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Poll Vault

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Undesired Walrus said:
Slight concern. Wasn't Gore up by 11 after the last debate in 2000?
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I believe it was only according to Gallup, whose polling was notoriously erratic in 2000. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

This time around, we have tools like Real Clear Politics, where we can compare trendlines of various pollsters. In this case, they're pretty unanimous in giving Obama a solid, steady lead.

edit: Here's a contemporary article from Wired, showing how difficult it was at the time to get the complete picture:
This is the first presidential election in which you don't have to be a campaign insider or subscribe to high-priced newsletters to keep up with the latest polls. Instead of waiting for media outlets to dole out polling data -- such as vital and underreported electoral college counts -- data-starved wonks can simply visit the recently established websites of the polling companies themselves.
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So it was the first time the average voter could go online and get new polling data, but he still had to jump around, compile the information, and try to make sense of it on his own.
 
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The latest Bush State polls ...

Colorado (9)
October 14 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
October 12 - PPP (D): Obama by 10 (52%-42%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Florida (27)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (51%-46%)
October 10 - Research 2000: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 7 - Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (48%-46%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (52%-45%)

Indiana (11)
October 9 - Rasmussen: McCain by 7 (50%-43%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
October 7 - Research 2000: Tied (46%-46%)
October 1 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (48%-45%)

Iowa (7)
October 11 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 13 (54%-41%)
September 27 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
September 24 - Marist: Obama by 10 (51%-41%)

Nevada (5)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 7 - Reno Gazette-Journal: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)

New Mexico (5)
October 6 - Albuquerque Journal: Obama by 5 (45%-40%)
October 2 - Rasmussen: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 2 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

Missouri (11)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 13 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 1 - CNN/Time: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)

North Carolina (15)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Tied (48%-48%)
October 11 - WSOC-TV: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 9 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Obama by 5 (48%-43%)
October 9 - Rasmussen: Obama by 1 (49%-48%)
October 7 - SurveyUSA: McCain by 3 (49%-46%)
October 7 - CNN/Time: Tied (49%-49%)
October 6 - PPP (D): Obama by 6 (50%-44%)

Ohio (20)
October 14 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 5 (50%-45%)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 13 - Marist: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
October 11 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
October 10 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
October 10 - Strategic Vision (R): Obama by 2 (48%-46%)

Virginia (13)
October 13 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (50%-47%)
October 9 - PPP (D): Obama by 8 (51%-43%)
October 6 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 2 (50%-48%)
October 6 - Suffolk: Obama by 12 (51%-39%)
October 6 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 10 (53%-43%)
 
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Latest from Gallup ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111151/Gallup-Daily-Race-Steady-Obama-Leading.aspx

October 14 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Trad.): Obama by 6 (51%-45%) -- Obama lead -1 from Oct 13
October 14 - Gallup Tracking (Likely Voters Exp.): Obama by 10 (53%-43%) -- Unchanged from Oct 13

As noted in Tuesday's report, between 50% and 52% of registered voters have favored Obama in each Gallup Poll Daily tracking report since Oct. 4. Support for McCain has been a steady 41% to 43% across the same time period. Thus, although the gap between the two candidates has varied from seven to 11 points in recent days, the preferences of registered voters have, in fact, been quite stable, with Obama averaging a nine-point lead.
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I missed a new Nevada poll from Sunday ...

Nevada (5)
October 12 - LVRJ/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
October 7 - InAdv/PollPosition: Obama by 2 (49%-47%)
October 7 - Reno Gazette-Journal: Obama by 7 (50%-43%)
October 3 - Rasmussen: Obama by 4 (51%-47%)
 
BenBurch said:
I'm very disappointed about Indiana. Yes, I know there are more Klan in Indiana than any state except Idaho, but I would have thought their influence would have waned more by now.
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Glass-is-half-empty thinking. There are other reasons than racism to vote for or against any given candidate, subject of its own thread... I'm impressed that Indiana is even in play. Many minds are open. Take heart!
 
Three recent polls on public perceptions of which campaign is running a negative campaign.

(ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Oct. 8-11, 2008. N=945 registered voters nationwide)
"So far during this campaign, do you think [see below] has been mainly attacking his opponent or mainly addressing the issues?"

