Premonition?

[Humphreys]

Neither this response nor any other has yet addressed my question: "Assuming that there is something supernatural about premonitions, how would that ever be proven to your satisfaction?

With billions of people in the world, we should expect countless cases like the one you cited above, except they would be cases where we can prove the prediciton was made before the event, unlike your example above

You miss the point, anyway. There may not be a way of proving that premonitions are real, but if indistinguishable from coincidence, there is still no good eason to believe in them.

Assuming that invisible fairies are responsible for what we call gravity, how would that ever be proven to your satisfaction?

 

[Rodney]

With billions of people in the world, we should expect countless cases like the one you cited above, except they would be cases where we can prove the prediciton was made before the event, unlike your example above

You miss the point, anyway. There may not be a way of proving that premonitions are real, but if indistinguishable from coincidence, there is still no good eason to believe in them.

Assuming that invisible fairies are responsible for what we call gravity, how would that ever be proven to your satisfaction?

So if it is proven that the Wikipedia account of David Booth's having 10 consecutive nights of dreams of a DC-10 losing an engine and crashing just prior to AA Flight 191 doing just that in Chicago is proven accurate, you would still consider Booth's dreams to be a coincidence? If so, give me an example of what it would take to convince you that there is such a thing as a premonitory dream.

 

[Moochie]

So if it is proven that the Wikipedia account of David Booth's having 10 consecutive nights of dreams of a DC-10 losing an engine and crashing just prior to AA Flight 191 doing just that in Chicago is proven accurate, you would still consider Booth's dreams to be a coincidence? If so, give me an example of what it would take to convince you that there is such a thing as a premonitory dream.

If there were any verifiable truth to this (Booth's) story, don't you think it would have been keenly documented?

And, assuming he had these dreams, what makes anyone think they were in relation to "AA Flight 191"? Did he dream this actual detail?

M.

 

[Humphreys]

So if it is proven that the Wikipedia account of David Booth's having 10 consecutive nights of dreams of a DC-10 losing an engine and crashing just prior to AA Flight 191 doing just that in Chicago is proven accurate, you would still consider Booth's dreams to be a coincidence? If so, give me an example of what it would take to convince you that there is such a thing as a premonitory dream.

Quite possibly, yes.

If so, give me an example of what it would take to convince you that there is such a thing as a premonitory dream.

I've already answered this. We'd have to take examples like these cumulatively until it became ridiculous to put them down to chance, and even then it would be little more than a matter of opinion.

Now, you tell me, how do you prove the opposite?

How do you distinguish this from chance? If you can't, why go against parsimony and accept something supernatural over the natural?

Remember, it is not the skeptic's job to prove this couldn't have been a premonition, rather it is the believer's job to prove it couldn't have been down to chance. Don't irrationally pass the onus of proof, please.

 

[Ivor the Engineer]

I think that it’s possible to see a future. However, I don’t think it’s possible to see the future. It would be a real waste of time to see the future that could not change (a.k.a. Cassandra Complex in the film Twelve Monkeys), wouldn’t it?

As for road junctions, I have visions of what might happen before I get to them all the time. These visions of what might be are what cause me to slow down or at least ready myself to slam on the brakes. Fortunately I’ve never ended up in one of my scarier visions of a future.

Given that there are ~6 billion people having visions of the future all day and night I’m sure that there are a lot of them who end up in a future they had a vision of in a (day)dream.

 

[aggle-rithm]

So if it is proven that the Wikipedia account of David Booth's having 10 consecutive nights of dreams of a DC-10 losing an engine and crashing just prior to AA Flight 191 doing just that in Chicago is proven accurate, you would still consider Booth's dreams to be a coincidence? If so, give me an example of what it would take to convince you that there is such a thing as a premonitory dream.

Quite simple. All the person has to do is to declare, after having the dream but before the event happens, what the dream specifically is predicting. This eliminates the most common mundane explanation for premonitory dreams, which is that the pattern of the event is only recognized and linked to the dream AFTER it happens. Since dreams are poorly remembered and memories are subject to change over time (especially poorly remembered ones), and also since dreams have a very symbolic feel, there are a large number of incidences that might trigger a memory of a particular dream.

The other stipulation is that this must be repeatable so that a pattern of being able to predict the future is established. This would remove the other mundane explanation, that it is just a coincidence.

 

[Rodney]

I've already answered this. We'd have to take examples like these cumulatively until it became ridiculous to put them down to chance, and even then it would be little more than a matter of opinion.

So your belief that there is no such thing as a premonition can never be falsified?

