Poll Vault

[Undesired Walrus]

Obama up by 10 today on gallup: 52 to 42.

 

[Pookster]

National tracking polls out this morning ...

October 20 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 4 (50%-46%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 19
October 20 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 5 (47%-42%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 19
October 20 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 6 (50%-44%) -- Obama lead +3 from Oct 19
October 20 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 4 (49%-45%) -- Unchanged from Oct 17

Latest from Rasmussen ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Obama has been at the 50% level of support for seven of the past eight days while McCain has been at 45% or 46%. Obama’s lead has been in the four to six point range on each of those eight days.

This suggests that the race may be tightening a bit. Prior to the past week, Obama had enjoyed a five to eight point advantage for several weeks.

McCain has regained his advantage among male voters, leading by five. However, Obama leads by eleven among women.

Still, from a broader perspective, the race remains very stable.

 

[David Wong]

Yep, and the RCP average is all the way down to 4.8 (and yes, the RCP average is a VERY useful indicator, that's why so many outlets refer to it).

The next thing to watch for is a shift in the state-to-state polling.

We're witnessing the Joe the Plumber bounce, now the Republicans are holding their breath to see if it's enough to make up this ground. But right now, there's not a whole lot of ground to make up. McCain needs to bump 3 points, and to see Obama drop by 3.

That's it. But that feels a lot harder when you look at the last 20 months of polling and realize McCain's been in this exact same spot the whole time, outside of the one-week convention bounce. Outside of his bounce, he has NEVER lead, Obama's small lead seemingly frozen in cement.

You've still got 13% telling pollsters they're not sure about their choice. Does that pool include enough Obama voters to turn the tide? Statistically you'd have to say yes.

 

[Malerin]

Yep, and the RCP average is all the way down to 4.8 (and yes, the RCP average is a VERY useful indicator, that's why so many outlets refer to it).

The next thing to watch for is a shift in the state-to-state polling.

We're witnessing the Joe the Plumber bounce, now the Republicans are holding their breath to see if it's enough to make up this ground. But right now, there's not a whole lot of ground to make up. McCain needs to bump 3 points, and to see Obama drop by 3.

That's it. But that feels a lot harder when you look at the last 20 months of polling and realize McCain's been in this exact same spot the whole time, outside of the one-week convention bounce. Outside of his bounce, he has NEVER lead, Obama's small lead seemingly frozen in cement.

You've still got 13% telling pollsters they're not sure about their choice. Does that pool include enough Obama voters to turn the tide? Statistically you'd have to say yes.

RCP average is back over 5. I predict a slight bump from Powell's endorsement. Do we know how the pollster's are taking early voting into account?

 

[dudalb]

CNN is saying the race is tightening up, but not by a lot from the numbers they give.
I

 

[Malerin]

New state polls:

Ohio, Obama +9
N. Carolina, Obama +7

Heavy Dem turnout in N. Carolina early voting:

"Of 270,000 in-person voters since "One Stop" opened last Thursday, over 60% were registered Democrats, compared to only 20% Republicans. (The remainder: mostly unaffiliated voters, who make up about 20% of the state's electorate.)"

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/20/1571958.aspx#comments

Mccain better hope that Ohio poll is an outlier. Last polling had it a dead heat.

 

[Peephole]

Yep, and the RCP average is all the way down to 4.8 (and yes, the RCP average is a VERY useful indicator, that's why so many outlets refer to it).

Not really, RCP excludes certain polls (Research 2000) for example. And the drop is more associated with the appearance of Gallup's likely voter models that have Obama a little lower and some new polls (IBD) who also have Obama lower. The drop has been more like 1% and pretty much happened before the debate, not after.

Wurzelbacher the "plumber" has nothing to do with it.

 

[dudalb]

My only interest is in the state by state polls. They are the ones that really matter in an electorial system.

 

[Pookster]

Speaking of the State polls, here are all the Bush States in play ...

