Poll Vault

[David Wong]

Some stuff on early vote totals from PPP:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

Florida:

"Over half of those who plan to vote in Florida this fall already have, and among those voters Barack Obama has built up a a 56-43 lead. That leaves John McCain playing catch up if he hopes to take the state on election day- he has a 54-42 lead among those folks planning to vote Tuesday, but the big question is whether they will really turn out."

North Carolina:

"PPP projects that (Obama) racked up a lead of a little over 250,000 voters during early voting. He led 55-45 among those who said they had already voted in our poll, and a little over 2.5 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballots.

But among those planning to vote on election day John McCain leads 56-42. It is always better to have actual votes than hypothetical votes so there's no doubt Obama has the edge right now- the question is just whether enough of those McCain supporters really turn out to make up the gap."

Ohio:

"(Obama) has banked a huge lead with early voters, who made up about 30% of the sample. He's up 65-34 with those folks. McCain's tightening the race to two points is predicated on his winning election day voters 54-44."

 

[Undesired Walrus]

I'm just worried that many people are going to sit on their hands tomorrow, content that these poll numbers show that someone else will tick the box for them.

 

[Pookster]

I'm just worried that many people are going to sit on their hands tomorrow, content that these poll numbers show that someone else will tick the box for them.

I doubt that many will. There are typically numerous local and State elections that will draw people to the polls as well.

As Rasmussen and other polls have noted, this is a historic election no matter who wins. The excitement level on the Obama side bodes well for a huge turnout at least for the Democrats, much like what occurred during the primaries. The early voting trends also bode well for a big overall turnout.

 

[BenBurch]

I'm just worried that many people are going to sit on their hands tomorrow, content that these poll numbers show that someone else will tick the box for them.

Much more likely that Repubs will stay home in states where early voting is heavily against them. People find it really hard to get up and out for a lost cause.

 

[Pookster]

A couple of national tracking polls out this morning ...

National	Diageo/Hotline		Obama 50, McCain 45	Obama +5
National	GWU/Battleground	Obama 50, McCain 44	Obama +6

 

[dudalb]

Much more likely that Repubs will stay home in states where early voting is heavily against them. People find it really hard to get up and out for a lost cause.

Which is sad.
Frankly, I think that Early Votes results should not be released until the polls have closed on election day.
Unless these are not official results, but polls, in which case they should be taken with a grain of salt.
Frankly, I would not mind it if networks would not make any projections or declare any winners until polls have closed across the country. I know there is a first admendment issue here, but would like it if, for once, the networks would show a Little responsiblity,but I am not holding my breath.

 

[Jimbo07]

Unless these are not official results, but polls, in which case they should be taken with a grain of salt.

I assumed they were exit polls.

 

[BenBurch]

Which is sad.
Frankly, I think that Early Votes results should not be released until the polls have closed on election day.
Unless these are not official results, but polls, in which case they should be taken with a grain of salt.
Frankly, I would not mind it if networks would not make any projections or declare any winners until polls have closed across the country. I know there is a first admendment issue here, but would like it if, for once, the networks would show a Little responsiblity,but I am not holding my breath.

I agree.

Actually, I would adopt the Australian system if it were up to me; Voting is mandatory, and a fine of $50 is assessed if you do not vote.

 

[Pookster]

Which is sad.
Frankly, I think that Early Votes results should not be released until the polls have closed on election day.
Unless these are not official results, but polls, in which case they should be taken with a grain of salt.
Frankly, I would not mind it if networks would not make any projections or declare any winners until polls have closed across the country. I know there is a first admendment issue here, but would like it if, for once, the networks would show a Little responsiblity,but I am not holding my breath.

From what I've read, the turnout is being gauged by the polling organizations. I'm not aware of any State election offices releasing any results.

 

[Pookster]

I assumed they were exit polls.

I'm certain all of them are from the regular polling they're doing by phone, with the added question of whether the person has already voted or not.

 

[aerosolben]

I'm certain all of them are from the regular polling they're doing by phone, with the added question of whether the person has already voted or not.

Yup, that's it.

On the subject of exit polling, Nate Silver (of fivethirtyeight.com) has promised "A primer on why you should absolutely, positively ignore exit polls" sometime today or tomorrow. Should be interesting, I think.

 

[Pookster]

A few new national polls since this morning ...

National	Marist			Obama 53, McCain 44	Obama +9
National	FOX News		Obama 50, McCain 43	Obama +7
National	NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	Obama 51, McCain 43	Obama +8

 

[gdnp]

I agree.

