Post-revolution polls in Egypt

Would you expect a culture that exhibited these traits to be successful, dynamic, vibrant and innovative?

That's why Egypt is what it is. It's not going to change until the people there change.

Democracy doesn't create good societies. Good societies create democracies.
 
Would you expect a culture that exhibited these traits to be successful, dynamic, vibrant and innovative?

That's why Egypt is what it is. It's not going to change until the people there change.

Democracy doesn't create good societies. Good societies create democracies.

All your deflection won't change the fact that the superior Soviet culture had permanent space stations while the most notable accomplishment of the inferior Australian culture to date has been the Crocodile Hunter getting his own TV show.
 
In other news, initial election results have the Brotherhood's candidate Mohammed Morsi pretty much locking up a spot in the runoff with 26% of the vote. This is barely half the percentage that the Brotherhood was able to garner in parliamentary elections, likely reflecting disillusionment with the Brotherhood itself (especially after they broke their promise not to run a candidate in the presidential elections at all). The second spot in the runoff is still a tossup between Mubarak's last prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, with 23% of the vote, and the secular leftist candidate, Hamdeen Sabahi, with 20% of the vote.

The candidate you described as the "front runner", Virus, Abdel-Moneim Abolfotoh, is listed as down in fourth place, with 19% of the vote, and is unlikely to secure a spot in the runoff.
 
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The second spot in the runoff is still a tossup between Mubarak's last prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, with 23% of the vote, and the secular leftist candidate, Hamdeen Sabahi, with 20% of the vote.

So 43% of the vote went to secularist candidates. I'd say that's a fairly positive development.
 
Or, combining Shafiq and Morsi, you've got 49% voting for autocrats, Shafiq representing a return to Mubarak-style thuggery and Morsi representing fundamentalist oppression.

Lots of ways to look at these figures.
 
How about beer?

Without Egypt there would be no Foster's, no VB, no Carlton Draught, no Cascade, no XXXX!
Pyramids, reed-based paper (Egypt supplied writing materials for the Greek and Roman civilisations), and now beer! Is there no limit to the debt we owe to he ingenious inhabitants of that land?
 
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Pyramids, reed-based paper (Egypt supplied writing materials for the Greek and Roman civilisations), and now beer! Is there no limit to the debt we owe to he ingenious inhabitants of that land?

Ages ago.
 
Ages ago.
Ah, so when you demand
Name a single accomplishment of Egypt that the rest of the world took notice of
and we give you examples, you then add a further condition. Virus, please say what you mean. Your sardonic one liners are a little too short. Think things through first, cover all the points you wish people to consider, and then set down your message. That's my humble advice.
 
Ages ago.

Well, Egypt is home to Orascom which according to its site is:

We promise to provide up to date, innovative, high-quality, cost effective and easy to use services enabling individuals and businesses to Buy and Sell using the first and strongest online portal providing E-commerce services and technologies

http://www.otventures.com/docs/main.htm?SoftParam=true

They also managed to put the glass panelling on North Korea's Ryugon Hotel.

topImage.jpg


Which rather frighteningly appears to be the model for London's latest monstrous carbuncle:

Shard_London_Bridge_night_and_day.jpg
 
All your deflection won't change the fact that the superior Soviet culture had permanent space stations while the most notable accomplishment of the inferior Australian culture to date has been the Crocodile Hunter getting his own TV show.

That's not entirely fair. I mean, there's also Crocodile Dundee and Yahoo Serious.
 
Or, combining Shafiq and Morsi, you've got 49% voting for autocrats, Shafiq representing a return to Mubarak-style thuggery and Morsi representing fundamentalist oppression.

It's all but official that the runoff is going to be between Shafiq and Morsi. And the above description is pretty much exactly how Egyptians are seeing the choice.

"Whoever wins, we lose."
 
Strange that none of the polls had Morsi as a frontrunner. Or even in second. Most had his support in single digits.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_presidential_election,_2012#Opinion_polls

Were these polls not done scientifically?