Now, you tell me, how do you prove the opposite?

How do you distinguish this from chance? If you can't, why go against parsimony and accept something supernatural over the natural?

I try to evaluate the evidence as objectively as possible and use the rule of reason. Outside of this group, most people would consider a verification of the Wikipedia account regarding Booth's dreams as proof enough.

Remember, it is not the skeptic's job to prove this couldn't have been a premonition, rather it is the believer's job to prove it couldn't have been down to chance. Don't irrationally pass the onus of proof, please.

Why the Us vs. Them mentality? Why not a simple quest for the truth?

 

[Rodney]

Quite simple. All the person has to do is to declare, after having the dream but before the event happens, what the dream specifically is predicting. This eliminates the most common mundane explanation for premonitory dreams, which is that the pattern of the event is only recognized and linked to the dream AFTER it happens. Since dreams are poorly remembered and memories are subject to change over time (especially poorly remembered ones), and also since dreams have a very symbolic feel, there are a large number of incidences that might trigger a memory of a particular dream.

Your point has some validity, but it's generally not possible to declare precisely what the dream is predicting. If David Booth had known every detail regarding AA Flight 191, presumably he would have telephoned American Airlines at O'Hare Airport on May 25, 1979 and told them that the number one engine was going to fall off on takeoff.

The other stipulation is that this must be repeatable so that a pattern of being able to predict the future is established. This would remove the other mundane explanation, that it is just a coincidence.

Why does a premonition by a given person have to be repeatable for it to be considered valid? It may be that Booth, Lincoln, and many others have had only one premonitory dream in their lives, but if those dreams are documented in advance, why should they be discounted?

 

[aggle-rithm]

Your point has some validity, but it's generally not possible to declare precisely what the dream is predicting.

I agree 100%. That's why I don't believe that dreams tell the future.

Why does a premonition by a given person have to be repeatable for it to be considered valid? It may be that Booth, Lincoln, and many others have had only one premonitory dream in their lives, but if those dreams are documented in advance, why should they be discounted?

I thought I'd made it clear: One time is a coincidence. There is nothing paranormal going on there. If it's repeatable, then something interesting is definitely going on.

I suppose a single dream would have more weight if it were very specific about what was going to happen. But, as you have said, that usually isn't the case. Usually, the clues in dreams are disjointed, like when someone dreams about a car crash and an apartment numbered 821, then thinks the dream was a premonition because flight 821 crashed the next day.

The "fuzzy" nature of dreams is the very REASON people think they tell the future -- because so many things can be interpreted to fit the dream.

 

[Starrman]

Rodney,

Do you agree that a number of dreams every night will, by chance alone, seem to predict the future acurately?

 

[fls]

Neither this response nor any other has yet addressed my question: "Assuming that there is something supernatural about premonitions, how would that ever be proven to your satisfaction?

Through the results of rigorous investigation.

Linda

 

[Sunstar]

Starrman re

Let me ask you this - do you think it would be possible for none of the billions of dreams that occur every night to come true, by chance alone?

Hello Starrman,

Of course there are lots of chance events that could explain the occurance of these dreams in mundane terms. But i think you missed 2 of my crucial points (not to mention that it is probably statistically incorrect to say that "billions" of dreams happen).

I have previously said that chance can explain anything. That is point number one.

Point number two is that when these "events" occur there is some type of feeling associated with them that i cannot possibly describe but which is definitely of a qualitative flavour that is not what i would call "normal".

I invite anyone to offer me explanations for these things.

 

[Rodney]

Rodney,
Do you agree that a number of dreams every night will, by chance alone, seem to predict the future acurately?

Sure, if they're vague enough. But Lincoln's well-documented dream of his assassination was not vague and neither was David Booth's (I'm not sure how well-documented) repeated dream of an engine falling off a DC-10. Also, how many people remember their dreams and inform somebody of them? So, while there may be billions of dreams worldwide every night, the number that are documented in any way is a tiny fraction of that.

 

[RandomElement]

(Not to FLS)

Troll? Not hardly. I left because there is more noise and aggression than rational discussion which is conducive to nothing at all except for folks working out their inner turmoil on a stranger.

Final repetititive note as quite a few struggle with clear and unambiguous statements: I have NEVER slammed on the brakes in my life without cause except for this one time. Sudden hard braking when approaching a green light is a near-certain way to get rear-ended and does not construe "defensive driving" in any remote definition of the term.

Does my anecdote "prove" premonition? Of course not. The point was my action was totally out of character and certainly saved me from serious harm and I found it intriguiging (as would most of you) whatever the case. Fair enough?