Actually, I would adopt the Australian system if it were up to me; Voting is mandatory, and a fine of $50 is assessed if you do not vote.

Why try to force someone who doesn't care to vote? The last thing we need is more low information voters.

 

[David Wong]

IBD/TIPP is out there as the lone voice in the wilderness, still saying it's a statistical tie (Obama up by 2, within the MOE). Otherwise the RCP average is 7.0.

For the last time, they were the most accurate poll in 2004...

 

[BenBurch]

Why try to force someone who doesn't care to vote? The last thing we need is more low information voters.

I guess because it offends me that so many people around the world yearn for the right to choose their government while Americans spit on that right.

 

[BenBurch]

IBD/TIPP is out there as the lone voice in the wilderness, still saying it's a statistical tie (Obama up by 2, within the MOE). Otherwise the RCP average is 7.0.

For the last time, they were the most accurate poll in 2004...

Nate at 538 dealt with that recently.

Basically its not a well-conducted poll, and 2004 was not a difficult election to get right.

EDIT: Linkage; http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/anatomy-of-polling-disaster.html

 

[Dr Adequate]

A couple of national tracking polls out this morning ...

National	Diageo/Hotline		Obama 50, McCain 45	Obama +5
National	GWU/Battleground	Obama 50, McCain 44	Obama +6

Ah, how times have changed. Let's look back at the very first post on this thread, way back on 2nd July ...

Here's a new CNN/Opinion Research Poll that shows Barack Obama with a five point edge over John McCain.

Obama: 50%
McCain: 45%

This drawn-out electoral process is so useful, isn't it?

 

[BenBurch]

This drawn-out electoral process is so useful, isn't it?

Actually, I think it is. We have the opportunity to hear all possible objections to our choice, and so make a more informed decision. If you make a choice quickly it is more likely to be a beauty contest.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

IBD/TIPP is out there as the lone voice in the wilderness, still saying it's a statistical tie (Obama up by 2, within the MOE). Otherwise the RCP average is 7.0.

For the last time, they were the most accurate poll in 2004...

Something to ease your mind:

Obama leads John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent, by Pew’s measure, which projects that McCain will win undecided voters by a slight margin.

Pew’s final pre-election poll in 2004, including its projection of the undecided vote, correctly predicted that George W. Bush would defeat John Kerry 51 to 48 percent.

 

[Pookster]

IBD/TIPP is out there as the lone voice in the wilderness, still saying it's a statistical tie (Obama up by 2, within the MOE). Otherwise the RCP average is 7.0.

For the last time, they were the most accurate poll in 2004...

I dealt with that here ...

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=4157750&postcount=1016

Not quite. They were one of the closest on the margin of victory, but not close at all on the final percentages.


http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/69/5/642/T1

					Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Bush 
									Lead

Election Result 			50.7 	48.3 	0.3 	0.7 	2.4 
			
Harris (Online) 	10/29–11/1 	47 	50 	1 	2 	–3.0 	
Battleground: Lake 	10/31–11/1 	48.6 	50.7 			–2.1 	
Fox News 		10/30–31 	46 	48 	1 	5 	–2.0 	
Marist College 		11/1 		49 	50 	0 	1 	–1.0 	
Democracy Corps 	10/29–31 	47 	48 	1 	3 	-1.0
Gallup 			10/31–11/1 	49 	49 	1 	1 	0.0 	
American Research Group	10/28–30 	48 	48 	1 	3 	0.0 	
Zogby 			11/2 		49.4 	49.1 	1 	0.5 	0.3 	
Harris (Telephone) 	10/29–11/1 	49 	48 	2 	1 	1.0 	
NBC News/WSJ	 	10/29–31 	48 	47 	1 	4 	1.0 	
ABC News 		10/28–31 	49 	48 	1 	3 	1.0 	
Washington Post 	10/28–31 	49 	48 	1 	3 	1.0 	
CBS News/N.Y. Times 	10/29–11/1 	49 	47 	1 	3 	2.0 	
CNN/USA Today/ Gallup 	10/29–31 	49 	47 		4 	2.0 	
Pew Research Center 	10/27–30 	51 	48 	1 		3.0 	
TIPP 			10/30–11/1 	48.6 	45.3 	0.9 	5.2 	3.3 	
Battleground: Tarrance 	10/31–11/1 	51.2 	47.8 	0.5 	0.5 	3.4 	
GW Battleground 	10/31–11/1 	50 	46 	1 	4 	4.0 	
Newsweek 		10/27–29 	50 	44 	1 	5 	6.0

They were off significantly on the final percentages. Pew was the most accurate with the final results.