking out the electric grid for several years.

Extremely low probability: Obama stealing all the money and food and keeping it to himself.

Any thoughts?

 

[aggle-rithm]

Mrs. Agglerithm seems to be really worried about the possibility of food shortages. I tried to reassure her with a couple of facts:

1. We currently produce WAY TOO MUCH FOOD. We've got a long way to go before we're dealing with shortages.

2. During WWII, 40% of the vegetables produced in the US were from private "victory" gardens. When necessary, we can be very flexible with our food supply.

 

[commandlinegamer]

I wonder this about preppers/survivalists.

If they already fear someone in authority usurping (more) power, will they be able to organise themselves (under a leader) to resist, should it become necessary? Or, will paranoia simply lead to loads of small people living on their own trusting nobody?

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I asked my wife what exactly it was they were worried about. She said the fear was that Obama was trying to incite nationwide rioting, and once he had that going he was going to declare martial law. From there, he will...I don't know. Take over, I guess.

As a result, the monetary system was going to collapse and there would be food shortages. It was thus a good idea to keep lots of cash available.

What would Obama 'take over' when he's already the President of the United States? This is widely regarded as a really quite senior position. He's not going to get himself a promotion by wrecking his own country.

Also, if the monetary system collapses and there's no food, what use is cash?

 

[aggle-rithm]

What would Obama 'take over' when he's already the President of the United States? This is widely regarded as a really quite senior position. He's not going to get himself a promotion by wrecking his own country.

Also, if the monetary system collapses and there's no food, what use is cash?

All good questions. I don't think the preppers have thought this through.

 

[aggle-rithm]

I wonder this about preppers/survivalists.

If they already fear someone in authority usurping (more) power, will they be able to organise themselves (under a leader) to resist, should it become necessary? Or, will paranoia simply lead to loads of small people living on their own trusting nobody?

They seem to be made up of rugged individualists. The expectation is that there will be small groups defending their bunkers from their starving neighbors.

 

[IDB87]

Lately, she's become more worried because her friend said that her husband has also attended survival classes with her and has likewise assembled a "bugout bag" so they can be ready to leave at a moment's notice.

There's nothing inherently wrong with their attending such classes, and a bugout bag is applicable to any natural disaster like a blizzard or forest fire.

I asked my wife what exactly it was they were worried about. She said the fear was that Obama was trying to incite nationwide rioting, and once he had that going he was going to declare martial law. From there, he will...I don't know. Take over, I guess

As a result, the monetary system was going to collapse and there would be food shortages. It was thus a good idea to keep lots of cash available.

If the monetary system collapsed, wouldn't the dollar be useless? She needs to think about bartering. This woman is no prepper

She also asked her what she was going to do about her small clowder of cats. "I'll just take them to the vet and have them euthanized," she was told.

At this point, I had to speak up. "Hold on," I told my wife. "You're saying that there's rioting in the streets, we're under martial law, the economy has collapsed, there's no food...and the vet is still taking appointments?!?"

That is hilariously depressing.

High probability: Fire, tornado.

Fire : Come up with an evacuation plan / rally point. Have fire extinguishers in easy to access places.

Tornado : Just dig a deep hole and use it as a root cellar / shelter.

High probability: Running out of oil, extreme drought.

Running out of oil: consider getting a second tank, or switching to a more renewable source of fuel like wood or coal with a forced hot water system.

Extreme drought: consider installing a home water catch system using your roof, a series of pvc pipes, and a couple thousand gallon drums.

Any thoughts?

I'm planning on doing all of the above for the home I just purchased. Unless there's a civil war in your neighborhood, or a forest fire in your back yard, there's really no reason to bug out.

 

[Megalodon]

I find preppers hilarious... The cash detail is brilliant. Also the idea of leaving to "somewhere". You're in your neighborhood, you know the place and the people, and you have a house.

In case of civil unrest, you plan to become a hobo somewhere where nobody knows you or cares if you live or die... that makes sense.

And in a jam, cats make good eating.

Well, not literally in a jam...

 

[Ranb]

If your area is safe, then stay, it is is not (think Katrina here) then leave. This is what a bug-out bag is for; to leave at a moment's notice. It is a very good idea to keep food/water around for any emergencies. I have a fire resistant safe with documents and cash in case there is a fire or other emergency. While I have guns/ammo, they are rather far down on the list of things I need in the kinds of emergencies I am likely to encounter.

In 49 years all I have had to deal with is hiding in the basement from a tornado and unplanned power outages that lasted no more than a few days. The Obama/martial law crap is silly though.

Ranb

 

[aggle-rithm]

Running out of oil: consider getting a second tank, or switching to a more renewable source of fuel like wood or coal with a forced hot water system.

Extreme drought: consider installing a home water catch system using your roof, a series of pvc pipes, and a couple thousand gallon drums.

Here I was thinking more about nationwide or regional effects. Not having enough oil is more than just about not having enough for ME and my family, there are lots of things that depend on oil.

Which brings up an interesting point: Preppers sometimes don't think carefully enough about how much they depend on an intact, functioning society around them. Sure, if they get a generator, they can have electricity in their home when the grid collapses. However, without the grid there is no water coming into the home...at least not clean water.

And that's just one of the effects.

