Post-revolution polls in Egypt

[A'isha]

Here's what the most recent poll says

As the article notes, that poll was taken before El-Shater threw his hat in the ring.

There's been a lot of talk about how the army and the Brotherhood are pumping up the influence of the Salafists in order to position themselves as the preferable choice. "Look what will happen to Egypt if you don't support us!"

Mubarak did the exact same thing, so it's not even a case of the army doing something new in the post-Arab Spring era. They're just doing the same old thing. And the Brotherhood has, until very recently, been firmly on the side of the military and their SCAF puppet-council.

It seems the Brotherhood thinks they have a good chance at taking over the whole show instead of just being big fish in the small pond that the military wants to keep Egyptian politics and parliament confined to, and have decided to not just shut out everyone else on the Constituent Council to write a new constitution (leaving them in control of the whole process and causing reformist groups, the Coptic Church, and even Al-Azhar to walk out), but also run for Mubarak's old job.

And while the military might have been content to work with the Brotherhood to keep control (as long as they themselves remained on top), they aren't pleased with the prospect of the Brotherhood taking over from them. SCAF's Advisory Council just rejected the Brotherhood-dominated Constituent Assembly (especially after reformist groups, the Coptic Church, and even Al-Azhar University pulled out when it was clear that the Brotherhood was shutting them out of the process), and looks as if there's a good chance that they're going to dissolve the whole thing and force a do-over.

This change is also apparently causing issues within the Brotherhood, with at least one Brotherhood leader, Kamal Helbawy, resigning due to El-Shater's candidacy and accusing the Brotherhood of actually "selling out" to the military by letting them keep true control in return for showpiece control over the presidency, specifically citing the Brotherhood's acceptance of the proposed constitutional provision which would give the military full and unappealable control of presidential elections (something that every reformist group seeking the end of military control completely rejects).

So who really knows what's going on?

 

[Kestrel]

And here it thought democracy was about what The People voted for. But then again most of you democrats only seem intent on supporting democracy out of convenience and not out any honest and sincere respect for others wishes.

If the Egyptians want a 'moderate Islamist' government (which just seems like a form of Christian Democracy, but you know, Islamic) who are you, or anyone else for that matter, to object?

A large percentage of the US population doesn't understand that Islam comes in as many flavors as Christianity. They view the Egyptian Brotherhood as equivalent to the Taliban.

 

[Mark6]

Reading first page of this thread and the last page makes for quite a contrast.

 

[Eddie Dane]

Reading first page of this thread and the last page makes for quite a contrast.

Yup,

It started when the liberal young people with Facebook accounts started protesting.
Then hurried elections were set up. the Islamists made a deal with the army and the yet un organised liberal forces were hindered by the army and secret service.
So, the Islamists got free reign. I suspect they would have done better with the semi-illiterate masses in the slums anyway.

So, we seem to be getting a behind-the-scenes power-sharing deal between the military/secret service and the Islamists.

Lovely.

Will they really scrap the peace deal with Israel?

That would be the tripple-whammy of war, no more Obama bucks and no more tourism.

 

[Mark6]

That would be the tripple-whammy of war, no more Obama bucks and no more tourism.

And extreme prosperity, thanks to no trade with the West!

 

[Eddie Dane]

And extreme prosperity, thanks to no trade with the West!

Well, there's that.

I'm sure it really offsets the other three problems.

At least they'll have their hands free to do business with Asia.
I hear there's big money in sand export, the Chinese upper class can't get enough of the stuff. And wait till China, Turkey and Vietnam hear about all that cheap labour that Egypt can tap into. They'll be beating down the door with their electronics, cars and textiles.

 

[A'isha]

This article in the recent (March/April 2012) issue of World Affairs does a pretty good job at explaining why the "contrast" between the first and last pages of this thread (and its equivalent everywhere else this discussion took place) happened - ie, why the Islamists dominated the elections in Egypt against expectations.

I don't necessarily agree with everything the article says, but it's definitely worth reading.

 

[Virus]

A supremacist thug that butts his head on the ground is exactly what you would expect a pathetic civilization to vote into power.

 

[Cleon]

A supremacist thug that butts his head on the ground is exactly what you would expect a pathetic civilization to vote into power.

Your in-depth knowledge of the culture, history, and issues facing Egyptian society continues to educate us all.

 

[A'isha]

I'm glad that the situation in Egypt is nothing more to you than an opportunity for you to feel justified in your smug bigotry, Virus. I wish I were that lucky.

Instead, I get to feel worried and sick every time I hear about how the Salafists are gaining in dominance, or how the Muslim Brotherhood is poised to take control of the country, or how much the Islamists will change the country for the worse. Because I don't know what that will mean for my relatives there, especially my cousin Lailah Abdallah and her family, but I'm pretty sure it won't be anything good.

