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Predict the UK election result.

Predict the result of UK General Election 2017

  • Conservative majority of 100+

    Votes: 7 10.9%

  • Conservative majority of 76 to 100

    Votes: 4 6.3%

  • Conservative majority of 51 to 75

    Votes: 9 14.1%

  • Conservative majority of 26 to 50

    Votes: 7 10.9%

  • Conservative majority of 1 to 25

    Votes: 14 21.9%

  • Hung parliament

    Votes: 19 29.7%

  • Labour majority of 1 to 25

    Votes: 3 4.7%

  • Labour majority of 26 to 50

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Labour majority of 51 to 75

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Labour majority of 76 to 100

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Labour majority of 100+

    Votes: 1 1.6%
  • Total voters
    64
  • Poll closed .

MikeG

Now. Do it now.
MikeG
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
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Location
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We'll know for certain in a few days time, so here is your chance to make a public prediction. The poll is public, so we can see see who voted for what, and it is one vote each.

As an aside, it'd be interesting to have your predictions for the Lib Dem result. I reckon they'll be down to 4 or 5 MPs.
 
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Labour to make a surprising* rally and gain considerably more votes than expected, but not enough actual seats to take it away from the Conservatives who make a majority with a comfortable 60-70 seats to spare. SNP continue to utterly dominate in Scotland, Lib Dems and Greens make no noticeable impact, UKIP evaporates.

*depending on what surprises you
 
A Conservative majority of 138 seats (I did bet on 168 seats when the election was announced but that seems too many now).
 
Well, the poll was supposed to be public. Looks like I pressed the wrong button somewhere. I've asked to mods to fix it, but I don't know if that's possible post hoc.
 
MikeG said:
Well, the poll was supposed to be public. Looks like I pressed the wrong button somewhere. I've asked to mods to fix it, but I don't know if that's possible post hoc.
Click to expand...

Seems to be public until you vote
 
I can see who has voted by clicking on the number of votes; can you do that or is it a mod privilege? As far as I can see the poll is set to public.
 
Agatha said:
I can see who has voted by clicking on the number of votes; can you do that or is it a mod privilege? As far as I can see the poll is set to public.
Click to expand...

Oooh yes, that works. Thanks. Odd, as I am sure that I have voted in other polls and been able to see who has voted where without having to click on anything.
 
Architect said:
SNP 42 seats.
Click to expand...

I think they'll do better than that, but I suspect that 2015 was the high water mark for them. I'd expect the Conservatives to gain around 8 to 10 seats in Scotland, and the Libs to lose theirs. Scotland to remain very much SNP territory, but chipped away at slightly.
 
I'm going for a Conservative majority of a shade under what they have. Just for fun. However, the realist in me thinks the Labour surge based on a youth vote will turn out to be illusory as they fail to show up at the polls.
 
MikeG said:
Oooh yes, that works. Thanks. Odd, as I am sure that I have voted in other polls and been able to see who has voted where without having to click on anything.
Click to expand...

Some oddity of the forum software.

I voted hung parliament on the basis that it's so volatile.

Labour might motivate the youth vote.

Labour might fail to motivate the youth vote.

A good many Brexiteers might regret their vote.

A good many Brexiteers might harden their stance.

Unforeseen events might sway votes one direction or the other, like Manchester.

Some voters might want to distance themselves from Trumpetry.

And so forth.

There are just too many variables.
 
I voted hung Parliament more in hope than expectation. The recent drop in Tory ratings plus recent more statesmanlike performances from Corbyn may swing the Labour vote just enough that combined with SNP and LibDem they wipe out the Tory majority.

I reckon the LibDems will manage four or five seats, and I expect the SNP to get about 45. But I've been wrong before, which is why I'm not a betting woman.
 
Question is how many voters are buying the "New Corbyn". IMHO a good debate performance and a more moderate tone for the last few weeks will not be enough to change the perception of him as someone unfit to be prime minister. The Tories will win, but will not have the kind of landslide they would have a few weeks ago. That was due largely to Tory missteps then in any action on the part of Labor.
IF Corbyn were not the face of Labor, Labor would have a much rosier election prospects.
 
dudalb said:
Question is how many voters are buying the "New Corbyn". IMHO a good debate performance and a more moderate tone for the last few weeks will not be enough to change the perception of him as someone unfit to be prime minister. The Tories will win, but will not have the kind of landslide they would have a few weeks ago. That was due largely to Tory missteps then in any action on the part of Labor.
IF Corbyn were not the face of Labor, Labor would have a much rosier election prospects.
Click to expand...

Ha! Rosier! Nice one. ;)
 
I agree, dudalb; under a better leader Labour would have a good chance of a majority. Corbyn is tainted both by his past and by his cronies (Abbott, McDonnell). I really don't want to see five more years of Tory cuts to vital public services (and personally I've had some very difficult times recently with the hoops I have to jump through to claim the disability allowances to which I'm entitled) but I don't see Corbyn as a viable PM.

At the start of the campaign my constituency was predicted by www.electoralcalculus.co.uk to have a 61% chance of being a CON gain from LAB (bearing in mind the margin in 2015 was just 1883 votes). As of today, that chance is down to 55%.
 
Well, a couple of weeks ago I'd have said 100+ majority for the Tories. But after a couple of spectacular own goals and a generally not good campaign by them, I said Tories 1-25 majority.

And I'm thinking it will be closer to 1 than 25. A lot closer.

And even at that, I'm being optimistic.

(Or pessimistic, depending on how you look at it, I guess.)
 
I am in the 1 to 25 bracket.

I think SNP will drop a fair few but at the end of the day it will still be a resounding win regardless of what the media will try and portray. It wasn't long ago they only had 6 seats.
 
I put a 51-75 Tory majority. The terrorist attack will have a rally around the flag effect for Conservatives which will not dissipate before Thursday and many media outlets are bashing Corbyn for some of his stupider ideas, driving up the Conservative voter participation.

I hope I'm wrong, but that's where I think things stand right now.

McHrozni
 
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