Attacking Opponent: Obama 26% McCain 59%
Addressing Issues: Obama 68% McCain 35%

(Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 8-9, 2008. N=1,035 registered voters nationwide)

"Now, thinking about the tone of the campaigns run by the major party candidates this year, which -- if any -- do you think has been TOO NEGATIVE OR NASTY: [see below]?"
McCain/Palin 39% Obama/Biden 10% Both 31% Neither 17%

(FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 8-9, 2008. N=900 registered voters nationwide)

38. In general, do you think Barack Obama is running:
SCALE: 1. A positive campaign , focused on the issues (56%) 2. A negative campaign,
focused on attacks (21%) 3. (Mixed) (17%) 4. (Don’t know) (7%)

39. In general, do you think John McCain is running:
SCALE: 1. A positive campaign, focused on the issues (27%) 2. A negative campaign,
focused on attacks (51%) 3. (Mixed) (15%) 4. (Don’t know) (6%)
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BenBurch said:
I'm very disappointed about Indiana. Yes, I know there are more Klan in Indiana than any state except Idaho, but I would have thought their influence would have waned more by now.
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I also have to say that you're taking the wrong view here. The mere fact that Obama has put Indiana in play is a testament to how far things have come in that state.

Having said that, it'll be interesting to see how all the hubbub -- re: allegations of "voter fraud" and court actions (or lack thereof) on this front -- will fall out in northwestern Indiana. I'm certain of one thing: it'll be a circus :)

Honestly, I don't think the election will come down to Indiana, or any other single state. The Obama campaign is too smart for that, and my guess is they plan on winning so obviously and widely that even a high-profile court challenge won't be enough to derail a victory.
 
BenBurch said:
I'm very disappointed about Indiana. Yes, I know there are more Klan in Indiana than any state except Idaho, but I would have thought their influence would have waned more by now.
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Come, now. Just because someone supports McCain over Obama does not make him or her a KKK sympathizer. The republicans could have chosen a much worse candidate. Is there anyone on the Republican side who was in the race this year you would have preferred to McCain?
 
Obama ends the day with an RCP average above 50% for the first time* (50.2%)

His 8.1% lead over McCain is also a new record.

McCain's 42.1% is his lowest score since August 18.



*edit: Correction--he broke through yesterday with 50.1%
 
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gdnp said:
Come, now. Just because someone supports McCain over Obama does not make him or her a KKK sympathizer. The republicans could have chosen a much worse candidate. Is there anyone on the Republican side who was in the race this year you would have preferred to McCain?
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No, but I know Indiana. And I know literal Nazis in Indiana (I went to school with some of them) and I know that in the 1920 the State Government of Indiana was literally the Klan. And they and their sympathizers are absolutely several percent of the vote there.
 
Puppycow said:
Three recent polls on public perceptions of which campaign is running a negative campaign.
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One more data point from the CBS/NY Times poll:

1015-nat-webPOLLA.jpg


(Link to story)
 
Must-read post from Nate Silver about early voters. Obama has big leads relative to the polls among early voters.

We should caveat that these are not hard-and-fast numbers. Estimates of early voting results are subject to the same statistical vagaries as any other sort of subgroup analysis, such as response bias and small sample sizes.

Nevertheless, Obama is leading by an average of 23 points among early voters in these five states, states which went to George W. Bush by an average of 6.5 points in 2004.

Is this a typical pattern for a Democrat? Actually, it's not. According to a study by Kate Kenski at the University of Arizona, early voters leaned Republican in both 2000 and 2004; with Bush earning 62.2 percent of their votes against Al Gore, and 60.4 percent against John Kerry. In the past, early voters have also tended to be older than the voting population as a whole and more male than the population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama or most other Democrats.

Now certainly, early voters tend to be your stauncher partisans rather than your uncommitted voters -- just 1-2 percent of early voters in 2000 and 2004 reported that they would have voted differently if they'd waited until election day. So it's unlikely that John McCain is actually losing all that many persuadable voters to the early voter tallies.

What these results would seem to suggest, however, is that there are fairly massive advantages for the Democrats in enthusiasm and/or turnout operations. They imply that Obama is quite likely to turn out his base in large numbers; the question is whether the Republicans will be able to do the same.
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I don't know if this is a surefire sign of a coming landslide, but it sure seems to point in that direction to me.
 
Zogby stands alone as saying the race is a dead heat, with just a 3.8 lead for Obama, not even a point outside the margin of error:

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1587


Drudge blasted this news from his front page last night. But that early voting stuff tells me McCain can't just pull even in the polls, he now has to pull 2 points ahead, because on election day he has to make up ground on the early voters.
 
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