(She's the one in the center, in case you couldn't tell)

 

[Virus]

Not my fault Egypt has a penchant for steering itself off a cliff.

 

[Darth Rotor]

So how do you want to stop them becoming a brutal theocracy?

Why bother stopping that from happening?

Also, WHO is supposed to do the stopping, and how?

Is it worth the effort?

No.

EDIT:
ANTPogo, thanks for the link, interesting read.

As to your relatives, you are reminded that change will happen, but not all change is benign. (Ask any Sunni Iraqi).

That said, don't give up hope.

The electoral system chosen also gave a clear advantage to the smaller rural governates at the expense of Cairo. Since the system required two candidates in each individual-seat district and double that number in each party-list district, the governates were allocated seats in multiples of six. This meant that the smallest governate received six seats. A governate like Matruh, which demographically should have received two seats, got six. A governate like Fayyoum was allocated eighteen seats instead of fourteen, while Bani Suef got eighteen instead of fifteen. All of this came at the expense of the urban centers, especially greater Cairo, which was allocated forty-one fewer seats than it should have had according to population. In total, the urban centers were deprived of fifty-eight seats.

Not so sure that's a bad thing.

 

[Puppycow]

Egypt disqualifies top Islamists, Mubarak VP from vote

(Reuters) - The race for the Egyptian presidency took a dramatic turn on Saturday when the authorities disqualified front-runners including Hosni Mubarak's spy chief, a Muslim Brotherhood candidate and a Salafi preacher whose lawyer warned that "a major crisis" was looming.

The presidential election is the climax of a transition to civilian rule being led by the military council that assumed power from Mubarak on February 11, 2011 at the height of the uprising against his three decades in power.

The generals are due to hand power to the elected president on July 1.

The disqualifications add to the drama of a transition punctuated by spasms of violence and now mired in bitter political rivalries between once-banned Islamists, secular-minded reformists and remnants of the Mubarak order.

Farouk Sultan, head of the presidential election commission, told Reuters a total of 10 of the 23 candidates had been disqualified from the race. They have 48 hours to appeal.

Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, the Salafi, was disqualified because his mother held U.S. citizenship, the state news agency reported, confirming previous reports fiercely denied by the Islamist who says he is the victim of a plot.

So I guess we don't have to worry about the Islamist taking over anymore.

Not a very democratic way to go about things though.

 

[Puppycow]

9 Killed as Fierce Clashes Erupt in Egypt Ahead of Vote

 

[A'isha]

It really looks as if the army, despite having gotten rid of Mubarak, is not going to let go of its grip on power to anyone, no matter what the past parliamentary elections said and the upcoming presidential elections might say.

 

[geni]

A supremacist thug that butts his head on the ground is exactly what you would expect a pathetic civilization to vote into power.

This is not the thread to disscuss Australian politics.

 

[geni]

It really looks as if the army, despite having gotten rid of Mubarak, is not going to let go of its grip on power to anyone, no matter what the past parliamentary elections said and the upcoming presidential elections might say.

Well they've got things setup very nicely at the moment. Throw in their degree of wider integration with the economy and it is hard to see how they could be removed from power in a clean manner.

 

[Travis]

In uncertain times the uneducated or unsophisticated tend to gravitate towards those that claim to have all the answers. And religious radicals are great at promising they have all the answers.

So really this all shouldn't surprise anyone.

 

[Puppycow]

So the big day has finally arrived:

Egyptians vote in landmark presidential election

Egyptians are voting in their first free presidential election, 15 months after ousting Hosni Mubarak in the Arab Spring uprising.

Fifty million people are eligible to vote, and large queues have formed at some polling stations.

The military council which assumed presidential power in February 2011 has promised a fair vote and civilian rule.

The election pits Islamists against secularists, and revolutionaries against Mubarak-era ministers.

. . .

The frontrunners are:

Ahmed Shafiq, a former commander of the air force and briefly prime minister during February 2011 protests
Amr Moussa, who has served as foreign minister and head of the Arab League
Mohammed Mursi, who heads Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party
Abdul Moneim Aboul Fotouh, an independent Islamist candidate

Until a new constitution is approved it is unclear what powers the president will have, prompting fears of friction with a military which seems determined to retain its powerful position.

. . .

A run-off vote is scheduled for 16 and 17 June if there is no outright winner.

 

[Spindrift]

I'm not very confident this is going to turn out that well. The military is entrenched in the economy of the country. The army owns factories, resorts and all kinds of stuff. I don't think they are going to allow just anyone to take over.