 

[Bikewer]

I've said before that we seem to go through stages in this regard. As a Cold War child, I well recall the "Duck and cover" drills and we had at least one friend who had built a fallout shelter in their new suburban home.
Within a few years, it had become walk-in storage...
When I was starting out in police work back in the seventies, there was a fair spate of "survivalist" goings-on. That was a new term back then....People were being advised to spend money on small, hidden-away properties in the Ozarks which might provide the location for a well-supplied and fortified "hunter's cabin" to which the family might retreat in case of societal collapse.
What was going to collapse society was rather vague...j

Then there's the ongoing black-helicopters-UN-takeover nonsense that started some years ago, and of course now we have Obama-fear and the rise of the New Militias which seem to act pretty much like the old militias (as in Robert DePugh and his "Minutemen").
I suspect much of this is faddish, but disturbingly the movement does seem to attract numbers of people who are... Unbalanced.
Like that fellow down in Alabama who is apparently still holding a young boy hostage in his "bunker".

 

[Toke]

There are legitimate reasons for having a small food supply and a camping stove at home, but the whole prepper/survivalist movement are nuts.

In another tread I suggested a gardening book (John Seymour) to a dedicated survivalist. Just so he would have some food while survivaling. He did not appreciate it, and opted instead to use his guns for hunting.

 

[Biscuit]

Why not just let the cats go?

Other than natural disasters I can't think of a single reason I would need to leave my house. Even if I did I would just go to the cabin where there is tons food, a well, a generator, and snuggly warm blankets. I should look into solar or wind power now that I think of it.

Oh and my pets, including my obnoxious cat, are coming with me! (The dogs love the cabin!)

 

[Biscuit]

There are legitimate reasons for having a small food supply and a camping stove at home, but the whole prepper/survivalist movement are nuts.

In another tread I suggested a gardening book (John Seymour) to a dedicated survivalist. Just so he would have some food while survivaling. He did not appreciate it, and opted instead to use his guns for hunting.

Hunting for vegetables is a time honored tradition in America.

 

[Finster]

I don't think the preppers have thought this through.

I think that pretty much covers it.

 

[Toke]

Bug out? As in evacuating Copenhagen?
Forget it.

As for other preparations, it is possible that I would loose electricity, water, heat, or cooking gas.
It is just that there would be a huge number of people assigned to restoring it snappish.

The GURPS YK2 games supplement had a interesting take on some of the survivalist scenarios, most were picked apart,

 

[IDB87]

Here I was thinking more about nationwide or regional effects. Not having enough oil is more than just about not having enough for ME and my family, there are lots of things that depend on oil.

The only major things I can think of that are impacted by oil is transportation of foods and medicines. If Oil suddenly vanished over night, our society would transition to an agrarian based economy fairly quickly. Food, for the most part, can be produced locally and stockpiled for a few years. But medicine is very tricky. I'd be pretty SOL, as I'm asthmatic and would need to get an inhalable steroid somehow. Antibiotics would be in -very- high demand.

Other than that, I can't think of anything important that requires oil.

Which brings up an interesting point: Preppers sometimes don't think carefully enough about how much they depend on an intact, functioning society around them. Sure, if they get a generator, they can have electricity in their home when the grid collapses. However, without the grid there is no water coming into the home...at least not clean water.

And that's just one of the effects.

Yeah, definitely agree with you. You have to really understand how the grid functions in order to prep what you can feasibly offset. Most people, I think, don't really know how our system functions.

 

[IDB87]

Hunting for vegetables is a time honored tradition in America.

Most preppers with this mentality would see this sort of end:

 

[Finster]

Here I was thinking more about nationwide or regional effects. Not having enough oil is more than just about not having enough for ME and my family, there are lots of things that depend on oil.

Which brings up an interesting point: Preppers sometimes don't think carefully enough about how much they depend on an intact, functioning society around them. Sure, if they get a generator, they can have electricity in their home when the grid collapses. However, without the grid there is no water coming into the home...at least not clean water.

And that's just one of the effects.

Around here water would not be a problem as most people have their own well. But .. if this is a nation wide break down where would they get a long term supply of gas or propane to run the generator? Storing enough fuel for a few days, or even a couple of weeks may be feasible but then what?

 

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Any thoughts?

Several. Maybe your wife can ask her nutty friends a couple of questions...

My wife has been getting worried lately because her friend has been unloading on her with lots of doomsday prepper rhetoric. Lately, she's become more worried because her friend said that her husband has also attended survival classes with her and has likewise assembled a "bugout bag" so they can be ready to leave at a moment's notice.

This has always been one of my favorites. Leave to go where, exactly? If society collapses, and there are food shortages, you pack up what you can carry and go live in the woods(?) or someplace. All the food you can carry lasts you what, a week? Two weeks? A month? Then what? Or if the Chinese invade and decide to kill all the Americans so their people have more space to live, you go and hide out in the woods and after a week/month/whatever, you're out of food. Now what? You can go back to the city, get captured and executed, or die a long, slow death in the woods from starvation. What have you accomplished? Either way you're dead, but I guess in one scenario you got to live for an extra two weeks, wet, freezing at night and covered in bugs.

I asked my wife what exactly it was they were worried about. She said the fear was that Obama was trying to incite nationwide rioting, and once he had that going he was going to declare martial law. From there, he will...I don't know. Take over, I guess.

So he's going to overthrow himself? Will he also throw himself into prison?

As a result, the monetary system was going to collapse and there would be food shortages. It was thus a good idea to keep lots of cash available.

So now, besides having to carry a months worth of food into the woods, you have to carry an extra 100 pounds of money?