Colorado (9)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 14 - Suffolk: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
October 14 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 12 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Florida (27)
October 17 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
October 17 - Research 2000: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 15 - Datamar: Obama by 5 (47%-42%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 10 - Research 2000: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

Indiana (11)
October 9 - Rasmussen: McCain by 7 (50%-43%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
October 7 - Research 2000: Tied (46%-46%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)

Iowa (7)
October 11 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (54%-41%)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Missouri (11)
October 20 - Suffolk: McCain by 1 (45%-44%)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (52%-46%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 13 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

Nevada (5)
October 17 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 12 - LVRJ/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 7 - Reno Gazette-Journal: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)

New Mexico (5)
October 15 - Rasmussen: Obama by 13 (55%-42%)
October 15 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 6 - Albuquerque Journal: Obama by 5 (45%-40%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

North Carolina (15)
October 20 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
October 18 - Research 2000: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (46%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (48%-48%)
October 11 - WSOC-TV: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 5 (48%-43%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (49%-46%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Tied (49%-49%)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)

North Dakota (3)
October 17 - Research 2000: Tied (45%-45%)
October 16 - North Dakota UTU (D): Obama by 3 (44%-41%)
October 13 - Forum Poll/MSUM: Obama by 2 (45%-43%)

Ohio (20)
October 20 - Suffolk: Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 19 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
October 16 - Rasmussen: Tied (49%-49%)
October 14 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 11 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 10 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)

Virginia (13)
October 20 - Rasmussen: Obama by 10 (54%-44%)
October 20 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 9 - PPP (D): Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)

West Virginia (5)
October 19 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: McCain by 6 (47%-41%)
October 19 - PPP (D): McCain by 8 (50%-42%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)

 

[Pookster]

The national tracking polls for today ...

October 20 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 5 (50%-45%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 19
October 20 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 9 (52%-43%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 19
October 20 - IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama by 5.3 (46.7%-41.4%) -- Obama lead +0.2 from Oct 19
October 20 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 4 (50%-46%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 19
October 20 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 5 (47%-42%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 19
October 20 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 6 (50%-44%) -- Obama lead +3 from Oct 19
October 20 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 4 (49%-45%) -- Unchanged from Oct 17


Other national polls ...

October 20 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 9 (53%-44%)
October 20 - CNN/Opinion Research: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - Pew Research: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
October 14 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 9 (48%-39%)
October 14 - CBS News/NY Times: Obama by 12 (51%-39%-Nader 3%-Barr 1%)
October 14 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 8 (47%-39-Nader 3%-Barr 1%%)
October 13 - USA Today/Gallup: Obama by 5.5 (51%-45.5%)
October 13 - Democracy Corps (D): Obama by 9 (51%-42%)
October 13 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 10 - Newsweek: Obama by 11 (52%-41%)
October 10 - FOX News: Obama by 7 (46%-39%)

 

[Pookster]

Not really, RCP excludes certain polls (Research 2000) for example. And the drop is more associated with the appearance of Gallup's likely voter models that have Obama a little lower and some new polls (IBD) who also have Obama lower. The drop has been more like 1% and pretty much happened before the debate, not after.

Wurzelbacher the "plumber" has nothing to do with it.

Agreed. Also, you have registered voter and likely voter polls mixed together. You have polling organizations with a track record of wild swings mixed with those that don't. You have older polls mixed with newer ones (even if just a few days older). It's something simple that people can use in a discussion/article, but it is otherwise of little value.

 

[BenBurch]

If the Republicans wait til the last minute to vote, as it appears they will, then WEATHER could factor into the race.

My grandfather always said that good weather on election day favored Republicans and bad weather favored Democrats because most Democrats lived in cities and so they could get out to vote even in bad weather.

Now that appears to have not been as much of a factor since I've been of voting age, but if we have a disproportionate number of the Republican votes waiting for November 4th, an unseasonal blizzard in one or two early voting states could have a real effect.

 

[dudalb]

Now some McCain insiders are advocating pulling resources out of Colorado...and Colorado is a must win state for McCain.
If McCain should win, it would be a bigger political upset then 1948.

 

[aerosolben]

Now some McCain insiders are advocating pulling resources out of Colorado...and Colorado is a must win state for McCain.
If McCain should win, it would be a bigger political upset then 1948.

There is some suggestion McCain may have an easier time taking Pennsylvania than holding Colorado.

 

[Peephole]

My only interest is in the state by state polls. They are the ones that really matter in an electorial system.

Yes and no. If you gain or lose ground in the national polls that is always reflected in the state polls. So, they are still pretty useful to monitor. But you have to take the position of the candidates in the swing states into account. Obama is positioned pretty strong, so even with McCain ahead 1-2%, Obama would still have a slight edge.

There is some suggestion McCain may have an easier time taking Pennsylvania than holding Colorado.

That's ridiculous, McCain hasn't lead in a single Pennsylvania poll since April. Polls in October had Obama ahead 8 to 15 points. Even if the situation is hopeless, McCain's strategy is still insane.

It also begs the question, if they truly believe they can't win in Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico (which is probably correct), then what the hell are they still doing there?

 

[not_so_new]

Yes and no. If you gain or lose ground in the national polls that is always reflected in the state polls. So, they are still pretty useful to monitor. But you have to take the position of the candidates in the swing states into account. Obama is positioned pretty strong, so even with McCain ahead 1-2%, Obama would still have a slight edge.

That's ridiculous, McCain hasn't lead in a single Pennsylvania poll since April. Polls in October had Obama ahead 8 to 15 points. Even if the situation is hopeless, McCain's strategy is still insane.

It also begs the question, if they truly believe they can't win in Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico (which is probably correct), then what the hell are they still doing there?

I agree with everything here and to answer that last question, what the hell are they still doing in Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico.... what else are they going to do? Fall back to Texas?

I am only half joking. There is a point where they just can't bail on every state that looks to be leaning to Obama or there will be no toss up states left to win.

I live here in PA and I agree that PA, Ohio and Florida are must wins for McCain, I can see him stepping up his campaign here. I have not done the numbers but I think McCain will need two of these right? And they still need some outliers like Colorado, Iowa and or New Mexico.

Can McCain win without one of the three, PA, Ohio and Florida knowing how the rest of the nation is shaping up?

 

[aerosolben]

That's ridiculous, McCain hasn't lead in a single Pennsylvania poll since April. Polls in October had Obama ahead 8 to 15 points. Even if the situation is hopeless, McCain's strategy is still insane.

Not necessarily. Campaigns conduct their own internal polls, which are more specific than public polls. Note that Pennsylvania has not been heavily polled lately - the 8-point lead you refer to is the most recent poll conducted (Susquehanna), and the only one conducted in over a week - the race appears to be tightening, even if it remains strong for Obama. PA could have more undecideds or certain demographics the McCain campaign thinks are responsive to their tactics.

 

[Peephole]

Not necessarily. Campaigns conduct their own internal polls, which are more specific than public polls. Note that Pennsylvania has not been heavily polled lately - the 8-point lead you refer to is the most recent poll conducted (Susquehanna), and the only one conducted in over a week - the race appears to be tightening, even if it remains strong for Obama. PA could have more undecideds or certain demographics the McCain campaign thinks are responsive to their tactics.

This is not true, Pennsylvania is polled daily by Morning Call. There is no tightening. Obama's lead increased in that Susquehanna poll you mention.

 

[BenBurch]

...
It also begs the question, if they truly believe they can't win in Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico (which is probably correct), then what the hell are they still doing there?

My take on it; If you think you cannot win at all, you might focus your resources on the states where downticket races ARE winnable and where capitulation at the top of the ticket would ensure those are lost.

 

[aerosolben]

This is not true, Pennsylvania is polled daily by Morning Call. There is no tightening.

True, I forgot Morning call. And Morning Call DOES show tightening over the weekend - mild and not outside the margin of error, though.

Obama's lead increased in that Susquehanna poll you mention.

Yeah...from August - not exactly a short-term trend. It is tighter than other polls have been showing.

Either way, those aren't terribly relevant - McCain's internal polling is what's guiding his decision making process, and we don't have access to it.