Poll Vault

[Pookster]

Ah, how times have changed. Let's look back at the very first post on this thread, way back on 2nd July ...

This drawn-out electoral process is so useful, isn't it?

While I think it is too drawn out, I think it's helpful to watch how the candidates handle the long process. For awhile in September, McCain had things beginning to go his way ... until the bottom dropped out of the financial markets. McCain's poll numbers never recovered.

 

[dudalb]

I guess because it offends me that so many people around the world yearn for the right to choose their government while Americans spit on that right.

It is human nature not to appreciate what you have until it is gone.

 

[dudalb]

My voting place is within a block of a Starbucks,and you have to go right by it to get to the polling place by the most direct route from a main drag. They will be giving away LOTS of free coffee tommorow.
BTW brilliant stunt by Starbucks. It makes them look good, and whatever they give away in free coffee they will more then make up with all the free publcity they are getting.

 

[Dr Adequate]

Alaska A Statistical Tie Ha Ha Ha.

But I think McCain/Palin might squeak through there.

 

[BenBurch]

Alaska A Statistical Tie Ha Ha Ha.

But I think McCain/Palin might squeak through there.

If Obama wins AK or AZ I am getting SO drunk tomorrow that my NEIGHBORS will be hung over by contagion.

 

[dudalb]

Alaska A Statistical Tie Ha Ha Ha.

But I think McCain/Palin might squeak through there.

You have to wonder if the Stevens scandle is having an impact in Seward's Folly.
That should be so safely Red that it's not worth discussing.

 

[gdnp]

I guess because it offends me that so many people around the world yearn for the right to choose their government while Americans spit on that right.

I think voting without becoming informed is a worse affront to democracy than not voting. I do find it disappointing that so many cannot be bothered. But in the same way that freedom of religion gives you the freedom from religion, the right to vote should give you the right not to vote.

 

[gdnp]

RCP has switched Minnesota from solid Obama to leaning obama, but has his overall lead up to 7.5%. That's up from 6.4% yesterday.

11/03 Minnesota Solid Obama »»» Leaning Obama Obama 278 - McCain 132 Obama +7.5

Where's that October surprise, Rush? Virginia closes in 23 hours. It may all be over then.

 

[MattusMaximus]

If Obama wins AK or AZ I am getting SO drunk tomorrow that my NEIGHBORS will be hung over by contagion.

Screw that! After I finish my poll-watching duties tomorrow evening and close out my precinct, I'm going to the local Election Night party and getting drunk... I'm not even going to wait until the results start to come in

 

[MattusMaximus]

Where's that October surprise, Rush? Virginia closes in 23 hours. It may all be over then.

McCain and the GOP tried to pull too many "surprises" and none of them worked. By late October, I think they'd already shot their wad.

As for Virginia, I agree - if Obama takes VA, it's over. Same goes for if he takes any of the following states: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana. No way McCain can win without all of those states.

 

[BenBurch]

Screw that! After I finish my poll-watching duties tomorrow evening and close out my precinct, I'm going to the local Election Night party and getting drunk... I'm not even going to wait until the results start to come in

I wish I could poll-watch this year. I have an all-night election special to keep on the air.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Here's my final post regarding prediction markets!

The latest from the Vote-Share at the Iowa Electronic Market...

Obama 53.6
McCain 46.5

So IEM is predicting a vote split of 7% in Obama's favor tomorrow after all the votes have been counted. This seems to agree with most polling out there, at least within the margin of error, which is nothing unusual for the IEM - the IEM vote-share numbers typically converge with the polls in the last few days leading up to the election. What is worth noting is how stable the IEM vote-share market has been on this question for the last two months - see what I mean here.

Well, that's it then - enough prognosticating. By this time tomorrow night we should have our answer, and all this hand waving we've been doing here will be viewed with a much more well-informed hindsight. And once this craziness is all over, we can start to spend time on other activities.

See you all around the Forums

 

[Undesired Walrus]

In NC, more African Americans have voted than in the entire 2004 election.

 

[Pookster]

The latest from Zogby: Obama by 11 (54%-43%)

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN3134134020081104

Obama expanded his national lead to 11 points over McCain among likely U.S. voters in a separate Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll, up from 7 points on Sunday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

Obama appeared to be firmly in command of the presidential battle as Americans head to the polls on Tuesday, with McCain struggling to beat back a challenge from Obama in about a dozen states won by President George W. Bush in 2004.

The new state surveys showed Obama with a slim 1-point lead in Florida and 2-point edge in Ohio, within the margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. Obama had bigger leads in Virginia and Nevada.

Those four states, all won by Bush in the last election, have a combined 65 electoral votes. Along with states won by Democrat John Kerry in 2004 where Obama safely leads, they would give Obama 317 electoral votes -- more than the 270 needed to win the White House.

