Predicting the Future is a Reality - Using Mathematics and the Moon

Again, any explanation can be retro-fitted to mined market data to produce solid evidence that the market will behave in a specific way. Astoundingly, all of these methods produce exact results when compared to the periods used to deduce the method. Sometimes these time periods seem sufficiently long, other times they are woefully inadequate to even an idiot. Unfortunately, the idiots are usually bankrolled.
 
Robert Gordon said:
According to who? How many hours have you applied to the OP research?

Also Sagan researched the wrong mechanisms such as gravity....not the more convincing mechanisms of low frequency vibration of electromagnetics.

"That we can now think of no mechanism for astrology is relevant but unconvincing. No mechanism was known, for example, for continental drift when it was proposed by Wegener. Nevertheless, we see that Wegener was right, and those who objected on the grounds of unavailable mechanism were wrong."
- Carl Sagan
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I find few things as annoying as abused Sagan quotes. :(
 
Kaarjuus said:
If you put spaces in the URL, you can post it. Then others can simply copy-paste it and remove the spaces to go to the URL.

Like so: ww w. google.com
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Very handy.

After all, working out how to post URLs on a forum that won't let you is way more difficult than predicting stock prices.

Anyway...Mooning the stock market sounds like fun...can't wait for the pictures.

.
 
Dave1001 said:
Good website on the study of irrationality levels in the market, and how they vary, etc.? Writings that take a global perspective on the phenomena?
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Oh, I would argue that the level of irrationality with regards to the market are fairly high, at least in the short term. I think the market tends to correct for that, as stupid investments tend to fail, and smart ones tend to do well, but individual investors can be exceedingly irrational.

I don't know of a specific web site that studies irrationality levels, but it has been written about:

http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/news/shiller/rjs_00-05-11_abc_geo-will.htm

http://www.informatics.indiana.edu/fil/CAS/PPT/Rietz/ (discusses rationality and traders)

http://paolonalin.ionmetrix.com/doc/EMH_trading.pdf (More about the concept of market efficiency and "beating the market")

One only needs to look at the dotcom boom of the 90's to see that investors do not always (or even often) act rationally, but I think that given such obvious evidence that the moon predicts stocks/futures/whatever (as the OP appears to indicate), investors would be drawn to the investments that were indicated.

Ironically, the same thing would probably happen if enough people believed that this was true, but the end results would not be the same, as the businesses selected would have a chance of failing.

I actually researched the companies mentioned by the OP:

Calendar Research (http://www.calendarresearch.com/): Apparently claims they can predict "mob psychology," as well as forecast bonds. There diagrams seem to mix in standard trend lines with claims of predictions and some stuff about the moon thrown in for good measure. Based in Georgia.

Financial Matrix, Ltd. (http://www.themarketmatrix.co.uk/? http://www.financialmatrix.co.nz/?): The first one is some UK-based "training system" that talks vaguely about market math and something about the universe. The second company is a New Zealand financial planning company that says nothing about the moon or anything of the sort. I cannot find a Wall Street- or US-based company by this name.

Delta Society, International (http://www.deltasociety.com/): Also claims to be able to predict markets, based on something they call the "delta cycle" or something like that. Lots of BS about "natural order of markets" and such. Does not talk about the moon, as far as I can tell, but what they teach is almost as woo-esque. Based in North Carolina.
 
Well, let's not let this thread go to waste. What stocks should I buy today if I wanted to sell them next week at a profit?
 
Fnord said:
I think El Noob is referring to the woo-theory of the Schumann effect...
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No, no, no. He's not talking about EM waves, he's talking about the vibration of electromagnetics. Clearly we are supposed to find something electromagnetic like, say, a torch, and shake it. Very slowly.

I have to admit I'm not entirely sure why just yet.
 
JonnyFive said:
Robert, I would like to pose a very specific question to you:

-If this method actually works, then why are these people teaching it rather than using it to get rich off of the stock market and retire?

Also:

-If this method actually works, do you know how it would affect the market in the long run as word of it spread around?


You see, Robert, I actually work on Wall Street. Specifically, I work in insurance risk management. I also have at least a passing familiarity with basic economics, including the basics of how the stock market works. As with any kind of "beat the market" tactic, there are logical reasons why, if this actually worked, the market would not exist in the form it does now.

Principally, uncertainty is a huge part of the stock market. A lot of what makes larger returns possible with stocks is the higher risk involved, as investors must be given a higher return as incentive to invest their money in businesses with a higher risk of going out of business and losing the money the investors put into them. A diversified stock portfolio will have a mix of lower risk/lower return investments to counter the higher risk/higher return ones. If played correctly, over the peaks and dips of the market, it can (but doesn't always) result in higher average returns than, say, government bonds.

What you're proposing, if it worked as advertised, would essentially remove that element of the equation. Any rational investor would only pick the stocks that would succeed, based on the magic formulas. All other stocks would, by virtue of us being able to see the future, be guaranteed to fail, so no rational investor would put money in them.

Thus, the risk is taken out of the investment, so the only thing you're left with is the idea of current money being worth more than future money, due to inflation, lost investment opportunities, etc.

Thus, stocks would end up, assuming the ability to predict the winners and losers, just like government bonds. You would earn a little bit of a return to compensate you for the lost opportunity and value of your money due to time, and nothing else.

So, even if this worked, it would only provide substantial benefits if no one knew about it except for a few insiders. Otherwise, it would fundamentally alter the market due to the negated effect of risk, which is currently a huge element of the entire financial industry.

It's a stupid idea - that you can get rich by investing only in winning stocks and make huge returns. Huge returns exist because of risk. Predicting the future negates risk. Therefore, predicting the future negates huge returns.

You might as well just invest in government bonds and save yourself the consulting fees.

Now post evidence, please.
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I had to nominate this. It's just that awesome :D

(And being able to predict mob mentality? Is that sheeple, or gambino?)
 
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