It's more that the situation was too fluid and confused to be actually measured with any sort of reliability. As noted by the director of the poll Virus alluded to (but couldn't actually be bothered to look up...apparently research skills aren't among his Superior Cultural Values),

University of Maryland Anwar Sadat Professor Shibley Telhami directed the poll, which was fielded by JZ Analytic between May 4 and May 10. The poll surveyed a nationally representative sample of 772, and has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.6 percent.

"The situation on the ground is changing by the day," says principal investigator Shibley Telhami, a University of Maryland political scientist who conducts regular polling across the Middle East. "Morsi's numbers may be deceiving, and it is probable that he'll exceed his low showing in the poll. We know that political machinery is essential in getting out the vote. But the Brotherhood has already lost some of its early advantages."

Telhami adds that predictive political polling in Egypt is especially challenging now because electoral behavior is still in the formative stage. "The experiment is new, coalitions are still forming, and little information is available about turnout and likely voters," he says. "Consider these numbers as indicative of trends and direction."
 
Strange that none of the polls had Morsi as a frontrunner. Or even in second. Most had his support in single digits.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_presidential_election,_2012#Opinion_polls

Were these polls not done scientifically?

Opinion polls are rather a messy area. You take the raw figures then adjust them to allow for factors like people refusing to answer, demographic bias, people lying, probability of people changing their mind at the last minute. To do this well you need a worthwhile past dataset. Egypt doesn't have one.

Heh even in the UK where you have a massive dataset it breaks down outside the norm. For example the opinion polls during the UK's last general election had issues because none of the polling organisations knew what it meant if a large number of people say they are going to vote lib dem (it turns out they are not going to vote lib dem as it happens).
 
Would you expect a culture that exhibited these traits to be successful, dynamic, vibrant and innovative?

That's why Egypt is what it is.

So, I clicked on this site, and the very first essay I read says,

In numerous lectures I gave in Europe and America, I tried to familiarize people with what I call Egyptian Islam which, until the nineteen forties, stood as a unique example of tolerance and flexibility. Noted for its acceptance of the Other, it was not pathologically obsessed with the fine print of scripture. While recognizing the divine character of the prophetically revealed laws, it also recognized that some of their provisions were formulated in the context of a different time, place and circumstances. Thus divinity was reserved for religion and did not extend to how mortals understood or chose to interpret its strictures. It was tacitly understood that there is a subjective dimension to the interpretation of any text, and that interpretation is necessarily coloured by the interpreter’s cultural formation, knowledge and intellectual abilities.

The voices now raised in the West in general and in the United States in particular to warn against the menace of “militant Islam” would do well to ask themselves a number of important questions:

- Who shut their eyes for many years to a general climate which allowed the militant model of Islam to spread unchecked and forced the civilized, humanistic Turkish-Egyptian model to retreat in disarray as economic conditions and educational institutions declined, leaving the way open to an invasion by the militant model? Who turned a blind eye to these developments for close on thirty years and are today bemoaning the way things have turned out?

- Who in the nineteen fifties and perhaps even earlier invented the dangerous game of using political Islam to create a strategic balance with socialism? (In the seventies, Egypt played the same game with disastrous consequences.)

- Has the West only now realized that there is no room for freedom, democracy, human rights, women’s rights or civil rights in the militant model of Islam? Did it really believe this model to be a shining example of these noble humanistic values in the nineteen sixties, seventies and eighties?

- Why is the dossier of the honeymoon between the United States and the Afghan mujahedeen not being opened? Or, for that matter, the chapter of the close links which political Islam in pre-revolutionary Iran enjoyed with the West, particularly France? And, before that, the relations between political Islam in Egypt and Britain, the occupying power at the time, particularly during the two terms of the Mohamed Mahmoud government (1928 and 1938)?

The critical mind, which is the pride of civilized humanity, imposes an obligation on all of us to answer those questions. It also requires all parties to assume a share of the responsibility for what happened and is continuing to happen. It requires us, further, to look closely into the two models of Islam referred to in this article and ask ourselves which is more capable of joining the march of civilization and living in harmony with the requirements of the age, without abandoning the positive features of our cultural specificity. Is it the model engendered by the school of traditionalists, victims of their geographical isolation behind high sand dunes, or the moderate, tolerant, liberal Turkish-Egyptian model?