Obama leads by 10 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which McCain has targeted as his best chance to steal a state won by Kerry in 2004.

"Obama's national lead grew overnight as the undecideds decided he defines the mantle of change," said pollster John Zogby. "It looks like it could be a big victory for Obama, and McCain has to win essentially all of the states still in play."

 

[Pookster]

The latest Bush State polls out since yesterday ...

Colorado	FOX News/Rasmussen	Obama 51, McCain 47	Obama +4
Colorado	Denver Post/Mason-Dixon	Obama 49, McCain 44	Obama +5

Florida		SurveyUSA		Obama 50, McCain 47	Obama +3
Florida		Reuters/Zogby		Obama 49, McCain 48	Obama +1
Florida		FOX News/Rasmussen	Obama 49, McCain 50	McCain +1
Florida		Strategic Vision (R)	Obama 49, McCain 47	Obama +2
Florida		PPP (D)			Obama 50, McCain 48	Obama +2
Florida		Quinnipiac		Obama 47, McCain 45	Obama +2

Indiana		Reuters/Zogby		McCain 50, Obama 45	McCain +5
Indiana		PPP (D)			McCain 48, Obama 49	Obama +1

Missouri	Reuters/Zogby		McCain 49, Obama 49	Tie
Missouri	FOX News/Rasmussen	McCain 49, Obama 49	Tie
Missouri	PPP (D)			McCain 49, Obama 49	Tie
Missouri	SurveyUSA		McCain 48, Obama 48	Tie

Montana		PPP (D)			McCain 47, Obama 48	Obama +1

Nevada		Reuters/Zogby		Obama 53, McCain 42	Obama +11
Nevada		PPP (D)			Obama 51, McCain 47	Obama +4

North Carolina	Reuters/Zogby		McCain 50, Obama 49	McCain +1
North Carolina	ARG			McCain 48, Obama 49	Obama +1
North Carolina	FOX News/Rasmussen	McCain 50, Obama 49	McCain +1
North Carolina	PPP (D)			McCain 49, Obama 50	Obama +1
North Carolina	SurveyUSA		McCain 49, Obama 48	McCain +1

Ohio		Reuters/Zogby		Obama 49, McCain 47	Obama +2
Ohio		FOX News/Rasmussen	Obama 49, McCain 49	Tie
Ohio		Strategic Vision (R)	Obama 46, McCain 48	McCain +2
Ohio		PPP (D)			Obama 50, McCain 48	Obama +2
Ohio		SurveyUSA		Obama 48, McCain 46	Obama +2
Ohio		Univ of Cinci/Ohio Poll	Obama 52, McCain 46	Obama +6
Ohio		Quinnipiac		Obama 50, McCain 43	Obama +7

Virginia	Reuters/Zogby		Obama 52, McCain 45	Obama +7
Virginia	ARG			Obama 51, McCain 47	Obama +4
Virginia	FOX News/Rasmussen	Obama 51, McCain 47	Obama +4

 

[Pookster]

Alaska A Statistical Tie Ha Ha Ha.

But I think McCain/Palin might squeak through there.

The ultimate of adding insult to injury if Palin loses Alaska. I'd almost feel sorry for her.

 

[gdnp]

It's amazing how these polls have converged. All four Missouri polls have a tie, all 5 NC have Obama by 1. Largest uncertainty is Ohio with a spread of 9 points: McCain by 2 vs Obama by 7.

 

[Pookster]

To summarize where I see this at right now:

Obama starts with 252 electoral votes (Kerry States). All he needs is 269 for a win (tied electoral college gives the win to Obama). He needs 17 Bush State votes.

Bush States in the bag for Obama:

Iowa (7)
New Mexico (5)

Obama only needs 5 more electoral votes. He only needs to win one of the following for the election to be over:

Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (11)
Nevada (5)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (20)
Virginia (13)

Obama is leading significantly in Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. He has a slight leads in Florida and Ohio. North Carolina and Missouri are basically tied.

The early key calls tonight are Virginia and North Carolina. If one of them goes to Obama early, it's over. If they both go to McCain, it'll be a much longer night as I don't see Florida or Ohio getting called before 11-12pm ET. Missouri and Indiana will likely go to McCain. Either Colorado or Nevada may be the State that gets called between 10-11pm ET for Obama making him the President-Elect.

 

[Pookster]

It's amazing how these polls have converged. All four Missouri polls have a tie, all 5 NC have Obama by 1. Largest uncertainty is Ohio with a spread of 9 points: McCain by 2 vs Obama by 7.

I agree. I think this is a result of much fewer undecideds in all the polls. The outliers are going to be very few now, IMO.

 

[gdnp]

They will either be all right or all wrong. I'm betting the latter: Missouri and NC will finish +/-2 from the predictions.

In fact, I hope so. I would hate to think that polling has become so accurate that you don't really need to count the votes.