• Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more

Poll Vault

Status
Not open for further replies.
About 1/3 of voting is expected to be early voting. If Obama is winning that by 20+ points, Mccain will need a lot more than 2 points to catch up.
 
Another article about the "cellphone effect" and how it benefits Obama. This is telling because it takes into account many polls, not just one...

Polls probably undercounting Obama's support

... To review, we know that more Americans than ever are living in households without traditional landline telephone service. According to the estimates compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics, by the last six months of 2007, 14.5 percent of all adults were living in households that could only be reached by a cell phone, a number that had more than tripled (from 4.4 percent) since 2004.

Younger Americans especially are out of reach. Mining the same NCHS study, the Pew Research Center reports that nearly a third (30.6 percent) of 18-to-24-year-olds can be reached only by cell phone. ...
Click to expand...

... • The Pew Research Center looked at the three major political surveys they have conducted since June, comparing the results with cell-phone interviews included against the landline-only figures. They saw "a virtually identical pattern" on all three surveys: "In each case, including cell-phone interviews resulted in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain, a consistent difference of 2 to 3 points in the margin."

The biggest reason is a large difference they observed among registered voters under 30: Those in cell-phone-only households preferred Obama by a 35-percentage-point margin (62 percent to 27 percent), while Obama led by a much closer margin (52 percent to 39 percent) among those in households with wired phones.

• This past spring, Gallup managing editor Jeff Jones looked at six Gallup/USA Today surveys conducted during the first four months of 2008 and saw a similar pattern. Adding cell-phone interviews appeared to add roughly 2 points to Obama's total and take roughly 2 points from McCain.

I checked in with Jones this week to see if the pattern has held in the ongoing Gallup Daily tracking conducted over the course of the year. They are "still seeing the same pattern (crudely)," he wrote back, a "point or two more for McCain and a point or two less for Obama excluding cell-phone interviews." Jones hedged a bit, however, saying that they did not re-weight their wired-phone data (as Pew did) for this comparison.

• A few weeks ago, blogger Nate Silver compared the house effects of national polls that have been interviewing by cell phone with those that have not. He found that including cell phone interviews appeared to improve Obama's standing by 2 to 3 percentage points on the margin.

While each source is appropriately cautious, the pattern is consistent: Interviewing by landline phone only may cost the Obama-Biden ticket roughly 2-3 points on the margin. ...
Click to expand...


Very good news for Obama/Biden, and very bad news for McCain/Palin - especially at this stage of the game.
 
Malerin said:
About 1/3 of voting is expected to be early voting. If Obama is winning that by 20+ points, Mccain will need a lot more than 2 points to catch up.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's hard to measure, because of course those early voters aren't swing voters, the type of person who goes out a month ahead of time is somebody who was never going to vote for anyone else (polls confirm this). So this is the base getting out early, not the independents.

Now obviously that edge speaks to a much higher enthusiasm and that translates to higher turnout on election day probably. But it's extremely difficult to know how much of a difference it makes because these people were always going to vote Obama either way, they just did it early.
 
Last edited:
SOME people go out to vote early even though they are not core supporters; And the reason is that they have a hard time getting out of whatever it is they do on election day to go and vote. And who knows what the weather is going to be like?
 
You guys may have missed something here that bodes even better for Obama:
Nevertheless, Obama is leading by an average of 23 points among early voters in these five states, states which went to George W. Bush by an average of 6.5 points in 2004.
Click to expand...

If Obama has a 23 point lead among early voters in Bush states that is an un :rule10 ing believable 30 point swing.

People focus on Obama's money advantage and how this affects advertising, but I think the grass roots effect will be even larger: More campaign offices, better get-out-the vote, and much more significant coat tails than anyone since Reagan.

ETA: Obama was abused when he claimed that running a campaign counted as executive experience. All I can say is that if he can run the country as well as he has run this campaign, I will not be disappointed.
 
Last edited:
gdnp said:
...

ETA: Obama was abused when he claimed that running a campaign counted as executive experience. All I can say is that if he can run the country as well as he has run this campaign, I will not be disappointed.
Click to expand...