I understand many of you of are tired of magical claims, but to pretend every person with a seemingly unusual story is an enemy or a target is just plain puerile. The amount of abuse here will direct me elsewhere so you can bash each other 'til your hearts content.

To those who posted thoughtful and even-keeled replies - I thank you and will consider your suggestions and observations.

*Troll out*

 

[Reno]

I will miss his insightful and thought-provoking posts.

 

[Starrman]

Sure, if they're vague enough. But Lincoln's well-documented dream of his assassination was not vague and neither was David Booth's (I'm not sure how well-documented) repeated dream of an engine falling off a DC-10. Also, how many people remember their dreams and inform somebody of them? So, while there may be billions of dreams worldwide every night, the number that are documented in any way is a tiny fraction of that.

Don't you think someone like Lincoln would be prone to dreaming of assassinations? Especially a President that was so controversial in his day? How many times did he dream of assassins and it didn't come to pass? You also failed to note that Lincoln did not dream his assassination, he had a dream about visiting his own funeral. No specifics as to how he was killed were related. Also of note is that it wasn't Lincoln himself who documented his own dream, it was related through his bodyguard. Also of note is that Lincoln beleived that it was not him, but someone else who was being buried in the dream, from WIKI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ward_Hill_Lamon):

It is worth noting that, according to Lamon, Lincoln didn't believe the dream was of his own death:

Once the President alluded to this terrible dream with some show of playful humor. "Hill," said he, "your apprehension of harm to me from some hidden enemy is downright foolishness. For a long time you have been trying to keep somebody—the Lord knows who—from killing me. Don't you see how it will turn out? In this dream it was not me, but some other fellow, that was killed. It seems that this ghostly assassin tried his hand on some one else." (Lamon 1895, 116-117)


How many times has Booth made dream predictions that haven't come to pass? It just seems that the documentation only comes after the fact - or have you found something to back up the Wikipedia article on Booth?

 

[Starrman]

Here is some other information on Booth:

http://www.greatdreams.com/venus.htm

DAVID BOOTH PREDICTION

David Booth - proven psychic- had a vision in March of 2003. He saw himself in space, looking down on the earth. He saw a dark, planetary object coming from the south end of earth - out of the southern Hemisphere. As this planetary object came past earth, the size of which would fit between the earth and the moon - he saw the western end of the U.S. blow up with fire and blasts of smoke and ash. From there, the whole earth rippled. Yellowstone had blown up.
--------------------------------

Clarified here - it was supposed to have occurred on June 8th 2004.

http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/aspie/trueorfalse/davidbooth23022004.html

-------------------------------

More information here - not too impressive:

http://www.zetatalk.com/index/booth.htm

The question is - with all of the crazy predictions psychics make and have made over the years, even if this one is true, is it really beyond the laws of chance? Wouldn't it be MORE surprising if they never got one right? Does anything paranormal really need to be in place for this prediction to have occurred, assuming it happened exactly as Wiki stated?

 

[aggle-rithm]

Don't you think someone like Lincoln would be prone to dreaming of assassinations? Especially a President that was so controversial in his day? How many times did he dream of assassins and it didn't come to pass? You also failed to note that Lincoln did not dream his assassination, he had a dream about visiting his own funeral. No specifics as to how he was killed were related. Also of note is that it wasn't Lincoln himself who documented his own dream, it was related through his bodyguard. Also of note is that Lincoln beleived that it was not him, but someone else who was being buried in the dream, from WIKI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ward_Hill_Lamon):

It is worth noting that, according to Lamon, Lincoln didn't believe the dream was of his own death:

Once the President alluded to this terrible dream with some show of playful humor. "Hill," said he, "your apprehension of harm to me from some hidden enemy is downright foolishness. For a long time you have been trying to keep somebody—the Lord knows who—from killing me. Don't you see how it will turn out? In this dream it was not me, but some other fellow, that was killed. It seems that this ghostly assassin tried his hand on some one else." (Lamon 1895, 116-117)


How many times has Booth made dream predictions that haven't come to pass? It just seems that the documentation only comes after the fact - or have you found something to back up the Wikipedia article on Booth?

Something like half a million Americans were killed while Lincoln was President. Hmmmm... I wonder why he would have a dream about death...?

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Your point has some validity, but it's generally not possible to declare precisely what the dream is predicting.

What you're describing is shoehorning. If it's not clear what something is "predicting" until after the fact, then it is not a prediction. Cold readers and remote-viewers make much of this technique.

 

[Cuddles]

Seriously? What was the prize?

Read the [rule 8] manual.