Huh.
 
And the very next essay I read there says,

Three decades after the creation of Saudi Arabia and the discovery of oil, many things had changed in the world:

One, Saudi Arabia had built up a huge fortune that enabled it to further the cause of Wahhabism not only within its own borders but throughout the Arab and Muslim world. Its efforts proved successful, as many once moderate Muslims were gradually won over to the harsh version of Islam preached by the Wahhabis.

Two, beginning in the ‘sixties, Egypt suffered a reversal of fortune at all levels, including a decline in its general cultural climate, allowing Wahhabi influence to infiltrate the venerable institution of Al-Azhar. The defeat of June 1967 opened the door wide to groups which espoused the Saudi understanding of Islam and who translated their radical views into political action, often at the point of a gun.

Three, in the context of the Cold War, the West in general and the United States in particular adopted a number of misguided policies towards the region, including turning a blind eye to the spread of Wahhabi influence in the Arab and Islamic world, and even occasionally supporting radical groups inspired by the Wahhabi doctrine to achieve their own political ends, such as ending the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

The assassination of President Anwar Sadat by an extremist group was a wake-up call which alerted the world to the growth and spread of the Saudi-backed Wahhabi model of Islam and the retreat of the Egyptian/Turkish/Syrian model. A succession of similar events attested to the dangerous spread of this model in most societies with a Muslim majority, in Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, the Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Indonesia. On the morning of September 11, 2001, a group of fanatics belonging to the Wahhabi brand of Islam launched attacks on New York and Washington that illustrated how the members of this sect view the Other in general and Western civilization in particular.

For the average European or American unfamiliar with some of the facts presented in this article, it is easy to believe that Islam, violence and terrorism go hand in hand. But those who have a more thorough grasp of the issue know that this perception of Islam has taken hold only because a puritanical, fundamentalist model of Islam, which was marginal and ineffectual before oil wealth put it on the map, has managed, thanks to petrodollars, to make the world believe that its interpretation of Islam is Islam. The doctrinaire version of Islam propounded by the Wahabbis had no followers among the Muslims of the world before the expansion of Saudi influence following the oil boom. Millions of Muslims in Egypt, Turkey, the Levant, Iraq, Indonesia and throughout the world remained immune to the appeal of the fanatical, violent and bloody message of what was a small and obscure sect bred in the intellectually barren landscape of the eastern Arabian Peninsula. All that changed with the massive influx of petrodollars into the coffers of Saudi Arabia, which used its new-found wealth to propagate the message of its home-grown Wahhabi sect with missionary zeal. Hence the emergence of militant Islam as a force to be reckoned with on the world stage, a force that now represents a dangerous threat to world peace, to humanity and to Islam and Muslims. Half a century ago, the Muslims of Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey were models of tolerance who believed in a gentle and enlightened Islam that could, and did, coexist peacefully with other religions and cultures. Following the decline in living standards they have suffered since at the hands of despotic and corrupt rulers, they have become easy prey for the Wahhabi interpretation of Islam.

The perception of Islam today by many non-Muslims is that it is a fanatical and violent religion. That is a superficial view which ignores the fact that there are two models of Islam, one that is uncompromising and extremist in its views and another that is tolerant, moderate and humanistic. It is also a naïve view that can lead to dangerous decisions like the ones which informed the West’s policies when it turned a blind eye to the spread of Wahhabism and established close links with radical Islamic movements like the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Finally, there is no need to point out to the neutral reader that the existence of Qur’anic texts which can be used to evidence the violence of Islam is unimportant, because there are enlightened interpretations of the same texts which link them to specific circumstances and events. At the end of the day, any text, even if it is divine, requires a human agency to interpret it, and the real test is how the mind elects to interpret it. Moreover, there are also many Qur’anic texts which proscribe the use of violence and aggression against those belonging to other faiths and creeds, and calls on Muslims to treat them fairly and humanely. But texts should not be the focus of debate here, not least because this would allow extremists on the other side to justify their use of violence by invoking Old Testament texts exhorting believers to violence, notably in the Book of Joshua, son of Nun.


Are you sure you linked to the right site, Virus?
 

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