A nice thought. I think Obama supporters probably tend to think along those lines, myself included.

Obama's detractors see his political skills as the means by which he has covered up his inadequacies and radical ideas.
 
The latest national tracking and other polls ...

October 15 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 3 (49%-46%) -- Obama lead -3 from Oct 14
October 15 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 8 (52%-44%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 14
October 15 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 8 (48%-42%) -- Obama lead +2 from Oct 14
October 15 - GW/Battleground Tracking: Obama by 8 (51%-43%) -- Obama lead -5 from Oct 14
October 15 - Rasmussen Tracking: Obama by 5 (50%-45%) -- Unchanged from Oct 14
October 15 - Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking: Obama by 4 (48%-44%) -- Obama lead -2 from Oct 14
October 14 - Research 2000: Obama by 10 (51%-41%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 13



October 15 - Pew Research: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
October 14 - Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama by 9 (48%-39%)
October 14 - CBS News/NY Times: Obama by 12 (51%-39%-Nader 3%-Barr 1%)
October 14 - LA Times/Bloomberg: Obama by 8 (47%-39-Nader 3%-Barr 1%%)
 
Latest for the Bush State polls ...

Colorado (9)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
October 14 - Suffolk: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
October 14 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 12 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Florida (27)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 10 - Research 2000: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

Indiana (11)
October 9 - Rasmussen: McCain by 7 (50%-43%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
October 7 - Research 2000: Tied (46%-46%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)

Iowa (7)
October 11 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (54%-41%)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Nevada (5)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
October 12 - LVRJ/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 7 - Reno Gazette-Journal: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)

New Mexico (5)
October 15 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)
October 6 - Albuquerque Journal: Obama by 5 (45%-40%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

Missouri (11)
October 15 - CNN/Time: McCain by 1 (49%-48%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 13 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

North Carolina (15)
October 15 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 14 - PPP (D): Obama by 3 (46%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (48%-48%)
October 11 - WSOC-TV: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 5 (48%-43%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (49%-46%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Tied (49%-49%)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)

Ohio (20)
October 14 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 11 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 10 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)

Virginia (13)
October 15 - CNN/Time: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 9 - PPP (D): Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)

West Virginia (5)
October 15 - CNN/Time: McCain by 2 (49%-47%)
 
Malerin said:
About 1/3 of voting is expected to be early voting.
Click to expand...
Cite? 20 or so states don't have early voting, so over half the residents of the remaining states would need to be voting early (NB: not a precise calculation). This seems high to me.
 
aerosolben said:
Cite? 20 or so states don't have early voting, so over half the residents of the remaining states would need to be voting early (NB: not a precise calculation). This seems high to me.
Click to expand...

"In all, 36 of the 50 states will allow early voting this year, including many key battleground states like Ohio and Colorado. As many as one-third of all voters are expected to make their selection before Election Day."

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1841934,00.html
 
Malerin said:
"In all, 36 of the 50 states will allow early voting this year, including many key battleground states like Ohio and Colorado. As many as one-third of all voters are expected to make their selection before Election Day."

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1841934,00.html
Click to expand...
Thanks. Here's mine:

http://earlyvoting.net/states/abslaws.php

I'll note that Time is apparently including states with "Excused" early voting only (as well as DC?), and sneaks in the "as many as" weasel words. I remain unconvinced. That said, I don't think the number is completely ridiculous, and I think participants will increase to some degree.
 
The latest from the prediction markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 83.6
McCain 17.7

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 54.3
McCain 46.9

NewsFutures
Obama 79
McCain 21 :eye-poppi

Intrade
Obama 83.4
McCain 16.5 :boggled:

Yahoo Political Dashboard (YPD) Electoral College
Obama 364
McCain 174

The NewsFutures and Intrade numbers for McCain are at an all-time low since I've been tracking the markets (since June). His IEM numbers aren't at an all-time low, but within 1-point - not really good news, ouch.

In addition, the state-by-state electoral prediction markets over at the YPD are now projecting the following red-states flipping to Obama...

Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Iowa
Missouri
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida

Missouri is the real surprise - I didn't see that coming. I bet McCain didn't either.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Share this page

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom